Meta Platforms, Inc., META, US30303M1027, NASDAQ, USD

Claude · elliott-wave-analyst-v5beta5 (v5.0-beta5) · Report generated Monday, 27 July 2026, 09:48 EEST

Overview

Last close: $595.20 (24 July 2026, 15:30). Cycle IV is still correcting: Primary Ⓨ is a contracting triangle from 744.00 and wave (E) is running down from 686.08 toward the 552–571 channel × Fibonacci zone — the count holds only while 540.18 does.

2 · Forecasts

#ScenarioDirectionNext wave + degreeT1T2T3InvalidationProbability
1Cycle IV Primary Ⓨ contracting triangle — wave (E) down, then the post-triangle thrustdown near term, then upIntermediate (E) of Primary Ⓨ (Cycle IV)571.40
0.786 of (D)
556.81
0.886 of (D) × A–C line
545.00
deepest legal (E)
daily close < 540.1835%
2Primary Ⓨ is a regular flat — Intermediate (C) breaks the rangedownIntermediate (C) of a Primary Ⓨ flat534.74
C = 1.0 × A
525.73 / 520.26
0.382 of Cycle III; March low
499.02
C = 1.236 × A
daily close > 691.5233%
3Wave (E) already complete at 594.60 — the thrust is under wayupPost-triangle thrust / Primary ① of Cycle V686.08
(D) high
744.00
Ⓧ shelf
796.25
all-time high
daily close < 540.1832%
How these numbers were produced. Every count above cleared the mechanical gate (validate_count.py: 36 pattern-rule, 49 subdivision and 45 pivot checks, valid = true, no near-miss caveats). The probabilities are scenario_probabilities over the calibrated confidences — S1 0.7500 (raw 0.8430, capped at 0.75 by nesting_unverified), S2 0.7042, S3 0.6993. The three sit close together because a mid-range corrective structure genuinely supports more than one reading: treat the “primary” as a lean, not a conviction call. The 540.18 / 691.52 pair is what separates them.

Roadmap — primary scenario (Cycle IV triangle → thrust)

Step 0 — base channel & trigger. The base is the Cycle IV triangle itself: a lower boundary through the (A) low 520.26 (27 Mar 2026) and the (C) low 540.18 (25 Jun 2026), and an upper boundary through the (B) high 691.52 (17 Apr 2026) and the (D) high 686.08 (15 Jul 2026). channel_touch returns exact touches (distance 0.000 of channel width) at both (B) and (D). The lines converge to an apex on 27 Nov 2027 at 655.27. Vertical width on 24 Jul 2026 = 138.93 (546.60 → 685.53). Trigger: not active — it requires two consecutive daily closes above the B–D boundary (≈684 mid-Aug, ≈682 mid-Sep, ≈680 mid-Oct 2026), then a weekly close above the 744.00 shelf.

Step 1 — retracement grid of the last completed advance ((D) 540.18 → 686.08): 0.382 = 630.35 · 0.5 = 613.13 · 0.618 = 595.91 (reached — last close 595.20) · 0.786 = 571.40 · 0.886 = 556.81.

Step 2 — base projection (conditional, inactive). Anchored 520.26 → 796.25 (range 275.99): 1.382 = 901.68, 1.618 = 966.81, 2.0 = 1072.24. Independently, the classic triangle-thrust measure (widest part 223.74 added to a ~684 boundary break) gives ≈908 — confirming the 1.382 level. These enter the target menu only once the trigger fires.

LegDirectionTarget zoneDate windowBasis
Intermediate (E) of Primary Ⓨdown552.00 – 571.5014 Aug – 3 Oct 20260.786–0.886 retracement of (D) (571.40 / 556.81) in confluence with the rising A–C boundary (551.47 on 14 Aug, 558.33 on 15 Sep, 564.97 on 15 Oct). fib_line_confluence places 556.81 on the A–C line between 14 Aug and 3 Oct 2026. Must hold above 540.18.
Post-triangle thrust — first leg of Cycle Vup700.00 – 744.0015 Nov 2026 – 31 Jan 2027B–D breakout (~680) and recovery of the 744.00 Ⓧ shelf.
Cycle V continuationup796.25 – 901.681 Feb – 31 Dec 2027Reclaim of the 796.25 all-time high, then the 1.382 base projection at 901.68.

