Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $96.58 (26 June 2026). Primary count: CoreWeave (IPO Mar 2025) has been extraordinarily volatile - a spike to $187.00 (Jun 2025), a collapse to $63.80 (Dec 2025), and a choppy, overlapping range since between ~$64 and ~$153. The action reads as a large corrective structure; price hovers around a flat SMA-200 ($100.66). Bias is neutral-to-bearish while under ~$138; the short, whippy history makes any single count low-confidence.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Choppy range / lower
Bearish
Corrective down-leg
$115 (bounce)
$91
$80
$138.25
45%
Bounce / recover
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
$115
$132
$138
$91.02
35%
Breakdown to 64
Bearish
Retest of the low
$85
$70
$64
$138.25
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is just below a flat SMA-200 ($100.66). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Large corrective/range structure since the IPO; overlapping swings between ~$64 and ~$153, currently near the lower-middle.
Key signal: Price is around a flat SMA-200 ($100.66) with daily RSI ~42; the post-IPO action is choppy and overlapping, not cleanly impulsive.
Top target: Bounces toward $115-$132 are resistance; a break of $91 opens $80, then the $64 low.
Biggest risk: Extreme volatility - sharp swings in either direction are common; a daily close above $138.25 would flip the bias up.
Confidence: Low-to-medium - the brief, whippy listing history and overlapping structure make precise wave labels unreliable.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
CoreWeave listed in March 2025 and has been extraordinarily volatile. After spiking to $187.00 (20 Jun 2025), it collapsed to $63.80 (17 Dec 2025), then chopped higher to $138.25 (6 May 2026) and back toward $91-$96. The overlapping swings read as a large corrective structure rather than a clean impulse; price hovers around a flat SMA-200. The current direction is down/sideways within that range.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Post-IPO spike high
$187.00 (Jun 2025)
Major low
$63.80 (Dec 2025)
Range (active)
~$64 - $153, overlapping/corrective
Recent swing
$138.25 (May) -> ~$91-$96 (Jun)
Current position
Lower-middle of range, around SMA-200
Confidence rationale: The overlapping, whippy structure and a flat SMA-200 are characteristic of a large correction/base rather than a trend. Counter-evidence: the history is very short and the swings are violent, so any wave count is tentative and a sharp move either way can invalidate it quickly.
Alternate count (35%): the $63.80 low completed the post-IPO correction and the structure is basing for a new advance; a daily close above $138.25 would support this. Invalidation of the immediate bearish/range bias: a daily close above $138.25.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active phase is a corrective/range down-leg within the post-IPO structure. While price holds below $115-$132, the bias leans toward $91/$80; a reclaim of $132-$138 would argue the range is resolving up.
Item
Reading
Post-IPO range
~$64 - $187 (spike), recently ~$64 - $153
Recent swing
$138.25 (May) -> $91.02 (Jun)
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$100.66 (flat)
Downside levels
$91 -> $80 -> $64
Invalidation-up
$138.25 (May 2026 swing high)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Post-IPO spike high
2025-06-20
$187.00
overbought
high
spike
Euphoric IPO spike
Major low
2025-12-17
$63.80
oversold
low
elevated
Post-IPO washout low
Swing high
2026-05-06
$138.25
~58
~55
steady
Range high
Recent low
2026-06-11
$91.02
~42
~40
steady
Lower-middle of range
Current bar
2026-06-26
$96.58
41.6
39.1
-
Choppy; around SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close above $138.25 flips the bias up toward the range high; a decisive break below $91 then $80 opens a retest of the $63.80 low.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Post-IPO correction/range
Sideways
Neutral
$80 / $64
$138 / $153
✓
Primary
Daily
Corrective down-leg
Down
Neutral-bear
$91 / $80
$115 / $132
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Range pullback
Down
Bearish
$91.02
$122.00
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$93.50
$105.38
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Range short (with bias)
$115-$132 rejection
$91 / $80
$139
1h reversal + daily close < $91.02
Range long (counter, risky)
$80-$91 hold
$115 / $132
$80
daily close > $115, then > $132
Alignment narrative: All timeframes reflect a volatile, overlapping correction rather than a trend. The bias leans down/sideways while price is below $132-$138; given the extreme volatility, position sizing should be conservative and a daily close above $138.25 would change the bias.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Swing high
2026-05-06 15:30
2026-05-06 15:30
$138.25
$138.25
Down-leg - down
2026-06-02 09:30
2026-06-11 09:30
$132.13
$91.02
Bounce - up
2026-06-11 09:30
2026-06-17 09:30
$91.02
$122.00
Down-leg - down
2026-06-17 09:30
2026-06-26 10:30
$122.00
$93.50
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 10:30
-
$93.50
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Post-IPO spike - up
2025-03-28
2025-06-20
$33.51
$187.00
Correction - down
2025-06-20
2025-12-17
$187.00
$63.80
Range rally - up
2025-12-17
2026-05-06
$63.80
$138.25
Range pullback - down (in progress)
2026-05-06
-
$138.25
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Post-IPO range (since Mar 2025) - sideways (in progress)
2025-03-28
-
$33.51
-
Spike high
2025-03-28
2025-06-20
$33.51
$187.00
Major low
2025-06-20
2025-12-17
$187.00
$63.80
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.