Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, BABA, US01609W1027, NYSE, USD
Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $94.81 (26 June 2026). Primary count: after a strong recovery to $192.67 (Oct 2025), Alibaba has fallen sharply in a Primary-degree decline to a fresh low of $91.99 (26 Jun), with daily RSI ~16 (extremely oversold) and price far below a falling SMA-200 ($148.22). Bias is bearish while under ~$130; the extreme oversold reading flags a sharp bounce risk.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bear continuation / capitulation
Bearish
Final (C)/wave down
$115 (bounce)
$92
$85
$192.67
45%
Oversold bounce / base
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
$115
$130
$146
$91.99
35%
Deeper to 78-80
Bearish
(C) extended down
$90
$85
$78
$192.67
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is far below the falling SMA-200 ($148.22). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree decline from the $192.67 high (Oct 2025); a fresh low ($91.99) was just set with momentum at an extreme.
Key signal: Daily RSI ~16 is extremely oversold and price is far below a falling SMA-200 ($148.22) - a powerful but stretched downtrend.
Top target: Continuation risks $85; however, the extreme oversold reading favours a sharp counter-trend bounce toward $115-$130 first.
Biggest risk: A daily close back above ~$130 would signal the down-leg is complete and a larger bounce underway.
Confidence: Medium - the downtrend is intact, but capitulation-type RSI lowers conviction on fresh shorts at the lows.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Alibaba recovered strongly through 2025 to a high of $192.67 (2 Oct 2025), then turned sharply lower. After a lower high at $181.10 (Jan 2026), the decline accelerated to a fresh low of $91.99 on 26 Jun 2026 - roughly a 52% drop from the October high. The current direction is down, with daily RSI ~16 (extremely oversold) and price far below the falling SMA-200; the move is capitulation-like.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Recovery high
$192.67 (Oct 2025) - end of the rebound
Primary decline (active)
In progress - down from $192.67
Lower high
$181.10 (Jan 2026), then accelerating decline
Recent low
$91.99 (26 Jun 2026), ~52% drop
Momentum
Daily RSI ~16 - extremely oversold
Confidence rationale: Price far below a falling SMA-200, a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and a fresh low support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: RSI ~16 is an extreme rarely sustained, so a sharp relief rally toward $115-$130 is a real risk and chasing weakness here is dangerous.
Alternate count (35%): the $91.99 low completes the decline (a fifth wave / wave C) and a larger oversold bounce or base begins; a daily close above ~$130 would support this. Invalidation of the deeper-bear case: a daily close above $192.67.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is the final stretch of the decline into $91.99. With RSI extremely oversold, a bounce toward $115-$130 is likely; only a sustained break below $90 keeps the immediate down-leg extending toward $85/$78.
Item
Reading
Decline from the high
$100.68 ($192.67 -> $91.99), ~52%
Bounce band (retr of decline)
23.6% $168.91 / 38.2% $154.21 / 61.8% $130.45
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$148.22 (falling)
Continuation target if $90 breaks
$85 then $78-$80
Invalidation-up
$192.67 (Oct 2025 high)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Recovery high
2025-10-02
$192.67
overbought
high
-
Top of the 2025 rebound
Lower high
2026-01-22
$181.10
~60
~58
steady
Failed retest; trend turned down
Interim low
2026-04-07
$117.93
oversold
low
elevated
Mid-decline low
Fresh low
2026-06-26
$91.99
~16
~33
elevated
Capitulation-type low
Current bar
2026-06-26
$94.81
16.5
32.9
-
Extremely oversold; far below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above ~$130 signals the down-leg is complete; a close above $192.67 fully voids the bearish count. A break below $90 extends the decline.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary down
Down
Bearish
$92 / $85
$130 / $148
✓
Primary
Daily
Final (C)/wave down
Down
Bearish
$91.99
$115 / $130
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$91.99
$113.82
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$91.99
$94.83
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$115-$130 rejection
$92 / $85
$131
1h reversal + daily close < $91.99
Oversold bounce long (counter-trend)
reclaim $100
$115 / $130
$90
daily close > $100, then > $118
Alignment narrative: All timeframes are bearish, but momentum is at a capitulation extreme. The trend stays down while price is below $130 and the SMA-200; the immediate risk is a sharp oversold bounce, so new shorts are best taken into strength rather than at the lows.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Down-leg - down
2026-05-13 15:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$146.87
$91.99
Bounce - up
2026-06-11 12:30
2026-06-15 09:30
$109.66
$113.82
Down-leg - down
2026-06-15 09:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$113.82
$91.99
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:30
-
$91.99
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Recovery - up
2025-04-09
2025-10-02
$95.73
$192.67
Primary decline - down (in progress)
2025-10-02
-
$192.67
-
Lower high
2025-10-02
2026-01-22
$192.67
$181.10
Decline - down
2026-01-22
2026-04-07
$181.10
$117.93
Final decline - down (in progress)
2026-05-13
-
$146.87
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Recovery (off 2024 lows) - up
2024-01-22
2025-10-02
$66.63
$192.67
Primary decline - down (in progress)
2025-10-02
-
$192.67
-
Decline to fresh low - down
2026-01-22
2026-06-26
$181.10
$91.99
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.