Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $202.73 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Adobe is in a severe Primary-degree decline; from the 2024 highs (~$638) it has fallen in stages to a fresh low of $190.12 (18 Jun 2026), far below a falling SMA-200 ($291.45). Bias is bearish/corrective while under ~$275; a small bounce is underway but the trend is firmly down.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bear continuation to new lows
Bearish
(C)/wave 3 down
$230 (bounce)
$190
$175
$275.44
50%
Oversold bounce / base
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
$230
$243
$275
$190.12
30%
Sideways base then up
Bearish
Basing range
$230
$210
$190
$275.44
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is far below the falling SMA-200 ($291.45). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree decline; price just made a fresh low ($190.12) far below a falling SMA-200.
Key signal: A persistent downtrend - lower highs and lower lows since 2024 - with daily RSI ~37; the recent bounce is corrective.
Top target: Bounces toward $230-$243 are sell zones; a break of $190.12 opens $175 and lower.
Biggest risk: A daily close back above $275.44 (the early-June high) would negate the immediate bearish case and signal a base.
Confidence: Medium-high on the downtrend bias given the SMA-200 position; the precise sub-count near the lows is less certain.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Adobe has been in a Primary-degree decline since the 2024 highs near $638. The drop accelerated through $422.95 (May 2025) and broke to a fresh low of $190.12 on 18 Jun 2026. The current direction is down, with price far below a falling SMA-200; the structure is corrective/bearish and a confirmed base has not yet formed - the recent uptick is a small counter-trend bounce.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Prior bull top
~$638 (2024) - end of the advance
Primary decline (active)
In progress - multi-leg down
Lower high
$422.95 (May 2025), then accelerating decline
Recent low
$190.12 (18 Jun 2026)
Current position
Near the lows, far below SMA-200
Confidence rationale: Price far below a falling SMA-200, a clear sequence of lower highs/lows, and weak momentum support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: Adobe is deeply discounted from its highs and a higher low above $190.12 would hint a base is forming, which is why a bullish alternate is non-trivial.
Alternate count (30%): the $190.12 low completed the decline (or a large wave) and the stock is basing; a higher low above $190.12 plus a daily close above $275.44 would confirm a recovery. Invalidation of the corrective primary: daily close above $275.44.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is the decline toward / from the $190.12 low. While price holds below $230-$243 and the SMA-200, the path of least resistance stays down, toward and potentially through $190.12.
Item
Reading
Decline (from May-2025 high)
$232.83 ($422.95 -> $190.12)
Resistance band (bounce)
23.6% $255.30 / 38.2% $242.85 / 50% $232.78
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$291.45 (falling)
Key support / invalidation-down
$190.12 (18 Jun 2026 low)
Extension target if broken
$175 then lower
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Lower high
2025-05-21
$422.95
~55
~55
steady
Failed bounce; trend down
Interim low
2026-02-24
$244.28
oversold
low
elevated
Mid-decline low
Lower high
2026-06-01
$275.44
~50
~50
steady
Counter-trend bounce peak
Fresh low
2026-06-18
$190.12
~37
~40
elevated
Latest capitulation low
Current bar
2026-06-26
$202.73
37.0
40.3
-
Weak bounce far below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $275.44 negates the immediate bearish count; a decisive break below $190.12 confirms the next leg down.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary down
Down
Bearish
$190 / $175
$275 / $291
✓
Primary
Daily
(C)/3 down
Down
Bearish
$190.12
$230 / $243
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Counter-bounce
Up
Neutral
$190.12
$203.48
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$191.80
$203.48
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$230-$243 rejection
$190 / $175
$276
1h reversal + daily close < $190.12
Reversal long (counter-trend, risky)
higher low > $190.12
$230 / $243
$190
daily close > $230, then > $275.44
Alignment narrative: All timeframes align bearish/corrective with only intraday bounces against the trend. The bias remains lower while price is below $230-$243 and the SMA-200; only a daily close back above $275.44 would change the structure to constructive.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Down-leg - down
2026-06-04 09:30
2026-06-18 09:30
$265.94
$190.12
Bounce - up
2026-06-18 09:30
2026-06-24 09:30
$190.12
$202.41
Pullback - down
2026-06-24 09:30
2026-06-25 09:30
$202.41
$191.80
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-25 09:30
-
$191.80
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Prior bull - up
2022-09-27
2024-02-02
$274.73
$638.25
Primary decline - down (in progress)
2024-02-02
-
$638.25
-
Lower high
2025-04-07
2025-05-21
$332.01
$422.95
Decline - down
2025-05-21
2026-06-18
$422.95
$190.12
Bounce - up (in progress)
2026-06-18
-
$190.12
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Prior bull (to 2024 high) - up
2022-09-27
2024-02-02
$274.73
$638.25
Primary decline - down (in progress)
2024-02-02
-
$638.25
-
Decline to fresh low - down
2025-05-21
2026-06-18
$422.95
$190.12
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.