Step 3 — forward retracement grids (corrections priced before they happen). Projected thrust leg 556.81 → 744.00: 0.382 = 672.49 · 0.5 = 650.41 · 0.618 = 628.32. Projected leg 560.00 → 796.25: 0.382 = 706.00 · 0.5 = 678.13 · 0.618 = 650.25.

Previous roadmap — grading

A prior roadmap exists (generated 24 Jul 2026, data through 23 Jul 2026). Only one further bar has printed since, so every dated leg is still open.

Previous legTarget / windowGradeNote
Intermediate (C) / Cycle IV low500–535 · 24 Jul – 30 Sep 2026pendingPrice moved toward the zone (606.10 → 595.20) but the low so far, 594.60, is ~60 pts above it. Neither hit nor invalidated.
Cycle V (1) up688–796 · 1 Oct – 31 Dec 2026pendingWindow has not opened.
Cycle V (3)/(5) extension887–970 · during 2027pendingWindow has not opened.
Trigger (weekly close > 796.25)pendingStill inactive — unchanged and consistent with the new run.

Grade: 0 hit / 0 missed / 0 invalidated; 3 legs pending. One material structural revision: the prior run read the decline from 691.52 as the C-leg of a Primary flat targeting 500–535. This run finds that (B) 691.52 and (D) 686.08 lie on one straight boundary while (A) 520.26 and (C) 540.18 lie on a converging one, so Ⓨ is re-labelled a contracting triangle whose wave (E) may not breach 540.18. The 500–535 zone therefore moves from the primary target to the bearish alternate (33%), and the primary downside now stops at 552–571.

2026-07-27T09:48:49.204286 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.9, https://matplotlib.org/
SMA(18) side note (daily). General trend direction per SMA(18): rising (last value 628.14). The lows of the last two daily ticks are below SMA(18); the highs of the last two daily ticks are not above SMA(18). Descriptive only — SMA(18) is excluded from the wave count, the gate, every score, the forecast and the probabilities, and it is not charted.

3 · Executive Summary

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

The active wave is Intermediate (E), direction down, the fifth and final leg of the contracting triangle that forms Primary — itself the last component of the Primary double three that is Cycle IV. It began at 686.08 on 15 July 2026 and has carried to 594.60 so far.

Degree hierarchySupercycle (I) → Cycle IV → Primary Ⓨ → Intermediate (E) → Minor C → Minute v
Started15 July 2026 at 686.08
Travelled so far−91.48 pts (−13.3%); 0.627 of wave (D)
Structurezigzag — Minor A 686.08→626.00, Minor B 626.00→655.88, Minor C 655.88→(in progress)

Degree hierarchy

DegreeLabelDirectionStartEndStatus
Supercycle(I)up2012-09-04 · 17.55in progress
CycleIVdown2025-08-15 · 796.25in progress
PrimaryⓎ (contracting triangle)down2026-01-29 · 744.00in progress
Intermediate(E)down2026-07-15 · 686.08current wave
MinorC of (E)down2026-07-21 · 655.88in progress
Minutev of Minor Cdown2026-07-24 09:30 · 609.98in progress

Confidence rationale

The count passed the mechanical gate: validate_count.py returned valid: true across 36 pattern-rule, 49 subdivision and 45 pivot-extreme checks, with no near-miss caveats. The headline invariants all hold at every impulse node — R1 wave2_not_beyond_start_wave1 ✓, R2 wave3_not_shortest ✓, R3 wave4_not_beyond_end_wave1 ✓. Seven items were returned for analyst judgment (pass: null) and are resolved below.

Scoring: guideline_score 0.8721 · fib_score 0.7478 · indicator_score 0.8800 → blended 0.8430, calibrated to 0.75 after the nesting_unverified cap (0.75). That cap is honest: Cycle III and its Primary ③ are decomposed and verified, but the Intermediate-degree impulses inside them (and inside Cycle II) are asserted rather than decomposed, so the count cannot score as if it were fully nested.

