Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v5beta3 (v5.0-beta3) · Report generated Thursday, 9 July 2026, 11:20 EEST
Overview
Last close: $7,482.71 (8 July 2026). Primary count: Cycle wave V up — Primary ③ topped at the 7620.90 ATH (2 Jun 2026), Primary ④ bottomed 7265.93, and Primary ⑤ is now unfolding (Minor 3 in progress) toward new highs (T1 ~7,841, T2 ~8,250). Bullish above 7265.93; a daily close over 7620.90 confirms.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave + degree
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Primary ⑤ up → new all-time high
Up
Primary ⑤ (Primary); Minor 3 of ⑤ in progress
7,841
8,250
8,848
Daily close < 7265.93 weakens; < 6343.72 voids
41%
Primary ③ still extending (degree-reframe)
Up
Int (4)→(5) inside an unfinished Primary ③
7,860
8,300
8,600
Daily close < 6343.72
33%
Bear — Primary ④ / Cycle-degree correction
Down
Wave A/C of a larger Primary ④ (Primary)
7,100
6,585
6,350
Daily close > 7620.90 (ATH)
26%
SMA(18) side note (daily; descriptive only, not an input to the count or probabilities): the SMA(18) trend is rising; the lows of the last two daily bars are not below SMA(18); the highs of the last two daily bars are above SMA(18).
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Cycle wave V up from the Oct-2022 bear low; Primary ③ (extended third) completed at the 7620.90 ATH, Primary ④ bottomed 7265.93, and Primary ⑤ is now in progress (Minor 3 building).
Key signal: the pullback from the ATH is only 13% of Primary ③ (fourth-wave-like), momentum reset to neutral (RSI 53.6 / UO 60.3) with price back above a rising SMA(18) — a healthy pre-⑤ posture.
Top target: Primary ⑤ objectives at 7,841 (T1, inverse-W4), 8,250 (T2) and 8,848 (T3, 0.618×①); confirmation on a daily close above 7620.90.
Biggest risk: the 7620.90 print instead completed all of Cycle V and a larger Primary ④ correction toward 6,980–6,350 is underway — invalidated on a close back above 7620.90.
The market is in Primary ⑤ up of Cycle wave V (an impulse from the 10 Oct 2022 low at 3588.10). Primary ⑤ began at the 7265.93 low (10 Jun 2026); its Minor wave 3 is in progress (up), started 26 Jun 2026 at 7337.81, currently 7482.71.
Degree
Wave
Direction
Status
Start
End / Now
Cycle
V
Up
In progress
3588.10 (2022-10-10)
—
Primary
⑤
Up
In progress
7265.93 (2026-06-10)
—
Intermediate
(of ⑤: n/a yet)
Up
Forming
7265.93
—
Minor
3
Up
In progress
7337.81 (2026-06-26)
7482.71 (2026-07-08)
Confidence rationale: the count passes the absolute gate at Primary degree (R1/R2/R3 all true; ② low 4910.42 > ① start 3588.10; ③ +2710.48 the longest Primary leg; ④ low 7265.93 > ① top 6147.43). Weighted guideline score 0.882, Fibonacci 0.74, indicator 0.78 → calibrated confidence 0.821, no caps. The current pullback classifies fourth-wave-like (13.1% of ③), which favours the ongoing-impulse reading. No near-miss caveats.
