Last close: $232.07 (24 July 2026, 15:30). Minor 2 of Intermediate (3) is still falling in its wave c — the 208–216 channel × Fibonacci zone is the buy area, 196.00 is the line that voids the whole bullish count, and every “the top is in” reframe fails R3 mechanically.
| # | Scenario | Direction | Next expected wave (degree) | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A — Minor 2 zigzag completing, then Minor 3 up Primary count. Wave c of the Minor 2 zigzag drops into the 208–216 channel × Fibonacci confluence zone; Minor 3 of Intermediate (3) then resumes the Primary ③ advance. | Down first, then Up | Minor 3 of Intermediate (3) — Minor | 264.70 0.382 fwd grid | 296.24 1.0 × Minor 1 | 353.30 1.618 × Int. (1) | 196.00 | 37 % |
| 2 | B — Correction already over; Minor 3 running from 225.55 Minor 2 completed on 25 Jun 2026; the July slide is a deep Minute (ii) of Minor 3. | Up | Minute (iii) of Minor 3 — Minute | 258.08 | 278.56 | 308.11 | 225.55 | 32 % |
| 3 | C — Minor 2 extends as a double three (W-X-Y) The 258.08 high was the X wave; a final Y leg carries to the 0.854–0.886 retracement / Y = W equality. | Down | Minute Y of Minor 2 — Minute | 213.67 | 208.05 | 205.07 | 196.00 | 31 % |
Probabilities are the normalised calibrated confidences of the three surviving counts (scenario_probabilities); they are honest estimates, not guarantees. Two further counts — “Primary ③ complete at 278.56, Primary ④ correcting” and “Cycle III complete at 278.56, Cycle IV correcting” — were built and rejected by the mechanical gate: both violate R3 at Cycle degree (wave 4 into wave 1 territory) by 14.5 % and 4.9 % of wave 3 respectively. Neither margin is a near-miss and neither degree is sub-Minor, so no near-miss caveat applies. No confidence caps were triggered (caps_applied: []).
Step 0 · Base channel & trigger. The Primary ③ base channel is fitted to the two wave lows 161.38 (7 Apr 2025) and 196.00 (17 Feb 2026), with the upper parallel drawn through the 258.60 Intermediate (1) top. The 278.56 all-time high touched that upper line to within 0.1 % of channel width (channel_touch) — the channel is validated, and the 5 May top is a channel-boundary termination. Lower line: 213.20 on 24 Jul 2026, rising to 219.01 by mid-September and 230.73 by year-end. Upper line: 287.41 today, 304.94 at year-end.
Trigger status: NOT fired. channel_breakout over 2026 data returns None. A daily close above 258.08 signals Minor 2 complete and Minor 3 under way; a decisive close above the 278.56 ATH activates the base projection. Last close 232.07.
Step 1 · Retracement grid of the last completed advance (Minor 1, 196.00 → 278.56): 0.382 = 247.02 · 0.5 = 237.28 · 0.618 = 227.54 · 0.764 = 215.48 · 0.786 = 213.67 · 0.854 = 208.05 · 0.886 = 205.41. The 0.618 level has already been exceeded (low 225.55).
Step 2 · Base projection (anchor low 196.00 → anchor high 278.56, range 82.56) — CONDITIONAL, not active until price closes above 278.56: 1.382 = 310.10 · 1.618 = 329.58 · 2.0 = 361.12.
