Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $128.32 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Intel has staged a dramatic turnaround - from the $17.67 low (Apr 2025) it surged in an impulsive advance, with wave 3 reaching a fresh high of $141.45 (22 Jun 2026). Price is massively above a rising SMA-200 ($58.23). The advance reads as wave 3 (just topping) of a Primary impulse; above the $40.63 wave-2 low the structure holds. A wave-4 pullback is the favoured next move.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave 4 dip, then 5 up
Bearish
(4) down then (5) up
$118 (23.6%)
$103
$160 (then up)
$40.63
50%
Wave 3 extends higher
Bullish
(3) extension up
$150
$160
$170
$40.63
30%
Blow-off, deeper correction
Bearish
Larger correction
$103
$85
$75
$141.45
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are not below it and the highs are above it; price is far above the rising SMA-200 ($58.23). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Wave 3 (just topping) of a Primary impulse off the $17.67 low; a stunning ~8x recovery to $141.45.
Key signal: Price is massively above a rising SMA-200 ($58.23) with RSI ~57 - a powerful trend, though the slope is parabolic and stretched.
Top target: A wave-4 dip toward $103-$118 is the favoured next move, then a wave 5 can extend toward $160.
Biggest risk: A parabolic move like this can correct sharply; a break of $98 then $85 would deepen the pullback.
Confidence: Medium - the impulsive advance is clear, but timing the wave-3 top of a vertical move is low-precision.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Intel has staged a dramatic turnaround. From the $17.67 low (8 Apr 2025) it surged - wave 1 to $54.60 (Jan 2026), a wave-2 dip to $40.63 (Mar 2026), and a near-vertical wave 3 to a fresh high of $141.45 (22 Jun 2026). The current direction is up, with price far above the rising SMA-200; wave 3 appears to be topping, and a wave-4 pullback is the favoured next move. The impulse is void below $40.63.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary impulse (active)
In progress - up from $17.67
Wave 1 high
$54.60 (Jan 2026)
Wave 2 low
$40.63 (Mar 2026)
Wave 3 (current)
Topping near $141.45
Next move (expected)
Wave 4 pullback, then wave 5
Confidence rationale: A clean impulsive advance off $17.67, a textbook wave-2 dip to $40.63, and price far above a rising SMA-200 confirm the bullish impulse. Counter-evidence: wave 3 is near-vertical and stretched, so a sharp wave-4 correction is likely and timing the exact top is difficult.
Alternate count (30%): wave 3 sub-divides higher to $160-$170 before the top, with only a shallow pause; a bullish variation. Invalidation of the bullish impulse: a daily close below $40.63 (and, for the immediate wave-3 case, a sustained break below $98).
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is wave 3, topping near $141.45. The favoured next move is a wave-4 pullback toward $103-$118; holding that zone sets up a wave 5 toward $160.
Item
Reading
Wave 1
$36.93 ($17.67 -> $54.60)
Wave 2 retrace
37.8% ($54.60 -> $40.63)
Wave 3 (so far)
$100.82 ($40.63 -> $141.45) - the strong leg
Wave 4 targets
$118 (23.6%) / $103 (38.2%)
Invalidation-down
$40.63 (wave-2 low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary low
2025-04-08
$17.67
oversold
low
high
Launch of the recovery
Wave 1 high
2026-01-22
$54.60
~60
~58
steady
First impulse high
Wave 2 low
2026-03-30
$40.63
~45
~45
contracting
Healthy 2nd-wave dip
Wave 3 high
2026-06-22
$141.45
~60
~58
spike
Near-vertical third-wave high
Current bar
2026-06-26
$128.32
56.8
56.4
-
Strong; far above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below $40.63 voids the bullish impulse; near term, a sustained break below $98 signals the wave-3 top is in and wave 4 underway.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary impulse up
Up
Bullish
$98 / $58
$141.45
✓
Primary
Daily
Wave 3 topping
Up
Bullish (extended)
$118 / $103
$141 / $160
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Pullback from high
Down
Neutral
$125.41
$141.45
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro pullback
Down
Neutral
$125.41
$140.72
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Pullback long (with trend)
$103-$118 hold
$141 / $160
$98
1h higher low + close > $133
Reversal short (top-pick, risky)
$140-$141 stall
$118 / $103
$142
1h reversal + daily close < $116
Alignment narrative: Weekly and daily trends are strongly up; intraday shows the first pullback from the high. While price holds above $103-$118 and the SMA-200, dips are buyable into a wave 5; the parabolic slope means a sharp wave-4 correction is the main near-term risk.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Wave 3 sub-advance - up
2026-06-05 15:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$98.33
$141.45
Pullback - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-23 09:30
$141.45
$128.35
Bounce - up
2026-06-23 09:30
2026-06-25 09:30
$128.35
$140.72
Pullback (in progress) - down
2026-06-25 09:30
-
$140.72
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse - up
2025-04-08
2026-06-22
$17.67
$141.45
Wave 1 - up
2025-04-08
2026-01-22
$17.67
$54.60
Wave 2 - down
2026-01-22
2026-03-30
$54.60
$40.63
Wave 3 - up (topping)
2026-03-30
2026-06-22
$40.63
$141.45
Pullback from high - down (in progress)
2026-06-22
-
$141.45
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse (off 2025 low) - up
2025-04-08
2026-06-22
$17.67
$141.45
Wave 2 - down
2026-01-22
2026-03-30
$54.60
$40.63
Wave 3 - up (topping)
2026-03-30
2026-06-22
$40.63
$141.45
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.