Analyst resolution of the seven pass: null gate items

Alternate count and invalidation

Primary Ⓨ is a regular flat, not a triangle — Intermediate (C) down through 540.18 (33%). Under this reading Primary Ⓨ began at 691.52 (17 Apr 2026) as a regular flat: (A) 691.52→540.18, (B) 540.18→686.08 retracing 0.964 of (A) — clearing the flat's absolute 0.90 requirement — and (C) is the impulse now unfolding. Targets: C = 1.0 × A → 534.74; 0.382 of Cycle III → 525.73 and the March low 520.26; C = 1.236 × A → 499.02; C = 1.382 × A → 476.93. Invalidated by a daily close above 691.52. The flat reading has to treat the exact A–C and B–D boundary touches as coincidence, and it wants expanding volume behind the C-leg — volume is contracting — which is why it scores below the triangle.

The mandatory degree-reframe of the completed Cycle III impulse was constructed and weighed: the same five waves 88.09→796.25 read as Primary ③ of a still-unfinished Cycle III, making the present structure Primary ④ with Primary ⑤ still ahead. classify_pullback on the decline (796.25→520.26 = 0.390 of Cycle III) returns fourth_wave_like, which supports the reframe's premise and, equally, the primary count's own claim that this is a fourth wave with new highs beyond it. The reframe is therefore carried inside scenarios 1 and 3 rather than as a fourth competing row: it changes the label of the coming advance (a fifth wave rather than a Cycle V first wave), not its direction or its 744 / 796 / 901 targets.

5 · Current Wave Analysis

WaveIntermediate (E) of Primary Ⓨ (Cycle IV) — final leg of a contracting triangle
Direction / statusdown · in progress
Start15 July 2026 · 686.08
Current24 July 2026 · 595.20 (session low 594.60)
Retracement of (D)0.627 — just past the 0.618 level at 595.91
Absolute invalidation540.18 — wave E of a contracting triangle may never move beyond the end of wave C

Sub-wave structure (completed + in progress)

Wave (E) is a zigzag. Minor A 686.08 (15 Jul, 11:30) → 626.00 (17 Jul, 10:30), −60.08. Minor B 626.00 → 655.88 (21 Jul, 09:30), retracing 0.497 of A. Minor C is the impulse now unfolding from 655.88; on the 1-hour data it counts:

Sub-Minor watch level. Minute iii measures 17.42 and Minute i 31.88, so Minute v must stay shorter than 17.42 for R2 (“wave 3 is never the shortest”) to hold at Minute degree — i.e. a print below 592.56 forces a relabel. Per the Figure-4 heuristic the correct repair would be that Minute iii is still extending: what looks like iii-iv-v is i-ii of an extending third. That is a labelling change inside Minor C, not a change to the triangle.

Fibonacci targets and supports

LevelPriceBasis
0.618 of (D)595.91reached — the last close 595.20 sits just below it
T1 — 0.786 of (D)571.40first objective for wave (E)
T2 — 0.886 of (D)556.81highest-confidence zone: fib_line_confluence puts this level on the rising A–C boundary between 14 Aug and 3 Oct 2026
A–C boundary551.47 (14 Aug) · 558.33 (15 Sep) · 564.97 (15 Oct)the triangle's lower line; wave E usually terminates at or just short of it
T3 — deepest legal (E)545.00just above the (C) low; |E| must stay under |C| = 151.34
Invalidation540.18the (C) low — a daily close below it voids the triangle
Resistance609.98 · 628.09 · 655.88 · 686.08Minute iv high, Minute i low, Minor B high, (D) high / B–D boundary

Indicator readings now

Daily (24 Jul 2026): close 595.20 · volume 11.49M against a 19.4M 20-day average · RSI_14 46.30 · UO 47.15 (23 Jul) · SMA_50 606.07 · SMA_100 615.31 · SMA_200 638.07 — price below all three, with SMA_50 under SMA_200. Weekly: RSI 46.95, UO 42.68 — neutral, no capitulation. 1-hour: RSI 24.32, UO 41.37. 30-minute: RSI 27.19, UO 34.85 — both deeply oversold, which is why the primary count expects a bounce inside wave (E) before its low rather than a straight run to 556.

