Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $149.06 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Coinbase topped at $444.65 (Jul 2025) and has fallen in a Primary-degree decline to a fresh low of $139.18 (26 Jun 2026), far below a falling SMA-200 ($234.30). Bias is bearish while under ~$222; given Coinbase's high beta, swings are large and a sharp counter-trend bounce can occur at any time.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bear continuation / retest lows
Bearish
(C)/wave down
$170 (bounce)
$139
$130
$222.35
45%
Oversold bounce
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
$180
$203
$222
$139.18
35%
Deeper new low
Bearish
(C) extended down
$139
$130
$115
$222.35
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is far below the falling SMA-200 ($234.30). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree decline from the $444.65 high (Jul 2025); a fresh low ($139.18) was just set.
Key signal: Price is far below a falling SMA-200 ($234.30) with daily RSI ~38 - a downtrend; the high-beta profile means violent two-way swings.
Top target: Bounces toward $170-$203 are sell zones; a break of $139.18 opens $130 and lower.
Biggest risk: A daily close back above ~$222 would negate the immediate bearish case; crypto-linked news can spark sharp rallies.
Confidence: Medium - the trend bias is down, but Coinbase's volatility lowers precision on both targets and timing.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Coinbase topped at $444.65 (18 Jul 2025) and has fallen in a volatile Primary-degree decline. After a lower high at $222.35 (May 2026) it broke to a fresh low of $139.18 on 26 Jun 2026. The current direction is down, with price far below the falling SMA-200; the stock's high beta means the down-leg can extend or reverse sharply on crypto-market swings.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Cycle/Primary top
$444.65 (Jul 2025)
Primary decline (active)
In progress - down from $444.65
Lower high
$222.35 (May 2026)
Recent low
$139.18 (26 Jun 2026)
Current position
Fresh low, far below SMA-200
Confidence rationale: Price far below a falling SMA-200, lower highs and lower lows, and weak momentum support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: Coinbase's high beta to crypto means sharp counter-trend bounces are common, so chasing weakness is risky and a relief rally toward $170-$203 is plausible.
Alternate count (35%): the $139.18 low completes the decline and a larger oversold bounce or base begins, supported by a daily close above ~$222. Invalidation of the deeper-bear case: a daily close above $222.35.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is the decline into $139.18. With the high-beta profile, risk is two-sided: a sharp bounce toward $170-$203 or a break to $130 and lower. A reclaim of $180 would be the first sign of a base.
Item
Reading
Decline from the high
$305.47 ($444.65 -> $139.18), ~69%
Bounce band (retr of last swing)
38.2% $190.58 / 50% $180.76 / 61.8% $170.95
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$234.30 (falling)
Continuation target if $139 breaks
$130 then $115
Invalidation-up
$222.35 (May 2026 lower high)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Cycle/Primary top
2025-07-18
$444.65
overbought
high
-
Top of the advance
Interim low
2026-02-12
$139.36
oversold
low
elevated
Prior major low
Lower high
2026-05-14
$222.35
~55
~55
steady
Failed retest
Fresh low
2026-06-26
$139.18
~38
~33
elevated
Marginal new low
Current bar
2026-06-26
$149.06
38.3
33.0
-
Weak; far below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above ~$222 negates the immediate bearish count; a decisive break below $139.18 confirms the next leg down.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary down
Down
Bearish
$139 / $115
$222 / $234
✓
Primary
Daily
(C)/wave down
Down
Bearish
$139.18
$170 / $203
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$139.18
$174.44
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$139.18
$149.36
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$170-$203 rejection
$139 / $130
$223
1h reversal + daily close < $139.18
Oversold bounce long (counter-trend, risky)
reclaim $150
$170 / $190
$139
daily close > $150, then > $176
Alignment narrative: All timeframes are bearish, but Coinbase's high beta means sharp two-way swings. The trend stays down while price is below $222 and the SMA-200; new shorts are best taken into strength given the bounce risk.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Lower high
2026-05-14 12:30
2026-05-14 12:30
$222.35
$222.35
Down-leg - down
2026-05-14 12:30
2026-06-05 14:30
$222.35
$147.88
Bounce - up
2026-06-05 14:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$147.88
$176.48
Down-leg - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$176.48
$139.18
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:30
-
$139.18
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle/Primary bull - up
2025-04-07
2025-07-18
$142.58
$444.65
Primary decline - down (in progress)
2025-07-18
-
$444.65
-
Lower high
2026-02-12
2026-05-14
$139.36
$222.35
Decline - down
2026-05-14
2026-06-26
$222.35
$139.18
Bounce - up (in progress)
2026-06-26
-
$139.18
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle/Primary bull (to 2025 high) - up
2025-04-07
2025-07-18
$142.58
$444.65
Primary decline - down (in progress)
2025-07-18
-
$444.65
-
Decline to fresh low - down
2026-05-14
2026-06-26
$222.35
$139.18
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.