Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v5beta3 (v5.0-beta3) · Report generated Thursday, 9 July 2026, 08:22 CEST
Overview
Last close: €19,104.3 (8 July 2026). Primary count: Cycle III up from 2020, in Primary ③'s Intermediate (5) — a Minor-4 dip is retracing ~33% of Minor 3, with a final Minor-5 high (~20,000) still expected before a Primary ④ correction. Bull invalidates on a daily close below 17,308; the bear "top-is-in" alternate voids above the 19,879 all-time high.
2 · Forecasts
Mutually-exclusive, probability-ranked scenarios (highest first). Only gate-passing counts appear. Probabilities are the normalized, calibrated confidences from the scoring system; no cap was triggered.
Scenario
Dir
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob
Primary — Minor 4 low, then Minor 5 up to finish Intermediate (5)
Up
Minor 5 (Minor) after the Minor-4 dip completes
19,880
20,011
20,350
daily close < 17,308 (voids the (5) impulse)
43%
Bearish — Primary ③ topped at 19,879; Primary ④ correction underway
Down
Primary ④ (Primary), zigzag/flat
18,100
17,308
16,247
daily close > 19,879 (new ATH)
31%
Extended bull — degree reframe: the labeled (5) is only Intermediate (3) of a larger Primary ③; Cycle III extends
Up
shallow (4) dip, then (5) up (Intermediate)
20,000
21,000
22,240
daily close < 16,247
26%
SMA(18) side note (daily; descriptive only, no bearing on the count or probabilities): the SMA(18) trend is rising; the lows of the last two bars are not both below SMA(18); the highs of the last two bars are both above SMA(18).
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Cycle wave III (up, from the 2020 low) → Primary ③ (extended third, from Sept-2022) → Intermediate (5) → currently a Minor 4 pullback in progress off the 3 July all-time high of 19,879.
Key signal: the decline from 19,879 has retraced only ~33% of Minor 3 (fourth-wave-like), RSI eased from 73 to ~50 and UO to ~44 — a healthy consolidation, not yet a trend break.
Top target: a final Minor-5 high at ~20,000–20,350 (inverse-Wave-4 projection) to complete Intermediate (5) and Primary ③.
Biggest risk: the 3-day drop is instead the first leg of a Primary ④ correction (top already in) toward 17,300 / 16,250 — the 31% bear alternate.
Confidence: primary count confidence 0.78 (guideline 0.85 / Fib 0.78 / indicator 0.65); all impulse rules pass and every leg is verified to its extreme.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
The market is in Intermediate wave (5) of Primary ③ of Cycle III — an uptrend. Within (5), Minor waves 1-2-3 are complete and a Minor 4 corrective dip is in progress from the 19,879 high (3 July 2026), reading 19,104 at the last close (intraday low 19,039).
Degree
Label
Status / current wave
Direction
Supercycle
(I)
Anchor from 1993 low (2,814)
Up
Cycle
III
In progress from 2020 low (6,330)
Up
Primary
③
In progress, extended third from 2022 low (7,242)
Up
Intermediate
(5)
In progress from 16,247 (23 Mar 2026)
Up
Minor
4
Current — pullback from 19,879
Down
Confidence rationale. The count passes the absolute gate at Primary/Intermediate degree: R1 (I2 8,879 > I1 start 7,242), R2 (I3 +9,694 is the longest, not shortest), R3 (I4 low 16,247 >> I1 end 9,742), all subdivision assignments legal, and every labeled leg verified to its terminal extreme (pivot_checks all ok). Guideline score 0.85, blended/calibrated confidence 0.78, no confidence caps applied. No sub-Minor near-miss caveats.
Alternate count. Bearish — Intermediate (5) and Primary ③ completed at the 19,879 high, and a Primary ④ correction is now underway toward 17,300 / 16,250 (probability 31%). Invalidated above 19,879 (a new ATH reinstates the bull).
5 · Current Wave Analysis
Intermediate (5) sub-structure: Minor 1 (16,247→18,508), Minor 2 (18,508→17,308, 0.53 retrace), Minor 3 (17,308→19,879, the vertical June leg), and Minor 4 in progress (19,879→19,039 so far). The Wave-5 equality target (W5≈W1 = 18,747) was met and exceeded; the advance is now working the inverse-Wave-4 band (1.236–1.618×|W4| = 19,123 / 20,011).