| Leg | Direction | Target zone | Date window | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 2, wave c | Down | 208.05 – 216.00 | 2026-08-03 → 2026-09-30 | 0.764–0.854 retracement of Minor 1 × Primary ③ base line (213.20 → 219.01) × the Minor 2 zigzag C-termination line (211.33 on 14 Aug). channel_confluence returns 213.20–215.50 for 24 Jul – 14 Aug. |
| Minor 3 | Up | 290.00 – 310.10 | 2026-11-15 → 2027-03-31 | Minor 3 = 1.0 × Minor 1 from the Minor 2 low (296.24); upper channel line ≈ 305 at year-end; 1.382 × base range = 310.10 once activated. |
| Minor 4 | Down | 254.96 – 264.70 | 2027-04-01 → 2027-06-15 | Forward grid of the projected 213.67 → 296.24 leg: 0.382 = 264.70, 0.5 = 254.96, 0.618 = 245.21. |
| Minor 5 / Intermediate (3) top | Up | 345.00 – 361.12 | 2027-07-01 → 2027-12-31 | Intermediate (3) = 1.618 × Intermediate (1) from 196.00 = 353.30; 2.0 × base range = 361.12; upper channel ≈ 325 mid-2027 (semilog would sit higher). |
Step 3 · Forward retracement grids — projected Minor 3 leg 213.67 → 296.24: 264.70 / 254.96 / 245.21. Projected Intermediate (3) leg 196.00 → 353.30: 293.21 / 274.65 / 256.09.
AMZN.roadmap.json, generated 2026-07-24, as-of 2026-07-23)Only one further session (24 July 2026) has elapsed, so the grade is necessarily preliminary.
| Item | Previous call | Outcome on fresh data | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trigger | Reclaim 258.08 (daily close) → Primary ⑤; close above 278.56 activates the base projection; “neither has fired”. | Highest close since = 249.99 (20 Jul). Neither level closed through. | Correct — still not fired |
| Base projection 218.00 → 278.56 (301.69 / 315.99 / 339.12) | Inactive until the ATH is cleared. | Still inactive. Re-anchored this run to 196.00 → 278.56 (the Intermediate (3) origin), giving 310.10 / 329.58 / 361.12. | Pending — re-anchored |
| Leg 1 — “Primary ④ (C)” down, zone 215.00 – 232.00, window 2026-07-24 → 2026-10-01 | Decline into 215–232 by early October. | Price fell to 231.35 / closed 232.07 on 24 Jul — the zone was entered at its upper edge on day one of the window; direction correct. | Hit (partial, upper edge) |
| Leg 2 — “Primary ⑤” up, 300 – 345, window 2026-11-01 → 2027-06-30 | New all-time high in H1 2027. | Window has not opened. | Pending |
| Forward grid 218 → 315 (277.95 / 266.50 / 255.05) | Pullback zone of the projected advance. | Not yet applicable. | Pending |
| Structural premise (labels) | Primary ③ complete at 278.56; Primary ④ correcting. | That labelling now fails the mechanical gate: with the 225.55 low in place, Primary ④ sits 6.9 % below the end of Primary ① (242.52) — an R3 violation of 14.5 % of wave 3 at Cycle degree. | Invalidated — count revised |
Net: the previous roadmap’s price path is on track (down into the low-230s/high-210s through Q3), but its degree labelling has been invalidated by the gate and is replaced by the Minor 2-of-Intermediate-(3) reading. The revised downside zone (208–216) sits just below the old 215–232 box.
| Active wave | Minor 2 (corrective zigzag, wave c in progress) — down |
| Degree | Minor, nested in Intermediate (3) → Primary ③ → Cycle III |
| Started | 5 May 2026 at 278.56 (all-time high) |
| Position now | 232.07 (24 Jul 2026, 15:30) — 0.642 of Minor 1 retraced at the 225.55 low |
| Degree | Label | Pattern | Start | End | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | III | impulse | 2023-01-06 · 81.43 | — | in progress |
| Primary | ③ | impulse | 2025-04-07 · 161.38 | — | in progress |
| Intermediate | (3) | impulse | 2026-02-17 · 196.00 | — | in progress |
| Minor | 2 | corrective zigzag | 2026-05-05 · 278.56 | — | in progress ← current |
| Minute | c | impulse (down) | 2026-07-16 · 258.08 | — | in progress |
| Minuette | (iii) | impulse (down) | 2026-07-20 · 252.89 | — | in progress |
validate_count.py returned valid: true — R1 (wave 2 not beyond the start of wave 1), R2 (wave 3 never the shortest) and R3 (wave 4 not beyond the end of wave 1) all pass at every labelled impulse, across 20 pattern-rule, 32 subdivision and 27 pivot-extreme checks. Three items were left to analyst judgment, all the same rule — “never are waves 1, 3 and 5 all extended” at Intermediate (1), Minor 1 and Minute a: in each case identify_extension returns extended_wave “3” with fragile: false, so only one sub-wave is extended and the rule is satisfied. near_miss_caveats is empty.
