Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v5beta3 (v5.0-beta3) · Report generated Thursday, 9 July 2026, 11:20 CEST
Overview
Last close: €8,252.70 (8 July 2026). Primary ⑤ of Cycle III is a contracting ending diagonal from the 2022 low, now in its final Intermediate (5); a marginal new high toward ~8,760 is favoured to complete it before a multi-month Cycle IV correction — the top is confirmed on a break below 7,505.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Diagonal ⑤ completing (primary)
Bullish
Int (5) high → then Cycle IV top
8,642
8,760
8,850
< 7,505.3 (top confirmed)
40%
Top in — Cycle IV down
Bearish
Cycle IV wave Ⓐ/① down
7,854
7,505
7,050
> 8,642.2 (new ATH)
36%
Wave (4) triangle / range
Neutral
Int (4)-e → then (5) up
7,900
8,500
8,642
< 7,505.3
24%
SMA(18) side note (daily; descriptive only): the SMA(18) trend is rising; the lows of the last two bars are not all below SMA(18); the highs of the last two bars are not all above SMA(18) — price closed the 8 July session (8,252.7) just under the 18-day line (~8,402). This note has no bearing on the count or the probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Cycle III of a Supercycle bull is maturing. Primary ⑤ is a contracting ending diagonal from the 2022-09 low (5,628.4); the diagonal's Intermediate (5) is unfolding as a final zigzag from the March-2026 low (7,505.3).
Key signal: strong bearish momentum divergence — the (3) all-time high (RSI 76.1 / UO 68.7, Feb 2026) versus the (5) rally high (RSI 60.7 / UO 53.0, Jul 2026) — the classic ending-diagonal exhaustion tell.
Top target: a marginal new high near 8,760 (1–3 diagonal line ~8,720; throw-over to ~8,850) would complete Primary ⑤ and Cycle III.
Biggest risk: the diagonal truncates (the 8,561 July high stands as a lower high) and a multi-month Cycle IV correction is already beginning — favoured on a daily close below 7,505.3.
Confidence: moderate. Gate passes all applicable rules (valid=true); guideline score 0.71, calibrated confidence 0.69. Primary and the bearish top-in alternate are close (40% vs 36%), reflecting genuine terminal-diagonal ambiguity.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
The active structure is Primary ⑤ (contracting ending diagonal), Intermediate wave (5), Minor c, Minute (ii) — an up-trend in its terminal phase. Today's decline (8 July, close 8,252.7) is read as a Minute (ii)/(iv) pullback inside Minor c, with h1 RSI oversold (~25).
Degree
Current wave
Direction
Status
Since
Supercycle
(V)
Up
in progress
1990-09-26
Cycle
III
Up
in progress
2009-03-09
Primary
⑤ (ending diagonal)
Up
in progress
2022-09-29
Intermediate
(5)
Up
in progress
2026-03-23
Minor
c
Up
in progress
2026-05-18
Minute
(ii)
Down
in progress
2026-07-06
Confidence rationale. The gate is clean: R1–R3 hold for the Cycle III impulse (Primary ② low 3,632.1 > ① start 2,465.5; Primary ④ low 5,628.4 > ① top 5,283.7), and Primary ⑤ is a valid contracting ending diagonal (W4>end-W2: 7,505.3 > 6,763.8; the 1–4 overlap is permitted in a diagonal). Guideline score 0.71, blended/calibrated confidence 0.69, no caps applied (the five diagonal legs are decomposed and verified; the mandatory top-in reframe is carried as an alternate). No sub-Minor near-miss caveats.
Alternate count (36%). The diagonal's Intermediate (5) has already truncated at 8,561.4 (a lower high) and Cycle III is complete; the Feb–Jul overlapping range is a distribution top, and a Cycle IV A-B-C correction is beginning — toward 7,500, then 7,100/6,800. Invalidated above 8,642.2 (a new ATH re-asserts the bullish diagonal-completion path).
5 · Current Wave Analysis
Item
Reading
Active wave
Primary ⑤ ending diagonal → Intermediate (5) → Minor c → Minute (ii)
Direction / status
Up (terminal); Minute (ii) pullback in progress
Wave (5) start
2026-03-23 @ 7,505.3
Sub-wave a / b
a: 7,505.3→8,455.7 (Apr 17); b: 8,455.7→7,854.3 (May 18, 63.3% of a)
Sub-wave c (live)
7,854.3→8,561.4 (Jul 6) then pulling back to 8,252.7 (Jul 8)
Upside targets
T1 8,642 (prior ATH) · T2 8,760 (c = 1.0×a; 1–3 line ~8,720) · T3 8,850 (throw-over)
Moderate (0.69) — divergence argues the move is terminal either way
Invalidation
< 7,505.3 confirms the top; < 6,763.8 voids the diagonal entirely
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Volume is not published for the CAC 40 index series (0 in source), so wave-strength confirmation relies on RSI_14 and UO.