Data handling. The final daily bar (24 Jul 2026) arrived with an empty Close and empty UO/SMA fields — a partial session, not a gap to zero. It was repaired rather than dropped: the Close was set to 595.20, the true last print carried by the 1-hour file at 24 Jul 15:30, which sits inside the bar's own 594.60–609.98 range, and the SMA columns were recomputed. All pivot lookups, the gate and the chart run on that repaired series; the UO reading quoted above is therefore the 23 July value.

Wave-pivot indicator table

PivotDateCloseVolumeRSI_14UORead
Cycle IV start / all-time high2025-08-15785.2313.4M63.250.6momentum already below the Feb-2025 peak reading of 84.0 — a fifth-wave top
Primary Ⓦ low2025-11-19590.3224.7M23.346.9oversold on RSI, expanding volume — a completed corrective leg
Primary Ⓧ high / triangle start2026-01-29738.3159.9M73.869.5the volume and momentum peak of the whole correction
Triangle (A) low2026-03-27525.7230.1M22.527.3deepest momentum extreme of the triangle
Triangle (B) high2026-04-17688.5516.3M69.869.6
Triangle (C) low2026-06-25542.8717.0M34.131.3higher price and higher RSI/UO than (A) — the contraction confirmed
Triangle (D) high2026-07-15681.3119.0M66.866.1lower price and lower RSI/UO than (B) — the contraction confirmed on the other side
Minor A low of (E)2026-07-17646.0122.3M56.864.0
Minor B high of (E)2026-07-21643.819.1M56.251.5lightest volume of the sequence — a counter-trend bounce
Current2026-07-24595.2011.5M46.347.1 (23 Jul)no oversold extreme and no bullish divergence yet at daily degree — the leg low is probably not in

Weighted guideline checklist (primary count)

GuidelineHedge weightSatisfied
Alternation: Cycle II sharp zigzag vs Cycle IV horizontal combinationalmost always
Wave 2 (Cycle II) is a zigzagusually
Wave 4 (Cycle IV) is a flat / triangle / flat-combination familyusually
Wave 4 ends within the price range of sub-wave four of Wave 3 (Cycle III ④ 479.80–740.91)typically
Extension sits in Wave 3 at Supercycle degree (Cycle III is the longest Cycle wave)usually
Extension in the usual place inside Cycle I — on the semilog scale appropriate to a 22-fold advance, ③ (×4.00) is the extended leg and ① (×3.14) ≈ ⑤ (×3.12)usually
A combination is likely when one zigzag looks too small for the corrective spacelikely
A double three is usually horizontal in characterusually
The X wave of a combination is most commonly a zigzag (Ⓧ is a zigzag)2.0
Zigzag Wave C almost always ends beyond the end of Wave A (sub-zigzags (A) and (C))almost always
Zigzag Wave B typically retraces 0.38–0.79 of Wave A (holds in (C), fails in (A) at 0.20)typically
Equality/Fibonacci ratio of the non-extended legs (Cycle III ⑤/① = 1.33 ≈ 1.382)tend
Wave 2 usually retraces 0.5–0.618 of Wave 1 (Cycle II retraced 0.808)usually
Wave 4 typically retraces 0.236–0.382 of Wave 3 (Cycle IV 0.390 so far)typically
The centre of Wave 3 almost always has the steepest slope (Cycle III 0.70 pts/day vs Cycle I 0.11)almost always
The extended sub-wave is often the same number as the parent wave (holds for Cycle III→③; fails for Cycle I)often
Triangle Wave B does not end beyond the start of Wave A (691.52 < 744.00)about 60% of the time
Triangle Wave C is the longer-lasting subwave ((C) 69 d vs (A) 57 d, (B) 21 d, (D) 20 d; (A) is the deeper one)usually
Triangle position: wave 4 of an impulse or the final leg of a combinationtypically
Channeling: converging A–C / B–D boundaries with exact computed touches at (B) and (D)often
Patience check: triangle legs alternate in duration (A 57 d, B 21 d, C 69 d, D 20 d) — (E) at 9 d is still developingtypically
Triangle Wave E undershoots/overshoots the A–C linemore often than notn/a

Fibonacci confluence detail (fib_confluence_score = 0.7478)