Scores: guideline_score 0.8267 (the two misses are alternation — waves 2 and 4 are both zigzag-family at Intermediate (1), Minor 1 and Minute a, costing the weight-3 “almost always” and the weight-2 “wave 4 is usually a flat/triangle” items), fib_score 0.6600 over 18 measured relationships, indicator_score 0.3947 over the two labelled motive impulses. Blended at 0.5/0.25/0.25 → confidence 0.6770, with no calibration caps: every Intermediate-and-higher impulse in the active count is decomposed and its pivots verified, the extension sits in wave 3 everywhere (no fragile fifth), and the premature-termination reframes were built and gated rather than assumed away.
Alternate (32 %): Minor 2 already completed at 225.55 on 25 June 2026 as a zigzag (a 278.56 → 233.59, b → 249.51, c → 225.55) and Minor 3 is already running: Minute (i) 225.55 → 258.08, Minute (ii) the present decline (0.822 retraced). Upside then resumes directly toward 258.08 / 278.56 / 308.11. Invalidated below 225.55. It scores lower mainly on the zigzag proportions — wave c would be only 0.53 × wave a and wave b would retrace just 0.354 of wave a, both outside the usual ranges — and because the 225.55 low sits 0.21 of channel width above the Primary ③ base line rather than on it.
Hard invalidation of the primary count: 196.00. A daily close below it voids Intermediate (3), because Minor 2 may not move beyond the start of Minor 1. Below 161.38 the whole of Primary ③ is void.
| Wave | Minor 2 of Intermediate (3) — corrective zigzag, wave c in progress |
| Direction / status | Down · in progress since 5 May 2026 |
| Start | 2026-05-05 · 278.56 (all-time high, on the Primary ③ upper channel line) |
| Retracement so far | 0.642 of Minor 1 (196.00 → 278.56) at the 225.55 low; 0.571 at the 24 Jul low of 231.35 |
| Sub-structure | a = 278.56 → 225.55 (five Minuette waves down, extended third, W1 ≈ W5 at 1.03) · b = 225.55 → 258.08 (zigzag, 0.6137 retracement of wave a) · c = 258.08 → in progress |
| Wave c so far | (i) 258.08 → 243.59 · (ii) 243.59 → 252.89 (0.642 retracement) · (iii) 252.89 → 231.35 and unfinished |
| Invalidation | 196.00 (Minor 2 may not move beyond the start of Minor 1) |
Wave b sub-count: the Minuette a-b-c inside Minute b is deliberately left unlabelled — the 29 June daily bar prints its low (233.80) before its high (249.71), and the supplied 1-hour file disagrees with the daily bar on that session (hourly high 252.52 vs daily 249.71), so the sequence is not resolvable from the data.
Data handling: the final daily bar (2026-07-24) arrived with an empty Close and empty UO/SMA fields. It was repaired, not dropped — Close set to the true last print from the 1-hour file (232.07 at 15:30) and the SMA_18/50/100/200 recomputed; the bar’s own Open/High/Low (234.37 / 234.95 / 231.35) were already complete and are used for the 231.35 pivot. UO is left blank for that bar. Separately, the 1-hour file carries a bad tick (a 223.68 low at 2026-07-23 11:30) that the daily bar’s 232.05 low contradicts; the daily lows are treated as authoritative.