Pivot (wave)
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Read
Int (1) high
2024-05-10
8,259.2
63.0
54.4
Healthy leg-up
Int (2) low
2025-04-07
6,763.8
18.6
30.7
Deep oversold; correction low
Int (3) / ATH
2026-02-26
8,642.2
76.1
68.7
Overbought peak of the diagonal
Int (4) low
2026-03-23
7,505.3
31.9
39.5
Oversold; sharp zigzag base
Minor a high
2026-04-17
8,455.7
65.6
62.2
Strong (5)-a thrust
Minor b low
2026-05-18
7,854.3
45.1
50.2
Shallow-mid retrace
Minor c high
2026-07-06
8,561.4
60.7
53.0
Bearish divergence vs ATH
Now
2026-07-08
8,252.7
44.6
38.5
Minute (ii) pullback
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Aligned
Macro
Weekly
Cycle III / Primary ⑤ diag.
Up
Bullish (terminal)
7,505
8,642
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5)
Up
Bullish (late)
7,854
8,642
✓
Swing
1-Hour
Minor c / Minute (ii)
Down
Pullback
8,105
8,561
⚠
Micro
30-Minute
Minuette down
Down
Corrective
8,235
8,560
⚠
Higher timeframes agree on a maturing up-trend; the intraday layers show a counter-trend pullback (Minute (ii)/(iv) inside Minor c), so the ⚠ flags are an expected pullback, not a conflict. The resolution: hold above 7,854 keeps the final diagonal push alive; a daily close below 7,505.3 flips the read to the Cycle IV top-in alternate.
Precision Layer Signals
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Long — final ⑤ thrust
8,100–8,250 (Minute ii/iv)
8,642 → 8,760
< 7,854
h1 RSI turn up from oversold; reclaim 8,400
Short — top-in break
on break < 7,505
7,100 → 6,800
> 8,642
daily close < 7,505.3; UO < 40 falling
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (3)
2025-04-07
2026-02-26
6,763.8
8,642.2
Intermediate (4)
2026-02-26
2026-03-23
8,642.2
7,505.3
Intermediate (5)
2026-03-23
—
7,505.3
—
Minor a
2026-03-23
2026-04-17
7,505.3
8,455.7
Minor b
2026-04-17
2026-05-18
8,455.7
7,854.3
Minor c
2026-05-18
—
7,854.3
—
Minute i
2026-05-18
2026-07-06
7,854.3
8,561.4
Minute ii
2026-07-06
—
8,561.4
—
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary ①
2009-03-09
2015-04-27
2,465.5
5,283.7
Primary ②
2015-04-27
2020-03-16
5,283.7
3,632.1
Primary ③
2020-03-16
2022-01-05
3,632.1
7,384.9
Primary ④
2022-01-05
2022-09-29
7,384.9
5,628.4
Primary ⑤ (ending diagonal)
2022-09-29
—
5,628.4
—
Intermediate (1)
2022-09-29
2024-05-10
5,628.4
8,259.2
Intermediate (2)
2024-05-10
2025-04-07
8,259.2
6,763.8
Intermediate (3)
2025-04-07
2026-02-26
6,763.8
8,642.2
Intermediate (4)
2026-02-26
2026-03-23
8,642.2
7,505.3
Intermediate (5)
2026-03-23
—
7,505.3
—
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Supercycle (V)
1990-09-26
—
1,472.0
—
Cycle I
1990-09-26
2000-09-04
1,472.0
6,944.8
Cycle II
2000-09-04
2009-03-09
6,944.8
2,465.5
Cycle III
2009-03-09
—
2,465.5
—
Primary ①
2009-03-09
2015-04-27
2,465.5
5,283.7
Primary ②
2015-04-27
2020-03-16
5,283.7
3,632.1
Primary ③
2020-03-16
2022-01-05
3,632.1
7,384.9
Primary ④
2022-01-05
2022-09-29
7,384.9
5,628.4
Primary ⑤
2022-09-29
—
5,628.4
—
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.