Apple Inc., AAPL, US0378331005, NASDAQ, USD

2 · Forecasts

3 · Executive Summary

• Wave position. AAPL is in Supercycle (V) → Cycle III → Primary ③ → Intermediate (3), an extended third at every degree. Inside it, Minor 1–4 are complete and Minor 5 is underway from the 319.35 low of 23 July 2026.
• Key signal. The 334.99 → 319.35 pullback retraced only 17.5% of Minor 3 — classify_pullback → fourth_wave_like — and the 23–24 July rebound subdivides impulsively: read as a corrective zigzag its c leg would be 3.70× its a leg, which the gate flags as pitfall_C_gt_1618_of_A. That is the single strongest piece of evidence separating scenario A from B.
• Top target. 350.99 — where the base-range 2.0 projection (169.21/260.10) meets the Intermediate (3) 2-4 channel's upper parallel between 6 and 16 August 2026; stretch target 356.84 (Minor 5 = Minor 1) on 15–25 August.
• Biggest risk. The three scenarios are separated by only 3 percentage points — genuinely low conviction between them. The concrete risk is scenario B: a daily close back below 319.35 would re-open Minor 4 toward 313.87 / 300.81. Fibonacci confluence across the count is mediocre (fib_score 0.52): Minor 2 retraced 0.944 of Minor 1 and Minute ii 0.989 of Minute i, both far from any standard ratio.
• Confidence: moderate (0.63). The gate returns valid: true with no failures and no confidence caps, but the guideline score is only 0.68 — Minor 4 is a zigzag like Minor 2 (alternation fails) and ends above the sub-wave-four range of Minor 3. Notably, no valid “the top is in” count exists: both terminal labelings were rejected by the gate.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Current wave: Minor 5, Minor degree, up, from 319.35 on 23 July 2026 (1-hour stamp 09:30). Last print 333.07 on 24 July 2026 — 1.92 below the 334.99 all-time high. Every parent wave is a third that is still unfolding: Intermediate (3) of Primary ③ of Cycle III of Supercycle (V).

Confidence rationale

The gate (validate_count.py over the full nested tree against the daily file) returns valid: true — 13 pattern-rule, 19 subdivision and 15 pivot-extreme checks, zero failures, zero near-miss caveats. R1 / R2 / R3 all pass. Three items were returned pass: null for analyst resolution and are resolved below. Soft scores: guideline 0.678, fib 0.519, indicator 0.633; blended with the default 0.50 / 0.25 / 0.25 weights this gives a calibrated confidence of 0.627, with no caps applied (caps_applied: []) — every Intermediate-and-higher impulse in the tree carries a real, verified five-wave decomposition (subdivision_verified: true), the extension sits in wave 3 at every degree (extension_fragility → fragile: false), no leg is unverified, and the premature-termination test was run rather than assumed.

Resolution of the gate's judgment items

• Minor 3 · pitfall_wave4_retrace_gt_50pct_w3 (W4 retraces 61% of W3). Resolved: not an R3 violation. Minute iv bottomed at 273.75, a full 11.59 pts (4.4%) above Minute i's 262.16 top, so the overlap rule is intact with a comfortable cushion. The depth is unusual but rule-legal, and it alternates against the very brief, very deep Minute ii (one session, 98.9%).
• Intermediate (3) and Minor 3 · not_all_of_1_3_5_extended. Resolved: confirmed. In each impulse exactly one sub-wave is extended — Minor 3 (89.48 vs 37.49 and an in-progress fifth) inside Intermediate (3), and Minute iii (71.70 vs 16.65 and 61.24) inside Minor 3.
• Intermediate (3) W4 · generic `corrective` accepted. Resolved deliberately. The 1-hour data resolves Minor 4 as a Minute a-b-c zigzag: 334.99 (17 Jul 09:30) → 322.22 (21 Jul 09:30) → 329.60 (21 Jul 11:30) → 319.35 (23 Jul 09:30); wave B retraces 0.538 of A and wave C is 0.92 of A. It is carried in the tree as a generic corrective because the 20 July session printed its high before its low, so the a-b-c cannot be represented at daily resolution without failing pivot-extreme verification.

Alternate count

Alt B — Minor 4 unfinished (33%). The 319.35 low was only wave A of a larger Minor 4 flat or double three, and the 24 July surge is its wave B; wave C would carry down to 318.80–308.60 (1.0–1.65 × A) and into the 313.87 / 300.81 retracement band of Minor 3 during August before Minor 5 begins. The medium-term destination is unchanged, only the near-term direction reverses. It is invalidated on a daily close above 334.99. Evidence for it: the 24 July rally carried only 0.74× the 20-day average volume — a classic wave-B signature. Evidence against it: wave B of a flat must subdivide as a three, and the 23–24 July advance does not (c = 3.70 × a).

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Sub-wave structure

Intermediate (3) (243.42, 20 Jan 2026 → in progress): Minor 1 243.42 → 280.91 · Minor 2 → 245.51 · Minor 3 → 334.99 (extended, 2.39 × Minor 1) · Minor 4 → 319.35 · Minor 5 in progress.
Minor 3 decomposes into Minute i 245.51 → 262.16 · ii → 245.70 · iii → 317.40 (extended) · iv → 273.75 (W-X-Y double zigzag: 317.40 → 287.38, → 302.42, → 273.75) · v → 334.99.
Minor 4 (1-hour): a 334.99 → 322.22 · b → 329.60 · c → 319.35 — a Minute zigzag, B = 0.538 × A, C = 0.92 × A.
Minor 5 (30-minute): (i) 319.35 → 323.30 · (ii) → 319.76 · (iii) → 334.37, with (iv)/(v) still to come.

Fibonacci targets for Minor 5 — impulse_w5_targets(243.42, 280.91, 245.51, 334.99, 319.35, extended="3")

Indicator readings at the wave pivots

At the 24 July close: RSI_14 65.3, UO 63.3, volume 47.5M (0.74× the 20-day average), price above SMA_50 (306.23), SMA_100 (285.10) and SMA_200 (275.98) — a golden-cross trend structure that supports the impulsive Primary count. On the 30-minute chart RSI reached 77.1 during the 24 July advance.

Fibonacci confluence detail — fib_confluence_score → 0.519

Guideline checklist — guideline_score → 0.678

Indicator checklist — indicator_confluence_score → 0.633

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Precision-layer signals (1-hour / 30-minute)

Alignment narrative

Monthly, weekly, daily and 1-hour all read up and all sit inside third waves of their respective degrees — the highest-alignment configuration this method produces, and the reason a bearish primary was never a candidate. Price is above SMA_50/100/200 on the daily and above SMA_50/200 on the 1-hour.

⚠ The one conflict is at the 30-minute layer. Minuette (iii) of Minor 5 topped at 334.37 on 24 July 12:00 and the last four half-hour bars drifted sideways with UO falling from 74.1 to 48.4 while RSI held near 70 — a short-term momentum divergence inside an otherwise strong advance. Resolution: this is a Minuette fourth wave inside Minor 5, not a reversal — it is one degree below the 1-hour Minor structure and cannot by itself overturn it. It does explain why price stalled just under 334.99 into the close, and it is exactly the kind of pause scenario B would need to convert into a wave-C decline. The discriminator is mechanical, not visual: a break below 319.35 hands the count to B; a close above 334.99 settles it for A.

7 · Waves — 1-Hour

8 · Waves — Daily

9 · Waves — Weekly

10 · Disclaimer