| Measurement | Basis | Level | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 2 low — 0.618 retr. of Minor 1 | 196.00 → 278.56 | 227.54 | Already exceeded (low 225.55) |
| Minor 2 low — 0.764 retr. | 196.00 → 278.56 | 215.48 | Base-channel line runs 213.20 → 219.01 across Aug–Sep |
| Minor 2 low — 0.786 retr. | 196.00 → 278.56 | 213.67 | Channel × Fibonacci confluence (fib_line_confluence: the base line reaches 213.67 between 24 Jul and 16 Aug) |
| Minor 2 low — 0.854 retr. | 196.00 → 278.56 | 208.05 | Lower edge of the target box |
| Minor 2 low — c = a | 258.08 − 53.01 | 205.07 | Scenario C objective; also the 0.886 retracement (205.41) |
| Minor 2 low — c = 0.618 × a | 258.08 − 32.76 | 225.32 | Shallow case — reached on 25 Jun |
| Minor 3 — 0.618 × Minor 1 | from 213.67 | 264.70 | First upside objective; equals the 0.382 forward grid |
| Minor 3 — 1.0 × Minor 1 | from 213.67 | 296.24 | Confluence with the upper channel line (≈305 at year-end) |
| Minor 3 — 1.618 × Minor 1 | from 213.67 | 347.26 | Overlaps the Intermediate (3) measured move |
| Intermediate (3) — 1.0 × Int. (1) | from 196.00 | 293.22 | Minimum objective for the whole third wave |
| Intermediate (3) — 1.618 × Int. (1) | from 196.00 | 353.30 | Primary objective; base projection 2.0 × range = 361.12 |
Daily (24 Jul, repaired bar): Close 232.07, Volume 34.99 M, RSI_14 38.6, UO n/a (43 on 23 Jul). Price is below SMA_50 (249.22), SMA_100 (241.40) and just below SMA_200 (234.59) — the first daily close under the 200-day since February. 1-Hour: RSI_14 31.4, UO 42.1, price below the hourly SMA_50 (244.59) and SMA_200 (242.41). 30-Minute: RSI_14 34.7, UO 39.8. Weekly: RSI_14 46.7, UO 40.1, price still far above the weekly SMA_200 (178.56). Momentum is falling and not yet diverging — consistent with an unfinished third-of-c rather than a completed correction.
| Wave (degree) | Pivot date | Pivot price | Volume | RSI_14 | UO | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary ③ start / Primary ② low | 2025-04-07 | 161.38 | 109.3 M | 32.04 | 47.32 | Capitulation volume at the wave-2 low |
| Minor 1 of Int. (1) | 2025-04-09 | 192.65 | 116.8 M | 47.73 | 51.45 | Kick-off volume spike |
| Minor 2 of Int. (1) | 2025-04-21 | 165.29 | 48.1 M | 35.07 | 43.70 | Volume contracts on the correction ✓ |
| Minor 3 of Int. (1) | 2025-09-09 | 238.85 | 27.0 M | 62.27 | 61.56 | ⚠ Wave-3 pivot bar is quiet — the volume peak came mid-wave, not at the terminus |
| Minor 4 of Int. (1) | 2025-10-17 | 211.03 | 46.0 M | 38.05 | 47.06 | Retraces 0.378 of Minor 3 ✓ |
| Minor 5 of Int. (1) | 2025-11-03 | 258.60 | 96.0 M | 71.78 | 61.57 | RSI > 70 at the Intermediate (1) top |
| Minor A of Int. (2) | 2025-11-21 | 215.18 | 68.5 M | 40.65 | 35.49 | Sharp A wave on expanding volume ✓ |
| Minor B of Int. (2) | 2026-01-12 | 248.94 | 35.9 M | 67.50 | 60.34 | Low-volume B-wave rally ✓ |
| Minor C of Int. (2) | 2026-02-17 | 196.00 | 69.9 M | 26.68 | 42.52 | Oversold C-wave low ✓ — Intermediate (3) origin |
| Minute i of Minor 1 | 2026-03-05 | 220.47 | 60.9 M | 53.89 | 73.19 | UO surge confirms a new impulse ✓ |
| Minute ii of Minor 1 | 2026-03-27 | 199.14 | 56.0 M | 37.76 | 40.18 | Deep 0.872 retracement, holds above 196.00 ✓ |
| Minute iii of Minor 1 | 2026-04-30 | 273.88 | 101.0 M | 76.55 | 61.40 | Highest volume of the sequence, RSI > 70 ✓✓ — throwover_volume_spike ratio 2.18 |
| Minute iv of Minor 1 | 2026-04-30 | 256.16 | (same bar) | — | — | Intraday earnings reversal; 0.237 retracement of iii ✓ |