RelationshipMeasuredNearest expectedDistanceSub-score
Cycle IV retrace of Cycle III (796.25→520.26)0.38970.3820.00770.9485
Cycle II retrace of Cycle I0.80770.7860.02170.8555
Cycle III ③ / ①1.95932.00.04070.7287
Cycle III ② retrace of ①0.21760.2360.01840.8775
Cycle III ④ retrace of ③0.55970.6180.05830.6112
Cycle III ⑤ / ①1.32901.3820.05300.6467
Primary Ⓧ retrace of Ⓦ (combination X)0.75700.7640.00700.9532
Triangle (B) / (A)0.76540.7860.02060.8629
Triangle (C) / (B)0.88370.8860.00230.9846
Triangle (D) / (C)0.96410.8860.07810.4796
(A) zigzag C / A0.86491.00.13510.0995
(C) zigzag C / A1.03941.00.03940.7372
(C) zigzag B retrace of A0.50950.50.00950.9366

Indicator confluence detail (indicator_confluence_score = 0.88)

CheckHedge weightSatisfiedDetail
Volume contracts through the Ⓨ structure — (A) low 30.1M, (C) low 17.0M, last bars 15.5M/11.5M vs 20-day avg 19.4M: the textbook triangle signatureusuallycontracting
Momentum contracts leg by leg — (B) RSI 69.8 → (D) 66.8; (A) RSI 22.5 → (C) 34.1usuallyconverging
Daily momentum at the current low is not yet at a corrective extreme (RSI 46.3, UO 47.1 vs 34.1/31.3 at the (C) low) — the leg has roomoftenRSI 46.3 / UO 47.1
No bullish RSI/UO divergence at the current low — the leg low is not yet inusuallyno divergence
Price below SMA_50 606.07, SMA_100 615.31 and SMA_200 638.07 (SMA_50 < SMA_200) — a further corrective leg is favouredusuallybelow all three
1-hour RSI 24.3 and 30-minute RSI 27.2 are deeply oversold — the immediate sub-wave is stretched and argues for a bounce firstoftenh1 RSI 24.3 / mi30 27.2
Weekly RSI 46.95 / UO 42.68 are neutral — consistent with mid-correction, not capitulationoftenweekly neutral

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

LayerTimeframeCurrent waveDirectionBiasKey supportKey resistanceAlignment
MacroMonthlySupercycle (I), Cycle IV correctionsideways / downbullish long term, neutral now520.26796.25
CycleWeeklyPrimary Ⓨ contracting triangledown within a contracting rangeneutral540.18686.08 (B–D boundary)
PrimaryDailyIntermediate (E) of Ⓨdownbearish near term556.81 · 540.18628.09 · 655.88
Intermediate / Minor1-HourMinor C of (E)downbearish594.60 · 571.40609.98 · 628.09
Minute30-MinuteMinute v of Minor Cdown, deeply oversoldbearish but stretched594.60604.91 · 609.98

Every layer points the same way — down inside a contracting range — so there is no cross-timeframe conflict to resolve at the structural level. The single ⚠ is a timing divergence, not a structural one: at 30-minute degree RSI is 27.2 and UO 34.9, and at 1-hour degree RSI is 24.3, while the daily is only at RSI 46.3. Intraday momentum is stretched well ahead of the daily, which is what an unfinished corrective leg looks like — it argues for a bounce inside wave (E) before its low, not for the low itself. The resolution is to treat 594.60 as a Minute-degree extreme, not an Intermediate-degree one.

Precision layer signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)

SetupEntry zoneTargetStopConfirmation
Wave (E) completion — the primary plan552 – 571 (T2 556.81 preferred)686.08, then 744.00daily close below 540.18a bullish RSI/UO divergence at 30-minute and 1-hour degree against a lower price low, with volume contracting into it
Counter-trend bounce inside (E) (Minute b/iv)594.60 – 597.22609.98 – 628.091-hour close below 592.561-hour RSI recovering back above 30 from 24.3
Bearish alternate — range breaka daily close below 540.18534.74 → 525.73/520.26 → 499.02daily close back above 571.40expanding volume on the breakdown bar (above the 19.4M 20-day average) — absent so far
Triangle breakout — thrust confirmationtwo daily closes above the B–D boundary (≈684 mid-Aug, ≈682 mid-Sep)744.00 → 796.25 → 901.68daily close back inside the trianglea volume expansion on the breakout bar; channel_breakout currently returns no valid forward trigger

