Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $521.58 (26 June 2026). Primary count: AMD is in a powerful, extended Primary-degree advance and just set a fresh all-time high at $562.99 (22 Jun 2026); from the $76.48 low (Apr 2025) the move is a five-wave impulse with an extended fifth, price far above a rising SMA-200 ($270.47). Above $188.22 the impulse holds; the steep slope flags rising exhaustion risk near the highs.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bull (5) extends to new highs
Bullish
Intermediate (5) up
$580
$600
$650
$188.22
50%
Pullback then resume up
Bearish
Minor (4) then (5)
$474
$420
$600 (later)
$188.22
30%
Blow-off, sharp correction
Bearish
Intermediate correction
$460
$420
$360
$562.99
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars show both lows below and highs above the SMA-18 (volatile chop near the highs); price is far above the rising SMA-200 ($270.47). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Extended Intermediate (5) of a Primary impulse; the Mar-2026 low ($188.22) anchors a steep advance to the $562.99 ATH.
Key signal: Price is far above a rising SMA-200 with RSI ~56 - a strong uptrend, momentum still constructive but the slope is parabolic.
Top target: Continuation projects $580-$650; pullbacks toward $474 (23.6%) should hold.
Biggest risk: A near-vertical fifth at the highs is vulnerable; a break of $188.22 voids the impulse, $420 warns of a deeper (4).
Confidence: Medium-high on trend, lower on remaining upside given the mature, steep wave position.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
AMD is in a powerful Primary-degree advance. From the $76.48 low (8 Apr 2025) it rose in a five-wave impulse - Intermediate (4) bottomed at $188.22 (Mar 2026) - and wave (5) extended parabolically to a fresh all-time high of $562.99 (22 Jun 2026). The current direction is up, with price far above the rising SMA-200; the advance is mature and steep but intact above $188.22.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary impulse (active)
In progress - five waves up from $76.48
Intermediate (4) low
$188.22 (Mar 2026)
Intermediate (5) (current)
Extended - ATH $562.99
Momentum
RSI ~56 - constructive
Next objective
$580 -> $600 -> $650
Confidence rationale: Price far above a rising SMA-200, a clean steep impulse into new highs, and constructive momentum confirm the bullish wave. Counter-evidence: the advance is near-vertical and mature, so exhaustion/blow-off risk is rising; watch for bearish divergence on the next high.
Alternate count (30%): the advance is even more extended and recent action is wave 3 of (5), implying still-higher targets before a top; a bullish variation. Invalidation of the bullish impulse: a daily close below $188.22.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is an extended Intermediate (5). Shallow pullbacks toward $474 are buyable while the structure holds; fresh highs above $562.99 keep momentum targets ($580-$650) in play.
Item
Reading
Wave (5) leg
$374.77 ($188.22 -> $562.99)
Support (of the up-leg)
23.6% $474 / 38.2% $420
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$270.47 (rising)
Momentum targets
$580 -> $600 -> $650
Invalidation-down
$188.22 (Mar 2026 (4) low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary low
2025-04-08
$76.48
oversold
low
high
Launch of the advance
Intermediate (4) low
2026-03-03
$188.22
~45
~45
contracting
Healthy 4th-wave dip
Interim high
2026-01-23
$266.96
~65
~62
steady
Earlier swing high
Wave (5)/ATH
2026-06-22
$562.99
~60
~58
spike
Parabolic all-time high
Current bar
2026-06-26
$521.58
56.1
55.4
-
Strong; far above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below $188.22 voids the bullish impulse; near term, a loss of $420 would warn of a deeper Minor (4).
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary impulse up
Up
Bullish
$420 / $270
$562.99 (ATH)
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5) extended
Up
Bullish
$474 / $420
$580 / $650
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Minor up-leg / chop
Up
Bullish
$502.61
$562.99
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro pullback
Down
Neutral
$502.61
$550.88
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Trend long (with trend)
$500-$510 pullback hold
$580 / $600
$474
1h close > $562.99
Breakout add
close > $562.99
$600 / $650
$500
daily close > $562.99
Alignment narrative: All timeframes are bullish; intraday is choppy near the highs. Dips are bought while price holds above $474 and the SMA-200; the steep slope means a blow-off and sharp correction become more likely as the move matures - watch momentum at new highs.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Minor advance - up
2026-05-19 09:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$393.36
$562.99
Pullback - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-23 09:30
$562.99
$506.81
Bounce - up
2026-06-23 09:30
2026-06-25 09:30
$506.81
$550.88
Pullback (in progress) - down
2026-06-25 09:30
-
$550.88
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse - up
2025-04-08
2026-06-22
$76.48
$562.99
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-04-08
2025-10-29
$76.48
$267.08
Intermediate (4) - down
2025-10-29
2026-03-03
$267.08
$188.22
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-03-03
2026-06-22
$188.22
$562.99
Pullback from ATH - down (in progress)
2026-06-22
-
$562.99
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse (off 2025 low) - up
2025-04-08
2026-06-22
$76.48
$562.99
Intermediate (4) - down
2025-10-29
2026-03-03
$267.08
$188.22
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-03-03
2026-06-22
$188.22
$562.99
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.