Microsoft Corporation, MSFT, US5949181045, NASDAQ, USD

2 · Forecasts

3 · Executive Summary

• Wave position. MSFT is in Cycle IV, the correction of the 2009–2025 Cycle III advance (14.87 → 555.45). Primary Ⓐ (555.45 → 356.28) and Primary Ⓑ (→ 466.32) are complete; the market is inside Primary Ⓒ, in Intermediate (3) down from 405.99 (16 Jul 2026). Last close 381.74.
• Key signal. The tape is in a genuine drawdown, not a pause in an uptrend: price is 31% below the all-time high and below SMA_50 (399.18), SMA_100 (398.95) and SMA_200 (436.12), with SMA_50 < SMA_200 (death cross). The 349.20 → 405.99 rebound retraced only 0.485 of the preceding decline — classify_pullback reads fourth_wave_like, i.e. the decline is more likely ongoing than finished.
• Top target. First the 343–349 confluence shelf (Ⓒ = 0.618 × Ⓐ at 343.23, the Primary ④ low 344.79, the 0.382 retracement of Cycle III at 348.95 and the Primary Ⓐ 2–4 channel line at 344.63); then 288.87, where Intermediate (3) = 1.0 × (1) meets the Cycle IV Ⓒ-termination line in November 2026.
• Biggest risk. The June low is an unusually good structural low: 349.20 is 0.382 of the entire Cycle III advance (348.95 computed) and sits inside the Primary ④ range, and both RSI_14 and UO printed bullish divergences there. A daily close back above 405.99 — and certainly above 466.32 — flips the read to the bullish alternate.
• Confidence. The primary count passes the mechanical gate (valid = true); guideline score 0.847, Fibonacci 0.572, indicator 0.450 → calibrated confidence 0.679, and 39% of the probability mass. It is a plurality, not a consensus: 31% + 30% of the weight says the 349.20 low holds. Treat 349.20 and 405.99 as the two switches.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Current wave: Intermediate (3) of Primary Ⓒ of Cycle IV — Intermediate degree, direction down, in progress since 16 July 2026 at 405.99.

Confidence rationale

The count was gated mechanically with validate_count.py against the daily file: valid = true — R1 (wave 2 not beyond the start of wave 1) true, R2 (wave 3 never the shortest) true, R3 (wave 4 not beyond the end of wave 1) true. 33 pattern-rule, 47 subdivision and 43 pivot checks run mechanically by validate_count.py; 5 item(s) left to analyst judgment (pass: null). There are no near-miss caveats (near_miss_caveats is empty), and every completed leg passed verify_pivot_extreme.

The five judgment items returned as pass: null are resolved explicitly: (a) not_all_of_1_3_5_extended on Cycle III, Primary ③, Primary ⑤, Primary Ⓐ and Intermediate (3) — in each case exactly one sub-wave carries extended_wave ("3"), so the rule holds; (b) the two generic corrective children (Cycle II, and Intermediate (4) of Primary ③ — the 2022 bear market) sit in legal corrective positions (impulse W2 / W4), neither is a triangle, and their internal pattern is deliberately not asserted. One further scrutiny item is worth stating: Primary Ⓐ's Wave (2) retraced 0.973 of Wave (1) — legal (it stayed below 555.45 by 1.73 points) but unusually deep, and it is why the October-2025 double top reads as a wave 2 rather than a new high.

Scores (all computed, never eyeballed): guideline 0.8471 (weighted checklist below), Fibonacci 0.5715, indicator 0.4500; blended with weights {"guideline": 0.5, "fib": 0.25, "indicator": 0.25} → raw 0.6789, calibrated 0.6789. caps_applied is empty: the nesting_unverified flag is set — Intermediate (1) of Primary Ⓒ, Cycle I, Cycle II and three Intermediate legs of Primary ③ are carried without a verified five-wave decomposition — but its 0.75 cap does not bind at a confidence of 0.679.

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Sub-wave structure (1-hour)

Minor 2 retraced 0.831 of Minor 1 — deep, but legal (403.18 stayed below 405.99). Minor 3 is in progress; the 377.39/377.40 low of 23 July is its extreme so far, and the 24 July session closed at 381.74 inside a small bounce. On the 30-minute file the same leg reads as five Minuette swings, the last of which (24 July, 386.03 → 381.42) is unfinished.

Fibonacci targets and supports

Data note. The final daily bar (24 July 2026) arrived with an empty Close and empty indicator fields — a partial session. It was repaired, not dropped: Close was set to 381.74, the true last print carried by the 1-hour file (24 July, 15:30), and SMA_18/50/100/200, RSI_14 and UO were recomputed for that bar only (the recomputation reproduces the vendor values exactly on the three preceding bars). All prices, pivots, scores and channels in this report use that repaired daily series.

Indicator readings — current

Daily: RSI_14 44.8, UO 46.7, volume 27.6 M; price 381.74 below SMA_50 399.18, SMA_100 398.95 and SMA_200 436.12. Weekly: RSI_14 41.9, UO 48.8, close 381.70 below SMA_50 446.50 and below SMA_200 389.87. Monthly: RSI_14 44.9, UO 39.8 — the monthly close is still above its SMA_50 (379.83). 1-hour: RSI_14 36.4, UO 34.7, both falling into the close and below their mid-lines; 30-minute RSI_14 39.7, UO 34.8. The intraday picture is weak but not yet oversold, which is consistent with a third wave that still has room.

Guideline checklist (weighted) — guideline_score = 0.8471

Fibonacci confluence detail — fib_score = 0.5715

Indicator confluence checklist — indicator_score = 0.4500

The mechanical rsi_w3_overbought test is written for an up-impulse and is marked not applicable to this down-impulse; its down-side analogue (RSI oversold at the wave-3 low) is scored instead. SMA(18) is deliberately absent from every checklist above.

Wave-pivot indicator table

Two readings matter most. First, at the 30 March 2026 low (356.28) RSI fell to 24.8 and UO to 20.2 — no bullish divergence against the 24 February low, which is why Primary Ⓐ's wave (5) does not look like a final low for the whole correction. Second, at the 25 June 2026 low (349.20) RSI printed 28.7 and UO 30.0 — higher than at 356.28 while price was lower: a clear bullish divergence, and the single strongest piece of evidence for the bullish alternate. The 26 June session then traded 186.2 M shares (4.3× the 20-day average), a capitulation-scale print.

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Precision layer signals (1-hour / 30-minute)

Alignment narrative

All five timeframes point the same way, which is the highest-confidence configuration for the primary count: monthly and weekly are corrective and below their long moving averages, the daily is in a third wave of a C-wave, and both intraday layers are trending down under their own SMA_50. There is no cross-timeframe conflict to flag — the 1-hour and 30-minute counts nest cleanly inside daily Intermediate (3), and no lower-degree wave exceeds its parent's boundary. The honest caveat is not a conflict but a proximity: the whole alignment is only 32.5 points (8.5%) above 349.20, and the intraday oscillators are already in the lower half of their range, so the alignment can invert quickly if 405.99 is recovered. The monthly file adds the macro frame: Cycle IV has so far retraced 0.3815 of Cycle III — within a hair of the classic 0.382 fourth-wave retracement — which is exactly why the bullish alternate deserves 31% rather than a footnote.

7 · Waves — 1-Hour

8 · Waves — Daily

9 · Waves — Weekly

10 · Disclaimer