Merck & Co., Inc., MRK, US58933Y1055, NYSE, USD

2 · Forecasts

Probabilities are the normalised calibrated confidences from scenario_probabilities (0.7124 / 0.6845 / 0.5145) and sum to 100%. A and B sit almost level because classify_pullback returns ambiguous (0.531) for the 2024-25 decline — the corpus instruction in that case is to carry both at comparable weight. Together they put ~73% on a further push into the mid-130s over the next four to eight weeks.

3 · Executive Summary

• Wave position. MRK is in Minor 5 of Intermediate (5) of Primary ①, the closing leg of the five-wave advance that began at the 2025-05-15 low of 73.31. That advance is itself the opening Primary wave of Cycle III inside Supercycle (V) from March 2009 — the count passed the mechanical gate with no rule failures.
• Key signal. Every Fibonacci and channel method converges on the same shelf: 1.618 × |Intermediate (4)| = 135.79, 0.618 × |Intermediate (3)| = 137.29, Minor 0.618 × |M3| = 136.57, and the preferred impulse-channel upper parallel runs through 135.79 between 25 July and 3 August. The June-2024 all-time high 134.63 sits inside that zone.
• Top target. 134.6 – 137.3 by roughly 21 August 2026, with a conditional throw-over extension into the 141.0 – 144.3 multi-degree channel confluence during September. Beyond the 134.63 breakout the base projection opens 158.05 / 172.53 / 195.95 for Cycle III.
• Biggest risk. The advance is a fifth wave at Intermediate degree with RSI already diverging (70.4 versus 83.4 at the wave-(3) peak) and wave-(5) volume a quarter below wave-(3) volume. A failure at 134.63 followed by a break of 124.10, then 111.57, hands the tape to the bearish alternate, in which the whole rally is wave Ⓑ of an unfinished Cycle II expanded flat and wave Ⓒ targets 95.6 and lower.
• Confidence. Calibrated 0.71 (guideline 0.776, Fibonacci 0.626, indicator 0.672; no caps bound). Direction is well supported; degree is not — the mandatory reframe (B) scores within a point of the primary, so treat "Cycle III just starting" versus "Cycle I finishing" as genuinely open.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Current wave: Minor 5 (Minor degree), up, running from 2026-07-21 at 124.10. It is the fifth Minor leg of Intermediate (5), which is itself the fifth Intermediate leg of Primary ① — the first Primary wave of Cycle III. Last close 131.09 (24 July 2026), 5.6% below the all-time high.

Degree hierarchy

Confidence rationale

Gate: validate_count.py ran 45 pattern-rule, 47 subdivision and 43 pivot checks against the daily file and returned valid: true — R1 (wave 2 not beyond the start of wave 1), R2 (wave 3 not the shortest) and R3 (wave 4 not beyond the end of wave 1) all pass at every degree in the tree, every parent→child pairing is legal against the subdivision master table, and every completed leg terminates at its true extreme (forward-scanned to the start of the wave after next). No near-miss caveats were raised.

Judgment items returned as pass: null (8) and how each is resolved:

• “Never are waves 1, 3 and 5 all extended” — 7 impulse nodes. Resolved: in every one of them a single leg carries the extension. Cycle I |①|=41.57 / |③|=76.05 / |⑤|=35.49 → third extended; Primary ①, ③ and ⑤ likewise; Intermediate (3) |1|=13.42 / |3|=30.89 / |5|=19.11 → third extended; Intermediate (5) has |1|=15.56 / |3|=20.17 with wave 5 still running. No node has two, let alone three, extended sub-waves.
• Pitfall — wave 4 retraces 87% of wave 3 in Intermediate (1). Resolved: Intermediate (1) is an expanding leading diagonal, not an impulse. Deep, overlapping 2-4 retracements are the signature of the pattern (the corpus expects 0.66–0.81 and explicitly permits the 1/4 overlap); R3 does not apply to diagonals and the script confirms wave 4 (76.66) stays above the end of wave 2 (75.40). The 0.872 reading is beyond the usual band and is scored as a failed guideline rather than waved away.