7 · Waves — 1-Hour

WaveStartEndStart priceEnd price
Intermediate (E) — Primary Ⓨ2026-07-15 11:30686.08
Minor A of (E)2026-07-15 11:302026-07-17 10:30686.08626.00
Minor B of (E)2026-07-17 10:302026-07-21 09:30626.00655.88
Minor C of (E)2026-07-21 09:30655.88
Minute i of Minor C2026-07-21 09:302026-07-22 15:30655.88624.00
Minute ii of Minor C2026-07-22 15:302026-07-23 09:30624.00614.64
Minute iii of Minor C2026-07-23 09:302026-07-23 11:30614.64597.22
Minute iv of Minor C2026-07-23 11:302026-07-24 11:30597.22609.98
Minute v of Minor C2026-07-24 11:30609.98

8 · Waves — Daily

WaveStartEndStart priceEnd price
Cycle IV2025-08-15796.25
Primary Ⓦ (zigzag)2025-08-152025-11-19796.25581.25
Primary Ⓧ (zigzag)2025-11-192026-01-29581.25744.00
Primary Ⓨ (contracting triangle)2026-01-29744.00
Intermediate (A) of Ⓨ2026-01-292026-03-27744.00520.26
Minor A of (A)2026-01-292026-03-13744.00609.55
Minor B of (A)2026-03-132026-03-17609.55636.55
Minor C of (A)2026-03-172026-03-27636.55520.26
Intermediate (B) of Ⓨ2026-03-272026-04-17520.26691.52
Intermediate (C) of Ⓨ2026-04-172026-06-25691.52540.18
Minor A of (C)2026-04-172026-05-12691.52592.60
Minor B of (C)2026-05-122026-05-28592.60643.00
Minor C of (C)2026-05-282026-06-25643.00540.18
Intermediate (D) of Ⓨ2026-06-252026-07-15540.18686.08
Intermediate (E) of Ⓨ2026-07-15686.08
Minor A of (E)2026-07-152026-07-17686.08626.00
Minor B of (E)2026-07-172026-07-21626.00655.88
Minor C of (E)2026-07-21655.88

9 · Waves — Weekly

WaveStartEndStart priceEnd price
Supercycle (I)2012-09-0417.55
Cycle I (impulse)2012-09-042021-09-0117.55384.33
Primary ① of I2012-09-042014-03-1117.5572.59
Primary ② of I2014-03-112014-04-2872.5954.66
Primary ③ of I2014-04-282018-07-2554.66218.62
Primary ④ of I2018-07-252018-12-24218.62123.02
Primary ⑤ of I2018-12-242021-09-01123.02384.33
Cycle II (zigzag)2021-09-012022-11-04384.3388.09
Primary Ⓐ of II2021-09-012022-04-27384.33169.00
Primary Ⓑ of II2022-04-272022-05-04169.00224.30
Primary Ⓒ of II2022-05-042022-11-04224.3088.09
Cycle III (impulse)2022-11-042025-08-1588.09796.25
Primary ① of III2022-11-042023-07-2888.09326.20
Primary ② of III2023-07-282023-08-18326.20274.38
Primary ③ of III2023-08-182025-02-14274.38740.91
Intermediate (1) of ③2023-08-182023-10-12274.38330.54
Intermediate (2) of ③2023-10-122023-10-26330.54279.40
Intermediate (3) of ③2023-10-262024-12-11279.40638.40
Intermediate (4) of ③2024-12-112024-12-20638.40580.00
Intermediate (5) of ③2024-12-202025-02-14580.00740.91
Primary ④ of III2025-02-142025-04-21740.91479.80
Primary ⑤ of III2025-04-212025-08-15479.80796.25
Cycle IV (double three)2025-08-15796.25
Primary Ⓦ of IV2025-08-152025-11-19796.25581.25
Primary Ⓧ of IV2025-11-192026-01-29581.25744.00
Primary Ⓨ of IV (triangle)2026-01-29744.00

10 · Disclaimer

This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.