Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €140.40 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Euronext is in a Primary-degree bull that topped (for now) at €153.50 (Jul 2025); since the €110.00 low (Feb 2026) price has rallied and is consolidating in the €134-€151 range - read as an Intermediate fourth-wave/sideways correction within an ongoing advance. Above €110 the bias stays constructive.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Range resolves up to new highs
Bullish
Intermediate (5) up
€145
€153.50
€165
€110.00
45%
Corrective dip to 130 first
Bearish
(4) deeper
€135
€130
€145 (later)
€153.50
35%
Deeper to 121
Bearish
(4) extended
€134
€127
€121
€153.50
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18 over the medium term; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it (the recent dip within the range); price remains above the rising SMA-200 (€132.58). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Intermediate fourth-wave/sideways correction inside a Primary bull; price ranges between €134 and €151 above a rising SMA-200.
Key signal: The €110.00 (Feb 2026) low launched a recovery; the structure since is overlapping/corrective - a consolidation, not a new downtrend.
Top target: A break above €151.50 opens the €153.50 high and a measured €165 extension.
Biggest risk: A loss of €134 then €130 signals a deeper fourth wave toward €121.
Confidence: Medium - the range is choppy, but the higher-timeframe uptrend and SMA-200 support favour an eventual upside resolution.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Euronext is in a Primary-degree bull. After the €153.50 high (21 Jul 2025) it corrected to €110.00 on 4 Feb 2026, then rallied back toward the highs and has spent recent months consolidating in a €134-€151 range. This overlapping action reads as an Intermediate fourth-wave (or B-wave of a flat) within an ongoing advance; price holds above the rising SMA-200 (€132.58).
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull (active)
In progress - uptrend off the 2022/2024 lows
Intermediate (3) high
€153.50 (Jul 2025)
Intermediate (4) (active)
In progress - sideways €110-€151 since
Current position
Mid-range €140, above SMA-200
Intermediate (5) (expected)
Up toward / above €153.50
Confidence rationale: The overlapping, range-bound action above a rising SMA-200 is characteristic of a fourth-wave consolidation rather than a new bear; the higher-timeframe trend is up. Counter-evidence: the range is wide and choppy, so a deeper fourth-wave dip toward €130/€121 cannot be ruled out before new highs.
Alternate count (35%): the move is a larger flat/triangle and a final dip toward €130 (or €121) completes Intermediate (4) before wave (5); the destination is still up. Invalidation of the immediate bullish resolution: a daily close below €110.00 ends the advance.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (4), a sideways consolidation. While price holds the €134/€130 shelf, the next directional move favours an upside break of €151.50 toward the €153.50 high.
Item
Reading
Range
€134 - €151 (since the €110.00 low)
Recovery leg
€110.00 -> €151.50 (4 Feb -> 22 May 2026)
Retrace support
38.2% €135.65 / 50% €130.75
Breakout / targets
€151.50 -> €153.50 -> €165
Invalidation-down
€110.00 (4 Feb 2026 low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Intermediate (3) high
2025-07-21
€153.50
overbought
high
-
Cycle/Primary swing high
Intermediate (4) low
2026-02-04
€110.00
oversold
low
elevated
Correction low; recovery launch
Range high
2026-05-22
€151.50
~60
~58
steady
Upper edge of the range
Range low (recent)
2026-06-03
€134.70
~45
~47
steady
Lower edge held
Current bar
2026-06-26
€140.40
41.8
47.8
-
Mid-range; above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below €110.00 voids the bullish advance; a loss of €130 first signals a deeper Intermediate (4).
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary bull
Up
Bullish
€110 / €130
€153.50
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (4) sideways
Sideways
Neutral
€134 / €130
€151.50
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Range pullback
Down
Neutral
€137.80
€149.60
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro down-leg
Down
Neutral
€137.80
€143.60
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Range long
€134-€137 hold
€149 / €151
€130
1h close > €143.60, then > €149.60
Breakout add
close > €151.50
€153.50 / €165
€140
daily close > €151.50
Alignment narrative: The weekly trend is up; daily and intraday are range-bound/neutral. The consolidation favours an eventual upside break while €130/€134 holds; only a daily close below €110.00 would change the bullish bias.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Recovery (into range) - up
2026-02-04 09:00
2026-05-22 09:00
€110.00
€151.50
Range pullback - down
2026-05-22 09:00
2026-06-03 17:00
€151.50
€134.70
Bounce - up
2026-06-03 17:00
2026-06-16 14:00
€134.70
€149.60
Pullback - down
2026-06-16 14:00
2026-06-26 09:00
€149.60
€137.80
Range chop (in progress)
2026-06-26 09:00
-
€137.80
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2024-11-08
2025-07-21
€96.20
€153.50
Intermediate (3) high
2025-05-09
2025-07-21
€151.00
€153.50
Intermediate (4) - sideways (in progress)
2025-07-21
-
€153.50
-
(4) low
2025-07-21
2026-02-04
€153.50
€110.00
Recovery within (4) - up
2026-02-04
2026-05-22
€110.00
€151.50
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (off 2022/2024 lows) - up
2024-11-08
2025-07-21
€96.20
€153.50
Intermediate (4) - sideways (in progress)
2025-07-21
-
€153.50
-
(4) low
2025-07-21
2026-02-04
€153.50
€110.00
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.