Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, BMW.XETRA, DE0005190003, XETRA, EUR
Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €59.06 (26 June 2026). Primary count: BMW is in a Primary-degree downtrend and just printed a fresh multi-year low at €58.38 (26 Jun); the decline from the €97.92 high (Dec 2025) is a strong impulsive/corrective wave with daily RSI ~21 (deeply oversold) and price far below a falling SMA-200 (€82.73). Bias is bearish while under ~€73; the oversold reading warns of a sharp bounce risk.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bear continuation / capitulation low near
Bearish
Final (C)/5 down
€68 (bounce)
€58
€55
€97.92
45%
Oversold bounce / base
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
€68
€73
€78
€58.38
35%
Sideways base then up
Bearish
Basing range
€66
€62
€58
€97.92
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is far below the falling SMA-200 (€82.73). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree downtrend; a fresh low (€58.38) was just set with momentum at an extreme.
Key signal: Daily RSI ~21 is deeply oversold and price is far below a falling SMA-200 (€82.73) - a strong but stretched downtrend.
Top target: Continuation risks €55; however, the extreme oversold reading favours a sharp counter-trend bounce toward €68-€73 first.
Biggest risk: A daily close back above ~€73 would signal the down-leg is complete and a larger bounce underway.
Confidence: Medium - the downtrend is intact, but capitulation-type RSI lowers conviction on fresh shorts here.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
BMW is in a Primary-degree downtrend. After the €97.92 high (9 Dec 2025) the stock fell persistently, breaking to a fresh multi-year low of €58.38 on 26 Jun 2026. The current direction is down, with daily RSI ~21 (deeply oversold) and price far below the falling SMA-200. The decline is mature and capitulation-like; a counter-trend bounce is increasingly likely even if the larger trend stays down.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary downtrend (active)
In progress - lower highs/lows since 2023-24
Recent swing high
€97.92 (Dec 2025)
Decline (active)
In progress - €97.92 -> €58.38
Momentum
Daily RSI ~21 - deeply oversold
Current position
Fresh low, far below SMA-200
Confidence rationale: Price far below a falling SMA-200, a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and a fresh low support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: RSI ~21 is an extreme that often precedes sharp bounces, so chasing weakness here is risky and a relief rally toward €68-€73 is a real possibility.
Alternate count (35%): the €58.38 low completes the decline (a fifth wave / wave C) and a larger oversold bounce or base begins; a daily close above ~€73 would support this. Invalidation of the deeper-bear case: a daily close above €97.92.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is the final stretch of the decline into €58.38. With RSI deeply oversold, a bounce toward €68-€73 is likely; only a sustained break below €58 keeps the immediate down-leg extending toward €55.
Item
Reading
Decline from the high
€39.54 (€97.92 -> €58.38), ~40%
Bounce band (retr of decline)
23.6% €88.59 / 38.2% €82.82 / 61.8% €73.48
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
€82.73 (falling)
Continuation target if €58 breaks
€55 then lower
Invalidation-up
€97.92 (Dec 2025 high)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Swing high
2025-12-09
€97.92
overbought
high
-
Start of the decline
Interim low
2026-03-23
€73.38
~40
low
elevated
Mid-decline low
Lower high
2026-04-14
€85.16
~50
~50
steady
Failed bounce
Fresh low
2026-06-26
€58.38
~21
~38
elevated
Capitulation-type low
Current bar
2026-06-26
€59.06
21.5
38.1
-
Deeply oversold; far below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above ~€73 signals the down-leg is complete; a close above €97.92 fully voids the bearish count. A break below €58 extends the decline.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary downtrend
Down
Bearish
€58 / €55
€73 / €83
✓
Primary
Daily
Final (C)/5 down
Down
Bearish
€58.38
€68 / €73
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
€58.38
€61.70
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
€58.38
€61.20
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
€68-€73 rejection
€58 / €55
€74
1h reversal + daily close < €58.38
Oversold bounce long (counter-trend)
reclaim €61.7
€68 / €73
€58
daily close > €62, then > €66
Alignment narrative: All timeframes are bearish, but momentum is at a capitulation extreme. The trend stays down while price is below €73 and the SMA-200; the immediate risk is a sharp oversold bounce, so new shorts are best taken into strength rather than at the lows.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Down-leg - down
2026-04-14 11:00
2026-06-18 16:00
€85.16
€58.76
Bounce - up
2026-06-18 16:00
2026-06-24 15:00
€58.76
€61.70
Pullback - down
2026-06-24 15:00
2026-06-26 15:00
€61.70
€58.38
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 15:00
-
€58.38
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary downtrend - down (in progress)
2024-04-10
-
€115.35
-
Swing high
2025-12-09
2025-12-09
€97.92
€97.92
Decline - down
2025-12-09
2026-03-23
€97.92
€73.38
Bounce - up
2026-03-23
2026-04-14
€73.38
€85.16
Final decline - down (in progress)
2026-04-14
-
€85.16
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary downtrend (multi-year) - down
2024-04-10
-
€115.35
-
Swing high
2024-04-10
2025-12-09
€115.35
€97.92
Decline to fresh low - down (in progress)
2025-12-09
-
€97.92
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.