Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $47.21 (26 June 2026). Primary count: IREN (a high-beta bitcoin-mining/AI-compute name) topped at $76.87 (Nov 2025) and is in a volatile Primary-degree correction - wave (A) to $30.76 (Mar 2026), wave (B) to $70.71 (Jun 2026), and wave (C) now pulling back ($45.05). Price is around a flat SMA-200 ($48.93). Bias is corrective while under ~$71; the high-beta profile means large two-way swings.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Choppy correction lower
Bearish
(C) down-leg
$58 (bounce)
$45
$38
$76.87
45%
Bounce / recover
Bullish
Counter-trend rally
$54
$59
$70
$45.05
35%
Deeper to 31
Bearish
(C) extended / retest
$45
$38
$31
$76.87
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is just below a flat SMA-200 ($48.93). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Volatile Primary-degree correction off the $76.87 high (Nov 2025); wave (C) developing after the (B) high at $70.71.
Key signal: Price is around a flat SMA-200 ($48.93) with daily RSI ~39; as a high-beta miner, swings are large and crypto-linked.
Top target: Bounces toward $54-$59 are resistance; a break of $45 opens $38, then the $31 region.
Biggest risk: Extreme volatility tied to bitcoin - sharp rallies can occur; a daily close above $70.71 would flip the bias up.
Confidence: Low-to-medium - the high-beta, news-driven profile makes precise targets and timing unreliable.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
IREN, a high-beta bitcoin-mining/AI-compute name, topped at $76.87 (5 Nov 2025) and has been in a volatile correction. The decline to $30.76 (30 Mar 2026) was wave (A), the sharp rebound to $70.71 (3 Jun 2026) a wave (B), and price has since pulled back to $45.05 (26 Jun) in wave (C). The current direction is down at the corrective degree, with price around a flat SMA-200.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Swing high
$76.87 (Nov 2025)
Primary correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from $76.87
Intermediate (A)
Complete ($76.87 -> $30.76)
Intermediate (B)
Complete ($30.76 -> $70.71), sharp bounce
Intermediate (C) (current)
In progress - down, target $38-$45
Confidence rationale: The A-B-C shape, price around a flat SMA-200, and a rolled-over B-wave support a corrective read. Counter-evidence: IREN is extremely volatile and bitcoin-linked, so the (B) bounce to $70.71 was violent and another sharp rally cannot be ruled out - any count here is tentative.
Alternate count (35%): the $30.76 low completed the correction and the rally to $70.71 began a new advance; a daily close above $70.71 would support this. Invalidation of the corrective bias: a daily close above $70.71 (and ultimately $76.87).
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (C) down. While price holds below $54-$59 and the SMA-200, the bias leans toward $38/$31; a reclaim of $59-$70 would argue the correction is ending.
Item
Reading
Wave (A) length
$46.11 ($76.87 -> $30.76)
Wave (B) retrace of (A)
~86% ($30.76 -> $70.71) - deep
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$48.93 (flat)
(C) objective
$38-$45, potentially $31 if extended
Invalidation-up
$70.71 (B high); ultimately $76.87
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Swing high
2025-11-05
$76.87
overbought
high
spike
Top of the advance
Intermediate (A) low
2026-03-30
$30.76
oversold
low
elevated
Correction low
Intermediate (B) high
2026-06-03
$70.71
~58
~55
steady
Deep counter-trend bounce
Recent low
2026-06-26
$45.05
~39
~35
steady
Wave (C) pulling back
Current bar
2026-06-26
$47.21
38.8
34.8
-
Choppy; around SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close above $70.71 negates the immediate bearish count; a decisive break below $45 opens $38, then the $31 region. The whole correction is void above $76.87.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary correction
Down
Bearish
$38 / $31
$70 / $77
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (C) down
Down
Bearish
$45 / $38
$54 / $59
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$45.05
$63.17
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$45.05
$50.76
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$54-$59 rejection
$45 / $38
$71
1h reversal + daily close < $45.05
Bounce long (counter, risky)
$45 hold
$54 / $59
$44
daily close > $54, then > $59
Alignment narrative: All timeframes lean bearish/corrective, but IREN's high beta to bitcoin means violent two-way swings. The bias stays down while price is below $54-$70 and the SMA-200; given the volatility, position sizing should be conservative.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (B) high
2026-06-03 09:30
2026-06-03 09:30
$70.71
$70.71
Down-leg - down
2026-06-03 09:30
2026-06-11 09:30
$70.71
$50.76
Bounce - up
2026-06-11 09:30
2026-06-15 09:30
$50.76
$63.17
Down-leg - down
2026-06-15 09:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$63.17
$45.05
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:30
-
$45.05
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Advance - up
2025-04-09
2025-11-05
$5.12
$76.87
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-11-05
-
$76.87
-
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-11-05
2026-03-30
$76.87
$30.76
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-03-30
2026-06-03
$30.76
$70.71
Intermediate (C) - down (in progress)
2026-06-03
-
$70.71
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Advance (off 2025 low) - up
2025-04-09
2025-11-05
$5.12
$76.87
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-11-05
2026-03-30
$76.87
$30.76
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-03-30
2026-06-03
$30.76
$70.71
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-11-05
-
$76.87
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.