| Minute v of Minor 1 | 2026-05-05 | 278.56 | 41.9 M | 80.51 | 51.62 | Volume 0.42 × wave iii ✓; UO bearish divergence (61.4 → 51.6) at the ATH ✓ |
| Minuette (i) of Minute a | 2026-05-19 | 255.19 | 40.3 M | 51.93 | 46.81 | First leg down |
| Minuette (ii) of Minute a | 2026-05-29 | 274.75 | 54.7 M | 59.70 | 62.78 | 0.837 retracement — deep but legal |
| Minuette (iii) of Minute a | 2026-06-12 | 233.59 | 51.2 M | 34.76 | 39.76 | Extended third of the a-wave |
| Minuette (iv) of Minute a | 2026-06-16 | 249.51 | 35.2 M | 43.20 | 45.25 | 0.387 retracement, no overlap with (i) ✓ |
| Minuette (v) / Minute a low | 2026-06-25 | 225.55 | 77.9 M | 33.63 | 31.18 | ⚠ No bullish divergence at the low — decline unfinished |
| Minute b top | 2026-07-16 | 258.08 | 45.3 M | 54.19 | 54.90 | 0.6137 retracement of wave a — textbook zigzag B ✓ |
| Minuette (i) of Minute c | 2026-07-17 | 243.59 | 43.6 M | 51.32 | 54.46 | First leg of wave c |
| Minuette (ii) of Minute c | 2026-07-20 | 252.89 | 32.4 M | 54.04 | 50.22 | 0.642 retracement on contracting volume ✓ |
| Minuette (iii) of Minute c — live | 2026-07-24 | 231.35 | 35.0 M | 38.62 | n/a | Third-of-c acceleration; 23 Jul closed 233.66 on 47.5 M with RSI 38.6 |
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Cycle III (impulse) | Up | Bullish | 196.00 · 161.38 | 278.56 | ✓ |
| Primary | Weekly | Primary ③ → Intermediate (3) | Up | Bullish | 196.00 · base line 213–219 | 258.60 · 278.56 | ✓ |
| Intermediate | Daily | Minor 2 (zigzag), wave c | Down | Corrective within an uptrend | 225.55 · 213.67 · 208.05 | 247.02 · 258.08 | ✗ counter-trend |
| Minor | 1-Hour | Minute c of Minor 2 | Down | Bearish | 231.35 · 225.55 | 242.45 · 252.89 | ✗ |
| Minute | 30-Minute | Minuette (iii) of Minute c | Down | Bearish | 231.35 | 234.31 · 235.15 | ✗ |
| Setup | Entry zone | Target | Stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary — buy the Minor 2 wave-c low | 208.05 – 216.00 (base line × 0.764–0.854 retracement) | 264.70 → 296.24 | Daily close below 205.00 | A five-wave Minuette decline completing inside the zone plus RSI_14/UO bullish divergence on 1-Hour against the 24 Jul low |
| Confirmation — Minor 3 under way | Break and daily close above 258.08 | 278.56 → 296.24 | Below the breakout day’s low | Hourly close above 252.89 first (wave-(ii) high), then above the 258.08 wave-b top |
| Counter-trend — wave-c continuation | Hourly rallies into 240 – 245 that fail | 231.35 → 225.55 → 213.67 | Hourly close above 252.89 | Hourly RSI_14 rolling over below 50 while price holds under the 1-hour SMA_50 (244.59) |
The two higher layers (monthly, weekly) are unambiguously bullish and aligned; the three lower layers are aligned against them. That is the textbook signature of a correction inside a larger uptrend, not a trend change — and the conflict is resolved in favour of the higher degree, because every attempt to promote the decline to a completed higher-degree structure fails the mechanical gate on R3. The practical reading: the intraday layers say “not yet”, the weekly layer says “still up”. Wait for the lower-degree evidence (a completed five-wave Minuette decline plus momentum divergence in the 208–216 zone, or a daily close back above 258.08) before treating the correction as finished. The 1-hour count nests correctly inside the daily Minor 2 — no ⚠ cross-timeframe conflict is flagged.