< 18,508 weakens; < 17,308 voids the (5) impulse; < 16,247 voids Primary ③
Indicator readings (daily) at the key pivots — this is a price index, so Volume is unavailable (0); confirmation rests on RSI_14 and UO.
Pivot
Date
Close
RSI_14
UO
Read
Intermediate (1) high
2023-07-28
9,685
65.3
72.7
Strong impulse peak
Intermediate (2) low
2023-10-26
8,963
33.4
47.0
Oversold — correction ends
Minor 3 high (of (3))
2025-03-17
13,147
57.8
53.3
Mid-third
Intermediate (3) high
2026-02-27
18,361
59.8
55.4
Extended-fifth high inside (3)
Intermediate (4) low
2026-03-23
16,888
40.5
47.3
Shallow, held mid-range
(5) Minor 2 low
2026-05-04
17,356
41.9
56.5
Correction ends, trend resumes
(5) Minor 3 high / ATH
2026-07-03
19,852
73.1
68.5
Overbought; no bearish RSI divergence vs (3) top → momentum intact
Now (Minor 4)
2026-07-08
19,104
49.6
44.4
Momentum cooling into support
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Align
Macro
Weekly
Cycle III / Primary ③
Up
Bullish
16,247
19,879
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5), Minor 4 dip
Up (dip)
Bullish
18,508 / 17,308
19,879
✓
Intraday
1-Hour
Minor 4 (a-b-c down)
Down
Bearish
18,897
19,879
⚠ counter-trend
Micro
30-Minute
c-wave of Minor 4
Down
Bearish
18,900
19,550
⚠ counter-trend
Weekly and daily are aligned bullish; the 1-hour and 30-minute show the counter-trend Minor-4 decline — an intraday correction inside a higher-degree uptrend. Resolution: treat intraday weakness as a buying opportunity toward the 18,900–19,270 support band while 17,308 holds; a daily close under 18,508 would tilt weight toward the bear alternate.
Precision-Layer Signals
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Long Minor-4 completion
19,270 → 18,900
19,880 then 20,011
daily close < 18,508
1-hour bullish reversal + UO cross back above 50
Bear trigger (alternate)
on daily close < 18,508
17,308 → 16,247
daily close > 19,879
impulsive 1-hour break of 18,508
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (5)
2026-03-23
—
16,247.3
—
Minor 1
2026-03-23
2026-04-17
16,247.3
18,508.2
Minor 2
2026-04-17
2026-05-04 17:00
18,508.2
17,308.2
Minor 3
2026-05-04 17:00
2026-07-03 15:00
17,308.2
19,879.1
Minor 4
2026-07-03 15:00
—
19,879.1
— (19,048.7 low)
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle III
2020-10-01
—
6,329.5
—
Primary ①
2020-10-01
2021-05-01
6,329.5
9,254.7
Primary ②
2021-05-01
2022-09-29
9,254.7
7,242.2
Primary ③
2022-09-29
—
7,242.2
—
Intermediate (1)
2022-09-29
2023-07-28
7,242.2
9,741.9
Intermediate (2)
2023-07-28
2023-10-26
9,741.9
8,879.3
Intermediate (3)
2023-10-26
2026-02-27
8,879.3
18,573.8
Minor 1
2023-10-26
2024-06-03
8,879.3
11,469.9
Minor 2
2024-06-03
2024-08-05
11,469.9
10,298.7
Minor 3
2024-08-05
2025-03-17
10,298.7
13,464.7
Minor 4
2025-03-17
2025-04-07
13,464.7
11,583.0
Minor 5
2025-04-07
2026-02-27
11,583.0
18,573.8
Intermediate (4)
2026-02-27
2026-03-23
18,573.8
16,247.3
Intermediate (5)
2026-03-23
—
16,247.3
—
Minor 4 (current)
2026-07-03
—
19,879.1
— (19,104.3)
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Supercycle (I)
1993-07-01
—
2,814.1
—
Cycle I
1993-07-01
2007-10-01
2,814.1
15,890.5
Cycle II
2007-10-01
2020-10-01
15,890.5
6,329.5
Cycle III
2020-10-01
—
6,329.5
—
Primary ①
2020-10-01
2021-05-01
6,329.5
9,254.7
Primary ②
2021-05-01
2022-09-29
9,254.7
7,242.2
Primary ③ (in progress)
2022-09-29
—
7,242.2
—
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.