Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €1,578.20 (26 June 2026). Primary count: ASML is in a powerful Primary-degree bull and just set a fresh all-time high at €1,711.40 (22 Jun 2026); from the €508.40 low (Apr 2025) the move is a five-wave impulse with an extended fifth, price far above a rising SMA-200 (€1,116.81). The shallow pullback reads as a Minor (4)/start of a correction; above €1,080.20 the impulse holds, the steep slope flags exhaustion risk near the highs.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Pullback then (5) extends
Bullish
Intermediate (5) up
€1,711
€1,800
€1,900
€1,080.20
50%
Deeper (4)-style pullback
Bearish
Minor (4) then (5)
€1,562
€1,470
€1,750 (later)
€1,080.20
30%
Blow-off, sharp correction
Bearish
Intermediate correction
€1,470
€1,320
€1,200
€1,711.40
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars show both lows below and highs above the SMA-18 (volatile chop near the highs); price is far above the rising SMA-200 (€1,116.81). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Extended Intermediate (5) of a Primary impulse; the Mar-2026 low (€1,080.20) anchors a steep advance to the €1,711.40 ATH.
Key signal: Price is far above a rising SMA-200 with RSI ~57 - a strong uptrend; UO ~41 is softer, a mild caution into the highs.
Top target: Continuation projects €1,800-€1,900; shallow pullbacks toward €1,562 (23.6%) should hold.
Biggest risk: A steep fifth at the highs is vulnerable; a break of €1,080.20 voids the impulse, €1,470 warns of a deeper (4).
Confidence: Medium-high on trend, lower on remaining upside given the mature, extended wave.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
ASML is in a powerful Primary-degree bull. From the €508.40 low (7 Apr 2025) it rose in a five-wave impulse - Intermediate (4) bottomed at €1,080.20 (Mar 2026) - and wave (5) extended to a fresh all-time high of €1,711.40 (22 Jun 2026). The current direction is up with a shallow pullback in progress; price is far above the rising SMA-200, and the advance is mature but intact above €1,080.20.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary impulse (active)
In progress - five waves up from €508.40
Intermediate (4) low
€1,080.20 (Mar 2026)
Intermediate (5) (current)
Extended - ATH €1,711.40
Momentum
RSI ~57; UO ~41 softer
Next objective
€1,800 -> €1,900
Confidence rationale: Price far above a rising SMA-200, a clean steep impulse into new highs, and a still-rising RSI confirm the bullish wave. Counter-evidence: the advance is extended and UO has not confirmed the latest high as strongly, so exhaustion/blow-off risk is rising - watch for bearish divergence.
Alternate count (30%): the advance is even more extended and recent action is wave 3 of (5), implying still-higher targets before a top; a bullish variation. Invalidation of the bullish impulse: a daily close below €1,080.20.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is an extended Intermediate (5), now in a shallow pullback from €1,711.40. Holding €1,525-€1,562 keeps momentum targets (€1,800-€1,900) in play; a loss of €1,470 warns of a deeper (4).
Item
Reading
Wave (5) leg
€631.20 (€1,080.20 -> €1,711.40)
Support (of the up-leg)
23.6% €1,562 / 38.2% €1,470 / 50% €1,396
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
€1,116.81 (rising)
Momentum targets
€1,800 -> €1,900
Invalidation-down
€1,080.20 (Mar 2026 (4) low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary low
2025-04-07
€508.40
oversold
low
high
Launch of the advance
Intermediate (4) low
2026-03-31
€1,080.20
~45
~45
contracting
Healthy 4th-wave dip
Interim high
2026-02-25
€1,312.80
~65
~62
steady
Earlier swing high
Wave (5)/ATH
2026-06-22
€1,711.40
~60
~50
spike
Extended fifth-wave high; UO lagging
Current bar
2026-06-26
€1,578.20
57.2
41.0
-
Pullback; far above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below €1,080.20 voids the bullish impulse; near term, a loss of €1,470 would warn of a deeper Minor (4).
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary impulse up
Up
Bullish
€1,470 / €1,117
€1,711 (ATH)
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5) extended
Up
Bullish
€1,562 / €1,470
€1,800 / €1,900
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Pullback from ATH
Down
Neutral
€1,525.60
€1,711.40
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
€1,547.40
€1,636.00
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Trend long (with trend)
€1,525-€1,562 hold
€1,711 / €1,800
€1,470
1h close > €1,711.40
Breakout add
close > €1,711.40
€1,800 / €1,900
€1,525
daily close > €1,711.40
Alignment narrative: Weekly and daily trends are strongly bullish; intraday shows a normal pullback from the ATH. Dips are bought while price holds above €1,470 and the SMA-200; the extended slope means a blow-off and sharp correction become more likely as the move matures.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Wave (5) sub-advance - up
2026-05-19 16:00
2026-06-22 15:00
€1,243.20
€1,711.40
Pullback - down
2026-06-22 15:00
2026-06-24 15:00
€1,711.40
€1,525.60
Bounce - up
2026-06-24 15:00
2026-06-25 15:00
€1,525.60
€1,636.00
Pullback (in progress) - down
2026-06-25 15:00
-
€1,636.00
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-22
€508.40
€1,711.40
Intermediate (1) - up
2025-04-07
2025-06-25
€508.40
€708.90
Intermediate (2) - down
2025-06-25
2025-08-06
€708.90
€587.80
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-08-06
2026-02-25
€587.80
€1,312.80
Intermediate (4) - down
2026-02-25
2026-03-31
€1,312.80
€1,080.20
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-03-31
2026-06-22
€1,080.20
€1,711.40
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse (off 2025 low) - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-22
€508.40
€1,711.40
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-08-06
2026-02-25
€587.80
€1,312.80
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-03-31
2026-06-22
€1,080.20
€1,711.40
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.