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 2 | 2026-05-05 | — | 278.56 | — |
| Minute a | 2026-05-05 09:30 | 2026-06-25 15:30 | 278.56 | 225.55 |
| Minuette (i) | 2026-05-05 09:30 | 2026-05-19 10:30 | 278.56 | 255.19 |
| Minuette (ii) | 2026-05-19 10:30 | 2026-05-29 15:30 | 255.19 | 274.75 |
| Minuette (iii) | 2026-05-29 15:30 | 2026-06-12 09:30 | 274.75 | 233.59 |
| Minuette (iv) | 2026-06-12 09:30 | 2026-06-16 10:30 | 233.59 | 249.51 |
| Minuette (v) | 2026-06-16 10:30 | 2026-06-25 15:30 | 249.51 | 225.55 |
| Minute b | 2026-06-25 15:30 | 2026-07-16 09:30 | 225.55 | 258.08 |
| Minute c | 2026-07-16 09:30 | — | 258.08 | — |
| Minuette (i) | 2026-07-16 09:30 | 2026-07-17 09:30 | 258.08 | 243.59 |
| Minuette (ii) | 2026-07-17 09:30 | 2026-07-20 12:30 | 243.59 | 252.89 |
| Minuette (iii) | 2026-07-20 12:30 | — | 252.89 | — (231.35 low, 24 Jul 10:30) |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary ③ | 2025-04-07 | — | 161.38 | — |
| Intermediate (1) | 2025-04-07 | 2025-11-03 | 161.38 | 258.60 |
| Minor 1 | 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-09 | 161.38 | 192.65 |
| Minor 2 | 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-21 | 192.65 | 165.29 |
| Minor 3 | 2025-04-21 | 2025-09-09 | 165.29 | 238.85 |
| Minor 4 | 2025-09-09 | 2025-10-17 | 238.85 | 211.03 |
| Minor 5 | 2025-10-17 | 2025-11-03 | 211.03 | 258.60 |
| Intermediate (2) | 2025-11-03 | 2026-02-17 | 258.60 | 196.00 |
| Minor A | 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-21 | 258.60 | 215.18 |
| Minor B | 2025-11-21 | 2026-01-12 | 215.18 | 248.94 |
| Minor C | 2026-01-12 | 2026-02-17 | 248.94 | 196.00 |
| Intermediate (3) | 2026-02-17 | — | 196.00 | — |
| Minor 1 | 2026-02-17 | 2026-05-05 | 196.00 | 278.56 |
| Minute i | 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-05 | 196.00 | 220.47 |
| Minute ii | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-27 | 220.47 | 199.14 |
| Minute iii | 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-30 | 199.14 | 273.88 |
| Minute iv | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 | 273.88 | 256.16 |
| Minute v | 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-05 | 256.16 | 278.56 |
| Minor 2 | 2026-05-05 | — | 278.56 | — |
| Minute a | 2026-05-05 | 2026-06-25 | 278.56 | 225.55 |
| Minute b | 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-16 | 225.55 | 258.08 |
| Minute c | 2026-07-16 | — | 258.08 | — |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle III | 2023-01-06 | — | 81.43 | — |
| Primary ① | 2023-01-06 | 2025-02-04 | 81.43 | 242.52 |
| Primary ② | 2025-02-04 | 2025-04-07 | 242.52 | 161.38 |
| Primary ③ | 2025-04-07 | — | 161.38 | — |
| Intermediate (1) | 2025-04-07 | 2025-11-03 | 161.38 | 258.60 |
| Intermediate (2) | 2025-11-03 | 2026-02-17 | 258.60 | 196.00 |
| Intermediate (3) | 2026-02-17 | — | 196.00 | — |