Alternate count (26%): the 7620.90 print completed Primary ③ (or all of Cycle V) and a larger Primary ④ / Cycle-degree correction is underway toward the 6,980–6,350 zone (0.236–0.382 of ③). Invalidated on a daily close above 7620.90. A close below 7265.93 weakens Primary ⑤; below 6343.72 voids the impulse read.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
Active wave
Primary ⑤ (up) — Minor 3 in progress
Start of Primary ⑤
7265.93 on 2026-06-10
Sub-wave structure
Minor 1: 7265.93→7575.86 (Jun 15) · Minor 2: →7337.81 (Jun 26, 76.8% retrace) · Minor 3: 7337.81→ in progress (swing high 7550.40)
7265.93 (④ low / weaken) · 6,981 (0.236 of ③) · 6,585 (0.382 of ③)
Indicators (2026-07-08)
RSI_14 53.6 · UO 60.3 · Volume 5.10B — neutral-to-firm, room to run
Confirmation trigger
daily close > 7575.86 (Minor-1 high), then > 7620.90 (ATH)
Invalidation
daily close < 7265.93 (weaken); < 6343.72 (void)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Cycle V start (①)
2022-10-10
3588.10
36.4
45.7
3.83B
Bear low / new impulse
Primary ① top
2025-02-19
6147.43
61.2
75.7
4.56B
Momentum peak
Primary ② low
2025-04-08
4910.42
21.4
37.0
7.41B
Oversold washout ✓
Int (1) of ③ top
2025-05-19
5963.60
70.0
78.4
4.14B
Strong thrust
Int (3) of ③ top
2026-01-27
6978.60
58.6
47.3
5.33B
Extended sub-wave
Int (4) of ③ low
2026-03-30
6343.72
27.7
30.7
5.46B
Oversold ✓
Primary ③ ATH
2026-06-02
7620.90
75.0
65.3
5.90B
Overbought top
Primary ④ low
2026-06-10
7265.93
40.6
39.1
5.25B
Shallow reset
Minor 1 of ⑤ top
2026-06-15
7575.86
59.7
50.6
5.67B
Opening thrust
Minor 2 of ⑤ low
2026-06-26
7337.81
46.1
40.0
9.11B
Deep sharp pullback
Now (Minor 3)
2026-07-08
7482.71
53.6
60.3
5.10B
Neutral-firm, rebuilding
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current Wave
Direction
Bias
Key Support
Key Resistance
Align
Macro
Weekly
Cycle V (Primary ⑤)
Up
Bullish
7265.93
7620.90
✓
Primary
Daily
Primary ⑤ / Minor 3
Up
Bullish
7337.81
7620.90
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Minor 3 of ⑤
Up
Bullish (consolidating)
7425.97
7575.86
✓
Minute
30-Minute
Minute (i)/(ii) of Minor 3
Up
Neutral-up
7425.97
7550.40
✓
Precision Layer Signals
Timeframe
Entry zone
Target
Tight stop
Confirmation
1-Hour
7426–7460 pullbacks
7575 → 7620
< 7337.81
1h close > 7550.40
30-Minute
7430–7450
7535 → 7575
< 7425.97
30m close > 7535
Alignment narrative: all provided timeframes point the same way — a rising weekly/daily impulse with the intraday layers carving Minor 3 of Primary ⑤. Intraday momentum is consolidating just under the 7575.86 Minor-1 high; a clean break there, then above the 7620.90 ATH, unifies the layers into a fresh Primary-⑤ leg. Only a daily close back below 7265.93 would break the bullish alignment.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary ④ (down)
2026-06-02 10:30
2026-06-10 15:30
7620.90
7265.93
Minor 1 of ⑤
2026-06-10 15:30
2026-06-15 11:30
7265.93
7575.86
Minor 2 of ⑤
2026-06-15 11:30
2026-06-26 15:30
7575.86
7337.81
Minor 3 of ⑤
2026-06-26 15:30
—
7337.81
—
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle V
2022-10-10
—
3588.10
—
Primary ①
2022-10-10
2025-02-19
3588.10
6147.43
Primary ②
2025-02-19
2025-04-08
6147.43
4910.42
Primary ③
2025-04-08
2026-06-02
4910.42
7620.90
Int (1) of ③
2025-04-08
2025-05-19
4910.42
5963.60
Int (2) of ③
2025-05-19
2025-05-23
5963.60
5802.82
Int (3) of ③
2025-05-23
2026-01-27
5802.82
6978.60
Int (4) of ③
2026-01-27
2026-03-30
6978.60
6343.72
Int (5) of ③
2026-03-30
2026-06-02
6343.72
7620.90
Primary ④
2026-06-02
2026-06-10
7620.90
7265.93
Primary ⑤
2026-06-10
—
7265.93
—
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle IV (context, down)
2021-12-27
2022-10-10
4766.18
3588.10
Cycle V
2022-10-10
—
3588.10
—
Primary ①
2022-10-10
2025-02-19
3588.10
6147.43
Primary ②
2025-02-19
2025-04-08
6147.43
4910.42
Primary ③
2025-04-08
2026-06-02
4910.42
7620.90
Primary ④
2026-06-02
2026-06-10
7620.90
7265.93
Primary ⑤
2026-06-10
—
7265.93
—
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.