Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: 1.1390 (26 June 2026). Primary count: EUR/USD rallied through 2025 into a 1.2024 high (Jan 2026) and is now correcting that advance; the decline reads as an A-B-C / wave (c) down toward 1.13, with daily RSI ~31 (oversold) and price below a falling SMA-200 (1.1665). Bias is corrective/lower while under ~1.16; a recovery is favoured only on a reclaim of 1.16+.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bear (c) lower toward 1.12
Bearish
(c) Minor down
1.1500 (bounce)
1.1325
1.1250
1.2024
50%
Bull - correction done, up
Bullish
Impulse up
1.1600
1.1665
1.1850
1.1325
35%
Deeper to 1.10
Bearish
(c) extended
1.1300
1.1200
1.1000
1.2024
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is below the falling SMA-200 (1.1665). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Corrective decline from the Jan-2026 high (1.2024) within the larger 2025 advance; an A-B-C/wave (c) is in progress.
Key signal: Price is below a falling SMA-200 (1.1665) with daily RSI ~31 (oversold) - a clear down-leg, though stretched.
Top target: Bounces toward 1.15 are sell zones; the (c) leg targets 1.1325 then 1.1250.
Biggest risk: Oversold RSI plus a reclaim of 1.16 would flag the correction is ending and a recovery toward 1.1850 underway.
Confidence: Medium - the downtrend is intact below the SMA-200, but oversold momentum raises the odds of a sharp counter-trend bounce.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
EUR/USD advanced strongly through 2025 to a high of 1.2024 on 28 Jan 2026, then turned down. The decline to 1.1416 (Mar 2026) was wave (a), the bounce to 1.1851 (Apr 2026) wave (b), and the slide to 1.1325 (24 Jun 2026) wave (c). The current direction is down, with price below the falling SMA-200 and RSI oversold; the correction is mature but not yet confirmed complete.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Larger advance (2025)
Up into 1.2024 (Jan 2026) - now correcting
Correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from 1.2024
Wave (a)
Complete (1.2024 -> 1.1416)
Wave (b)
Complete (1.1416 -> 1.1851)
Wave (c) (current)
In progress - down, low 1.1325
Confidence rationale: Price below a falling SMA-200, a clean A-B-C from the 1.2024 high, and a lower low in wave (c) support the corrective/bearish read. Counter-evidence: daily RSI ~31 is oversold and wave (c) is approaching common A-B-C completion zones, so a sharp counter-trend bounce is a real risk.
Alternate count (35%): the correction completed near 1.1325 (wave (c) ~ equal to wave (a)) and a new advance toward 1.16-1.1850 is starting; a bullish read that needs a reclaim of 1.16. Invalidation of the immediate bearish case: a daily close back above ~1.16, then 1.1851.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is wave (c) down. While price holds below ~1.15-1.16, the path of least resistance is toward 1.1325/1.1250; a daily close back above 1.16 would argue the correction is over.
Item
Reading
Wave (a) length
-0.0608 (1.2024 -> 1.1416)
Wave (b) retrace
~72% of (a) (1.1416 -> 1.1851)
Wave (c) = (a) projection
~1.1243 from the 1.1851 high
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
1.1665 (falling)
Invalidation-up
reclaim of 1.16 then 1.1851; full void above 1.2024
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Cycle/swing high
2026-01-28
1.2024
overbought
high
-
Top of the 2025 advance
Wave (a) low
2026-03-16
1.1416
oversold
low
elevated
First decline low
Wave (b) high
2026-04-17
1.1851
~55
~55
steady
Counter-trend bounce peak
Wave (c) low
2026-06-24
1.1325
~26
~45
steady
Lower low; oversold RSI
Current bar
2026-06-26
1.1390
31.0
47.2
-
Weak bounce below SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close back above ~1.16 (then 1.1851) signals the correction is ending; a sustained move above 1.2024 fully voids the bearish count.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Correction of 2025 advance
Down
Bearish
1.1325 / 1.1250
1.1665 / 1.2024
✓
Primary
Daily
Wave (c) down
Down
Bearish
1.1325
1.1500 / 1.1665
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
1.1325
1.1450 / 1.1500
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
1.1325
1.1434
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
1.1450-1.1500 rejection
1.1325 / 1.1250
1.1610
1h reversal + daily close < 1.1325
Reversal long (counter-trend)
oversold + reclaim 1.1450
1.1600 / 1.1665
1.1300
daily close > 1.1500, then > 1.1610
Alignment narrative: All timeframes lean bearish/corrective with only intraday bounces against the trend. The bias stays lower while price is below ~1.15-1.16 and the SMA-200; oversold RSI argues for caution on fresh shorts, and a reclaim of 1.16 would flip the near-term bias up.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Wave (b) - up
2026-03-16 00:00
2026-04-17 00:00
1.1416
1.1851
Wave (c) decline - down
2026-04-17 00:00
2026-06-24 13:00
1.1851
1.1325
Bounce - up
2026-06-24 13:00
2026-06-26 13:00
1.1325
1.1434
Pullback (in progress) - down
2026-06-26 13:00
-
1.1434
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Larger advance (2025) - up
2025-01-13
2026-01-28
1.0184
1.2024
Correction - down (in progress)
2026-01-28
-
1.2024
-
Wave (a) - down
2026-01-28
2026-03-16
1.2024
1.1416
Wave (b) - up
2026-03-16
2026-04-17
1.1416
1.1851
Wave (c) - down (in progress)
2026-04-17
-
1.1851
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle advance - up
2025-01-13
2026-01-28
1.0184
1.2024
Correction (A-B-C) - down (in progress)
2026-01-28
-
1.2024
-
Wave (a) - down
2026-01-28
2026-03-16
1.2024
1.1416
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.