Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €216.50 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Thales topped at the €279.30 all-time high (Oct 2025) and is in a Primary-degree correction; after a wave (B) high near €272-€274 it has fallen to a fresh low of €212.60 (26 Jun), with daily RSI ~34 (oversold) and price below a falling SMA-200 (€244.72). Bias is bearish/corrective while under ~€245; the oversold reading flags a bounce risk.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave (C) lower / base near
Bearish
(C) Intermediate down
€240 (bounce)
€213
€205
€279.30
50%
Oversold bounce / recover
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
€238
€245
€272
€212.60
35%
Deeper to 190
Bearish
(C) extended down
€213
€205
€190
€279.30
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is below the falling SMA-200 (€244.72). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree correction off the €279.30 all-time high; wave (C) developing after a (B) high near €272-€274.
Key signal: Price is below a falling SMA-200 (€244.72) with daily RSI ~34 (oversold) - a clear corrective downtrend, though stretched.
Top target: Bounces toward €238-€245 are sell zones; wave (C) targets the €205-€213 area.
Biggest risk: Oversold RSI raises bounce risk; a daily close back above €245 (then €272) would flag the correction is ending.
Confidence: Medium - the corrective downtrend is clear, but the oversold reading and the strong defense-sector backdrop keep a bounce/base credible.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Thales completed a Primary-degree bull at the all-time high of €279.30 (2 Oct 2025) and has since been correcting in a choppy A-B-C. After a wave (B) high near €272-€274 (Jan/Apr 2026) it has fallen to a fresh low of €212.60 (26 Jun 2026) in wave (C). The current direction is down at the corrective degree, with price below the falling SMA-200 and RSI oversold.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull
Complete - into the Oct-2025 ATH (€279.30)
Primary correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from €279.30
Wave (B) high
~€272-€274 (Jan/Apr 2026)
Wave (C) (current)
In progress - down, fresh low €212.60
Next objective
€205-€213, then base
Confidence rationale: The A-B-C shape off the ATH, price below a falling SMA-200, and a series of lower highs support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: daily RSI ~34 is oversold and the European defense theme is strong, so a sharp counter-trend bounce or a base near these levels is a real possibility.
Alternate count (35%): the €212.60 low completes the correction and a base/recovery begins; a daily close above €245 (then €272) would support this. Invalidation of the deeper-bear case: a daily close above €279.30.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is wave (C) down. While price holds below €238-€245 and the SMA-200, the bias leans toward €205-€213; a reclaim of €245 would argue the correction is ending.
Item
Reading
Decline from ATH
€66.70 (€279.30 -> €212.60), ~24%
Bounce band (resistance)
€238 (61.8%) / €245 (SMA-200)
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
€244.72 (falling)
(C) objective
€205-€213, potentially €190 if extended
Invalidation-up
€279.30 (ATH); a close > €272 warns first
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary top (ATH)
2025-10-02
€279.30
overbought
high
-
All-time high
Wave (B) high
2026-04-17
€272.10
~55
~55
steady
Counter-trend bounce peak
Interim low
2026-05-18
€214.50
~40
~40
elevated
Prior swing low
Fresh low
2026-06-26
€212.60
~34
~39
elevated
Wave (C) marginal new low; oversold
Current bar
2026-06-26
€216.50
34.1
39.4
-
Weak; below SMA-200, oversold
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above €279.30 voids the corrective count; a close above €272 warns first. A break below €212.60 extends wave (C) toward €190.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary (C) down
Down
Bearish (corrective)
€213 / €190
€279
✓
Primary
Daily
Wave (C) down
Down
Bearish
€213 / €205
€240 / €245
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
€212.60
€238.90
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
€212.60
€231.40
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
€238-€245 rejection
€213 / €205
€273
1h reversal + daily close < €212.60
Oversold bounce long (counter-trend)
reclaim €222
€238 / €245
€212
daily close > €238, then > €245
Alignment narrative: All timeframes lean bearish/corrective with only intraday bounces against the trend, but momentum is oversold. The bias stays down while price is below €238-€245 and the SMA-200; a daily close above €245 would mark a likely base/bounce.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Wave (B) high
2026-04-17 09:00
2026-04-17 09:00
€272.10
€272.10
Down-leg - down
2026-06-12 09:00
2026-06-26 14:00
€240.10
€212.60
Bounce - up
2026-06-19 09:00
2026-06-23 16:00
€227.40
€231.40
Down-leg to fresh low - down (in progress)
2026-06-23 16:00
-
€231.40
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2024-02-13
2025-10-02
€131.45
€279.30
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-10-02
-
€279.30
-
Wave (A) - down
2025-10-02
2025-12-02
€279.30
€216.20
Wave (B) - up
2025-12-02
2026-04-17
€216.20
€272.10
Wave (C) - down (in progress)
2026-04-17
-
€272.10
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (multi-year) - up
2024-02-13
2025-10-02
€131.45
€279.30
Wave (A) - down
2025-10-02
2025-12-02
€279.30
€216.20
Wave (B) - up
2025-12-02
2026-04-17
€216.20
€272.10
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-10-02
-
€279.30
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.