DAX, GDAXI, DE0008469008, XETRA, EUR

Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v5beta3 (v5.0-beta3) · Report generated Thursday, 9 July 2026, 14:20 EEST

Overview

Last close: €24,897.45 (8 July 2026). Primary count: Cycle V (from the Sept-2022 low) is advancing in Primary ④ — its first Intermediate (1) topped at the 25,900 all-time high and a shallow Intermediate (2) pullback is underway; bias stays bullish above 21,864 with upside toward the 26,500–27,800 zone.

2 · Forecasts

Scenario	Direction	Next wave & degree	T1	T2	T3	Invalidation	Prob.
Bullish — Primary ④ advancing (Int (2) shallow, then up)	Up	Intermediate (3) of Primary ④	26,000	26,530	27,760	< 21,864	55%
Bearish — top in at 25,900 (Primary ④ / Cycle V complete)	Down	Primary Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ correction	23,400	22,300	20,374	> 25,900	27%
Deeper Intermediate (2) first, then bull resumes	Down→Up	Deep (2) to 0.5–0.618, then (3) up	23,500	25,000	26,000	< 21,864	18%

SMA(18) side note (daily): the general trend per SMA(18) is rising; the lows of the last two daily bars are not both below SMA(18); the highs of the last two daily bars are both above SMA(18). Descriptive only — it does not affect the wave count or the scenario probabilities.

3 · Executive Summary

Wave position: Cycle wave V (from the 28 Sep 2022 low, 11,862.84) is a clean five-Primary impulse now in Primary ④; within it, Intermediate (1) of ④ topped at the 25,900.10 all-time high (6 Jul 2026) and a shallow Intermediate (2) pullback is in progress.
Key signal: Primary ② is the extended third (10,878 pts, longest leg, top RSI 79.5). The current retrace is only ~26% of the prior leg (fourth-wave-like) — consistent with an ongoing impulse, not a completed top.
Top target: Primary ④ equality with Primary ① projects 26,530 (T2); the inverse-W4 / extended-fifth stretch is 27,760 (T3).
Biggest risk: the overlapping, choppy 2026 advance could instead be a completed ending diagonal — a daily break below 21,864 (Primary ⑥ low) would void the bullish Cycle-V-advancing count and hand it to the bear alternate.
Confidence: Medium-high — guideline score 0.88, blended confidence 0.80; all impulse rules pass the gate at Primary/Cycle degree with verified sub-wave decomposition and no confidence caps.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

The market is in Primary wave ④ of Cycle wave V (up), with the active sub-wave being Intermediate (2) (down, corrective) of Primary ④. Intermediate (2) began 6 Jul 2026 at 25,900.10; the last close is 24,897.45 (8 Jul 2026), a 26% retrace of Intermediate (1).

Degree	Wave & status
Supercycle	(V) up, in progress (anchor / macro context from the 2009 low)
Cycle	V up, in progress — five-Primary impulse from Sept 2022
Primary	④ up, in progress (extended third ② complete at 25,508)
Intermediate	(2) down, in progress — the live counter-trend wave
Minor	a of (2) down, in progress (hourly RSI 25.8, oversold)

Confidence rationale. The primary count passes the absolute gate: R1 (Primary ② low 14,630 > ① start 11,863), R2 (Primary ② +10,878 is the longest leg), R3 (Primary ⑥ low 21,864 > ① top 16,529) all hold, and every Intermediate+ impulse was decomposed and pivot-verified (subdivision_verified). Weighted guideline_score = 0.88, blended confidence = 0.80, no caps applied. No near-miss caveats (all counting is at Primary/Cycle degree, above the sub-Minor regime).

Alternate count (27%). The choppy 2026 advance completed Primary ④ and Cycle V as an ending diagonal at the 25,900 ATH; a Primary-degree A-B-C correction toward 22,300 / 20,374 follows. Invalidated above 25,900.10 (and strongly weakened if price simply presses to new highs). It is the mandatory degree-reframe alternate; the shallow, fourth-wave-like pullback keeps it secondary.

5 · Current Wave Analysis

The live wave is Intermediate (2) of Primary ④ — a corrective pullback from the 25,900.10 ATH. On the hourly it is tracing an initial Minor a down to 24,830 (8 Jul) with RSI at 25.8 (oversold), suggesting the first downdraft is stretched. A typical (2) bottoms in the 0.382–0.618 retrace band before Primary ④ resumes via Intermediate (3).

