Deutsche Börse AG, DB1.XETRA, DE0005810055, XETRA, EUR
Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €238.30 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Deutsche Börse topped at the €294.30 all-time high (May 2025) and is in a Primary-degree correction - wave (A) to €201.90, a deep wave (B) bounce to €269.60 (Apr 2026), and wave (C) now developing. Price sits right at the SMA-200 (€231.76) and the 38.2% retracement of the bull; above €294.30 the correction is void, below €200 it deepens.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave (C) lower toward 200
Bearish
(C) Intermediate down
€250 (bounce)
€215
€205
€294.30
50%
Bull - correction done, up
Bullish
Impulse up
€260
€270
€295
€200.10
35%
Deeper (C) to 196
Bearish
(C) extended down
€225
€205
€196
€294.30
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is hovering around the SMA-200 (€231.76). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree correction off the €294.30 all-time high; an A-B-C with wave (C) developing after the (B) high at €269.60.
Key signal: Price is at the SMA-200 (€231.76) and the 38.2% retracement of the whole bull (€233.75), with daily RSI ~35 - a weak, corrective tape.
Top target: Bounces toward €250 are sell zones; wave (C) targets the €205-€215 area, with €200.10 the key floor.
Biggest risk: The deep (B) at €269.60 means a daily close back above it - and ultimately €294.30 - would flip the structure bullish.
Confidence: Medium - the corrective read is clear, but the 73% B-wave retracement leaves a credible bullish alternate.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Deutsche Börse completed a Primary-degree bull at the all-time high of €294.30 (5 May 2025) and has since been correcting. The decline to €201.90 (18 Nov 2025) was wave (A), the rebound to €269.60 (28 Apr 2026) a deep (73%) wave (B), and price is now in wave (C) down, trading at €238.30 around the SMA-200. The current direction is down at the corrective degree; the alternate is that the correction is already complete.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull
Complete (€135.80 -> €294.30), into the May-2025 ATH
Primary correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from €294.30
Intermediate (A)
Complete (€294.30 -> €201.90)
Intermediate (B)
Complete (€201.90 -> €269.60), deep 73% bounce
Intermediate (C) (current)
In progress - down, target €205-€215
Confidence rationale: The A-B-C shape off the ATH, price below the short SMA averages, and a weak RSI support the corrective primary. Counter-evidence: wave (B) retraced a deep 73% of (A) and price is holding the SMA-200, so the correction could be a flat that is nearly done - hence a meaningful bullish alternate.
Alternate count (35%): the €201.90 low and the rally to €269.60 completed the correction (or it was a fourth wave), and a new advance to new highs is starting; a daily close above €269.60 then €294.30 confirms this. Invalidation of the corrective primary: daily close above €294.30.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (C) down. While price holds below €250 and the structure stays under €269.60, the path of least resistance is toward €215/€205; a reclaim of €250-€260 would warn the correction is ending.
Item
Reading
Wave (A) length
€92.40 (€294.30 -> €201.90)
Wave (B) retrace of (A)
73.3% (€201.90 -> €269.60) - deep, flat-like
38.2% retrace of the bull
€233.75 (near current price / SMA-200)
(C)=(A) projection
~€177 from €269.60 (extreme); nearer-term €205-€215
Invalidation-up
€294.30 (ATH); a close > €269.60 warns first)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary top (ATH)
2025-05-05
€294.30
overbought
high
-
All-time high
Intermediate (A) low
2025-11-18
€201.90
oversold
low
elevated
First correction low
Intermediate (B) high
2026-04-28
€269.60
~60
~58
steady
Deep 73% counter-trend bounce
Recent low
2026-06-26
€235.70
~35
~56
steady
Wave (C) pressing lower
Current bar
2026-06-26
€238.30
35.2
55.7
-
Weak; at the SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above €294.30 voids the corrective count; a close above €269.60 warns first. A break below €200.10 confirms wave (C) lower.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary (C) down
Down
Bearish (corrective)
€202 / €196
€294
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (C) down
Down
Bearish
€231 / €215
€250 / €270
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
€235.70
€248.20
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
€235.70
€248.40
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
€248-€260 rejection
€215 / €205
€270
1h reversal + daily close < €235.70
Reversal long (counter-trend)
reclaim €250
€260 / €270
€230
daily close > €260, then > €269.60
Alignment narrative: Higher timeframes are corrective/down while intraday shows only bounces against the trend. The bias stays lower while price is below €250-€270 and near/under the SMA-200; a daily close above €269.60 would shift the structure toward the bullish alternate.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (B) high
2026-04-28 09:00
2026-04-28 09:00
€269.60
€269.60
Down-leg - down
2026-04-28 09:00
2026-05-08 16:00
€269.60
€242.60
Bounce - up
2026-05-08 16:00
2026-05-19 12:00
€242.60
€260.80
Down-leg - down
2026-05-19 12:00
2026-06-26 09:00
€260.80
€235.70
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:00
-
€235.70
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2022-09-23
2025-05-05
€135.80
€294.30
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-05-05
-
€294.30
-
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-05-05
2025-11-18
€294.30
€201.90
Intermediate (B) - up
2025-11-18
2026-04-28
€201.90
€269.60
Intermediate (C) - down (in progress)
2026-04-28
-
€269.60
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (multi-year) - up
2022-09-23
2025-05-05
€135.80
€294.30
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-05-05
2025-11-18
€294.30
€201.90
Intermediate (B) - up
2025-11-18
2026-04-28
€201.90
€269.60
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-05-05
-
€294.30
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.