Airbus SE, AIR.PA, NL0000235190, Euronext Paris, EUR
Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €191.90 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Airbus is in a healthy uptrend; the Mar-2026 pullback to €157.42 completed an Intermediate (2)/(4), and Intermediate (3)/(5) up is in progress, printing €196.90 (25 Jun) just shy of the €221.30 high. Price is back above a rising SMA-200 (€189.75); above €157.42 the bias is bullish.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bull (3)/(5) to new highs
Bullish
Intermediate up
€201
€221
€245
€157.42
60%
(4) pullback, then (5)
Bearish
Minor (4) then (5)
€185
€182
€235 (later)
€157.42
25%
Failed - back toward 157
Bearish
Deeper correction
€182
€170
€157
€221.30
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are not below it and the highs are above it; price also sits above the rising SMA-200 (€189.75). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Intermediate (3)/(5) up within a Primary bull; the Mar-2026 low at €157.42 anchors the advance.
Key signal: Price reclaimed the rising SMA-200 (€189.75) with RSI ~63 and UO ~57 - momentum supports the up-leg.
Top target: A push through €201 opens the €221.30 prior high and a measured €245 extension.
Biggest risk: A failure back below ~€182 then €157.42 would void the bullish impulse read.
Confidence: Medium-high - trend, structure and momentum align bullish; the caveat is proximity to overhead resistance at €201/€221.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Airbus remains in a Primary-degree bull. After the €221.30 high (14 Jan 2026) it corrected to €157.42 on 31 Mar 2026, an Intermediate (2)/(4), and has since rallied impulsively to €196.90 (25 Jun 2026). The current direction is up, with price above the rising SMA-200; the advance targets the prior high and beyond unless €157.42 fails.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull (active)
In progress - multi-year uptrend
Intermediate (1)/(3)
Complete - advance into the €221.30 high
Intermediate (2)/(4)
Complete (€221.30 -> €157.42)
Intermediate (3)/(5) (current)
In progress - up from €157.42, at €196.90
Next objective
€201 -> €221 -> €245
Confidence rationale: A clean impulsive rally off €157.42, price above a rising SMA-200, and supportive RSI/UO confirm the bullish impulse. Counter-evidence: the advance is approaching strong overhead supply at €201-€221, so a fourth-wave pause is plausible before new highs.
Alternate count (25%): the rally off €157.42 is only wave 1 of a larger advance and a Minor (4) pullback to ~€182 precedes wave (5); a bullish variation, not a reversal. Invalidation of the bullish primary: daily close below €157.42.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (3)/(5) up. Pullbacks toward €185 (38.2%) should hold; a break of €201 confirms continuation toward the €221.30 high.
Item
Reading
Up-leg length (so far)
€39.48 (€157.42 -> €196.90)
Support (of up-leg)
23.6% €198.90 / 38.2% €185.05
Prior high / first target
€221.30 (14 Jan 2026)
Extension target
~€245 (1.272x of the prior swing)
Invalidation-down
€157.42 (31 Mar 2026 low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Intermediate (1)/(3) high
2026-01-14
€221.30
overbought
high
-
Prior swing high
Intermediate (2)/(4) low
2026-03-31
€157.42
oversold
low
elevated
Correction low; launch point
Swing high
2026-05-06
€191.92
~65
~60
steady
First test of the up-leg
Recent high
2026-06-25
€196.90
~64
~57
steady
Higher high; momentum intact
Current bar
2026-06-26
€191.90
62.9
57.1
-
Constructive above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below €157.42 voids the bullish impulse; below ~€182 first warns of a deeper Minor (4) pause.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary bull
Up
Bullish
€157 / €182
€221
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (3)/(5) up
Up
Bullish
€185 / €157
€201 / €221
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Minor up-leg
Up
Bullish
€187.12
€194.86 / €201
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro pullback
Down
Neutral
€190.34
€196.90
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Trend long (with trend)
€187-€191 pullback hold
€201 / €221
€182
1h close > €196.90
Breakout add
close > €201
€221 / €245
€185
daily close > €201
Alignment narrative: Higher timeframes are bullish and aligned; only the 30-minute shows a minor pullback. Buy-the-dip behaviour dominates while price holds above €185 and the SMA-200; a daily close above €201 opens the prior high.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (2)/(4) low
2026-03-31 09:00
2026-03-31 09:00
€157.42
€157.42
Minor 1 - up
2026-03-31 09:00
2026-05-06 13:00
€157.42
€191.92
Minor 2 - down
2026-05-06 13:00
2026-05-18 09:00
€191.92
€164.74
Minor 3 - up
2026-05-18 09:00
2026-06-25 14:00
€164.74
€196.90
Minor 4 - down (in progress)
2026-06-25 14:00
-
€196.90
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2022-10-03
2026-01-14
€86.52
€221.30
Intermediate (1)/(3) - up
2024-07-25
2026-01-14
€126.66
€221.30
Intermediate (2)/(4) - down
2026-01-14
2026-03-31
€221.30
€157.42
Intermediate (3)/(5) - up (in progress)
2026-03-31
-
€157.42
-
Minor 1 of (3)
2026-03-31
2026-05-06
€157.42
€191.92
Minor 2 of (3)
2026-05-06
2026-05-18
€191.92
€164.74
Minor 3 of (3)
2026-05-18
2026-06-25
€164.74
€196.90
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (multi-year) - up
2022-10-03
2026-01-14
€86.52
€221.30
Intermediate (2)/(4) - down
2026-01-14
2026-03-31
€221.30
€157.42
Intermediate (3)/(5) - up (in progress)
2026-03-31
-
€157.42
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.