Attribute	Reading
Wave / degree / direction	Intermediate (2) / Intermediate / down (corrective)
Start	2026-07-06, 25,900.10 (ATH)
Current	2026-07-08, 24,897.45 (swing low 24,830.2)
Retrace of Intermediate (1)	26.5% so far (fourth-wave-like / shallow)
Invalidation (bull)	< 21,863.81 (Primary ⑥ low)

Sub-wave structure & retracement supports (Intermediate (2))

Level	Ratio	Price
Shallow (0.236)	0.236 × (1)	24,948
Typical (0.382)	0.382 × (1)	24,358
Midpoint (0.5)	0.5 × (1)	23,882
Deep (0.618)	0.618 × (1)	23,406

Primary ④ upside targets (extended-third → ④ ≈ ①)

Target	Basis	Price
T1	ATH reclaim / round-number	26,000
T2	④ = 1.0 × ① (equality)	26,530
T3	1.618 × inverse Primary ⑥ (extended fifth)	27,760

Wave-Pivot Indicator Table

Pivot	Date	Close	Volume	RSI_14	UO	Read
Primary ② low	2023-10-23	14,800.7	61.3M	31.8	43.2	Oversold — ② bottom
Int (3) of ③ top	2025-03-18	23,380.7	80.7M	61.5	52.9	Strong third
Int (4) of ③ low	2025-04-09	19,670.9	141.6M	28.0	44.2	Capitulation low
Primary ③ top	2026-01-13	25,420.7	51.7M	79.5	75.8	Peak momentum (extended 3rd)
Primary ⑥ low	2026-03-23	22,653.9	104.9M	33.1	38.4	Oversold — ⑥ bottom
Int (1) of ④ top (ATH)	2026-07-06	25,817.9	42.8M	66.7	n/a	Lower RSI high vs ③ — wave-1 divergence
Current (Int (2))	2026-07-08	24,897.4	65.7M	48.0	n/a	Pullback in progress

UO is unavailable (n/a) on the last two daily bars in the source data.

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Layer	Timeframe	Current wave	Direction	Bias	Key support	Key resistance	Aligned
Macro	Monthly / Weekly	Cycle V / Primary ④	Up	Bullish	21,864	25,900 / 26,530	✓
Primary	Daily	Primary ④ (Int (2) dip)	Up (pausing)	Bullish	23,406	25,900	✓
Intermediate	1-Hour	Intermediate (2)	Down	Corrective	24,350	25,900	✓
Minor	30-Minute	Minor a of (2)	Down	Down (oversold)	24,600	25,160	✓

All degrees align around one read: a bullish Primary/Cycle uptrend taking a shallow, oversold intraday breather. The daily and weekly trends are up; only the 1-hour / 30-minute layers are counter-trend, which is exactly what an Intermediate (2) should look like. A bounce from the 24,350–23,900 band that holds above 21,864 keeps the highest-confidence path a long toward 26,500+.

Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)

Setup	Entry zone	Target(s)	Tight stop	Confirmation
Buy Intermediate (2) dip	24,350 – 23,900	25,900 → 26,530	< 23,400	Hourly RSI turn up + reclaim 25,160
Momentum add (breakout)	close > 25,900	26,530 → 27,760	< 25,400	Daily close to new ATH
Bear trigger (alternate)	break < 23,400	22,300 → 20,374	> 25,900	Impulsive daily break of 21,864

7 · Waves — 1-Hour

Wave	Start	End	Start price	End price
Intermediate (1) of ④	2026-03-23	2026-07-06 09:00	21,863.81	25,900.10
Minor 4 of (1)	2026-06-19 09:00	2026-06-29 16:00	25,155.0	24,593.7
Minor 5 of (1)	2026-06-29 16:00	2026-07-06 09:00	24,593.7	25,900.10
Intermediate (2) of ④	2026-07-06 09:00	—	25,900.10	—
Minor a of (2)	2026-07-06 09:00	2026-07-08 17:00	25,900.10	24,854.7

8 · Waves — Daily

Wave	Start	End	Start price	End price
Cycle V	2022-09-28	—	11,862.84	—
Primary ①	2022-09-28	2023-07-31	11,862.84	16,528.97
Primary ②	2023-07-31	2023-10-23	16,528.97	14,630.21
Primary ③	2023-10-23	2026-01-13	14,630.21	25,507.79
Intermediate (1) of ③	2023-10-23	2024-05-15	14,630.21	18,892.92
Intermediate (2) of ③	2024-05-15	2024-08-05	18,892.92	17,024.82
Intermediate (3) of ③	2024-08-05	2025-03-18	17,024.82	23,476.01
Intermediate (4) of ③	2025-03-18	2025-04-09	23,476.01	19,384.39
Intermediate (5) of ③	2025-04-09	2026-01-13	19,384.39	25,507.79
Primary ⑥	2026-01-13	2026-03-23	25,507.79	21,863.81
Primary ④	2026-03-23	—	21,863.81	—
Intermediate (1) of ④	2026-03-23	2026-07-06	21,863.81	25,900.10
Intermediate (2) of ④	2026-07-06	—	25,900.10	—

9 · Waves — Weekly

Wave	Start	End	Start price	End price
Supercycle (V)	2009-02-01	—	3,843.74	—
Cycle III	2009-02-01	2021-12-01	3,843.74	15,884.86
Cycle IV	2021-12-01	2022-09-28	15,884.86	11,862.84
Cycle V	2022-09-28	—	11,862.84	—

10 · Disclaimer

This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.