Scores: guideline 0.776 over 30 applicable weighted guidelines, Fibonacci confluence 0.6256 over 18 measured relationships, indicator confluence 0.6721 over 16 checks; blended at 0.5 / 0.25 / 0.25 → raw 0.7124. Caps: the four calibration flags were evaluated — premature_termination_untested does not apply (the degree reframe was built, gated and scored as scenario B); pivot_unverified does not apply (43 pivot checks, all ok); extension_fragile does not apply (identify_extension returns wave 3 with fragile: false for Cycle I and “undetermined” for the running Intermediate (5) — no extended-fifth-exceeds-third labelling anywhere); nesting_unverified was flagged for consideration because the terminal Intermediate legs inside the pre-2024 Primary waves are carried as context rather than decomposed — but its 0.75 cap does not bind, since the blended confidence is already below it. calibrate_confidence therefore returned 0.7124 with caps_applied: [].

Weighted guideline checklist (primary count)

Alternate count

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Sub-wave structure of Intermediate (5) — done and in progress

• Minor 1 2026-04-29 107.90 → 2026-06-05 123.46 (+15.56). The 2026-05-26 high of 123.13 is not the terminal extreme — verify_pivot_extreme's forward scan finds 123.46 on 5 June before Minor 2 begins.
• Minor 2 → 2026-06-18 111.57 (−11.89, 0.764 of Minor 1) — a sharp zigzag.
• Minor 3 → 2026-07-17 131.74 (+20.17 = 1.296 × Minor 1, close to 1.272).
• Minor 4 → 2026-07-21 124.10 (−7.64, 0.379 of Minor 3 — all but exactly 0.382, and one tick above the 0.382 grid line at 124.04). Alternation holds: Minor 2 sharp, Minor 4 shallow. R3 clears by 0.64 pts (124.10 vs the Minor 1 top of 123.46).
• Minor 5 in progress from 124.10. On the hourly file it has already traced Minute i 124.10 → 126.77, ii → 124.80, iii → 128.83, iv → 127.35 and v from 127.35, with the last print 131.71.

Fibonacci targets

Retracement supports beneath the market: 0.382 of Intermediate (5) = 122.63 · 0.5 = 119.82 · 0.618 = 117.01; Minor 4 low 124.10; Minor 2 low 111.57; Intermediate (4) low 107.90.

Indicator readings now

Daily (23 July, the last bar carrying a settlement close): RSI_14 61.2, UO 49.5, volume 8.53 M against a 20-day mean of 11.23 M; price above SMA_50 120.72, SMA_100 118.52 and SMA_200 110.28, with SMA_50 well clear of SMA_200 (golden cross intact). Hourly at the 24 July close: RSI_14 67.0, UO 58.2. 30-minute: RSI_14 61.5, UO 47.7 — momentum rolling over into the close after tagging 131.71. throwover_volume_spike at the 17 July Minor 3 high returns ratio 1.20 — no spike, so that high was not a terminal throw-over.

Wave-pivot indicator table

Indicator confluence checklist (score 0.6721)

Fibonacci confluence detail (score 0.6256)

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Alignment narrative. Every timeframe points the same way, which is the highest-confidence configuration for a long bias — but they also all say late rather than early. Weekly and monthly have Cycle III only beginning; daily has the fifth Intermediate leg of its first Primary wave; hourly has the fifth Minor leg of that fifth; 30-minute has the fifth Minute leg of that. Five-of-five-of-five nesting with RSI divergence at the Intermediate degree (70.4 now versus 83.4 at the wave-(3) peak) is a terminal signature for this advance, not for the trend above it. No cross-timeframe conflict was found: no lower-degree count breaches its parent's boundary, and the 1-hour structure off 111.57 is a clean five in the direction of the daily Intermediate (5), confirming it.

Precision-layer signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)

7 · Waves — 1-Hour

8 · Waves — Daily

9 · Waves — Weekly

10 · Disclaimer