Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $1,132.33 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Micron has completed a spectacular extended fifth wave - a ~20x parabolic advance from $61.54 (Apr 2025) to an all-time high of $1,255.00 (25 Jun 2026). The structure is a valid five-wave impulse (W3 the longest, W5 extended). At all-time highs with a parabolic slope, blow-off/exhaustion risk is high; the favoured next move is a sharp Intermediate correction. The advance is voided only below $311.49.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Blow-off top, sharp correction
Bearish
Intermediate (A)-(B)-(C) down
$1,032 (23.6%)
$895 (38.2%)
$750
$1,255 (for the top); $311.49 (structure)
50%
Final (5) extension higher
Bullish
(5) extension up
$1,300
$1,350
$1,450
$311.49
35%
Deeper correction to 670
Bearish
(C) extended down
$895
$780
$670 (61.8%)
$311.49
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are not below it and the highs are above it; price is far above the rising SMA-200 ($425.84) - an extreme extension. This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Completing (or just completed) an extended Intermediate (5) of a Primary impulse; ATH $1,255.00, a ~20x parabolic move since April 2025.
Key signal: Price is hugely extended above a rising SMA-200 ($425.84) with RSI ~59 - the parabola plus the mature five-wave count flag exhaustion risk.
Top target: If the top is in, an Intermediate correction targets $895-$1,032 first, then potentially $750; a final spike could still tag $1,300-$1,450.
Biggest risk: Parabolas can extend further than expected - shorting a runaway fifth is dangerous; equally, the eventual correction can be violent.
Confidence: Medium - the five-wave count is clean and rule-compliant, but timing the exact top of a parabolic fifth is inherently low-precision.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Micron has staged one of the sharpest advances in its history: a five-wave Primary impulse from $61.54 (7 Apr 2025) to an all-time high of $1,255.00 (25 Jun 2026). Wave (3) ran into $471.34 (Mar 2026), wave (4) corrected to $311.49, and wave (5) extended parabolically to the ATH. The current direction is up but extremely extended; the favoured read is that this extended fifth wave is completing, setting up a sharp Intermediate-degree correction. Only a break below $311.49 voids the impulse.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary impulse (active)
In progress - five waves up from $61.54
Intermediate (3) high
$471.34 (Mar 2026)
Intermediate (4) low
$311.49 (Mar 2026)
Intermediate (5) (current)
Extended, parabolic - ATH $1,255.00
Next move (expected)
Sharp Intermediate correction
Confidence rationale: The advance is a clean, rule-compliant five-wave impulse: wave (3) is the longest, wave (4) holds well above wave (1), and wave (5) extended. The parabolic slope, the all-time-high RSI position, and the extreme distance above the SMA-200 all argue a top is near. Counter-evidence: parabolic fifths can extend further than any target, so a final spike is entirely possible before the reversal.
Alternate count (35%): the fifth wave is sub-dividing and a further extension to $1,300-$1,450 occurs before the top; this is a bullish variation that does not change the eventual outcome (a large correction). Invalidation of the whole bullish impulse: a daily close below $311.49.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is an extended Intermediate (5). Given the parabolic slope, risk is two-sided: a final spike toward $1,300-$1,450 or an immediate sharp reversal. A loss of the rising short-term averages would be the first sign the top is in.
Item
Reading
Wave (1)
$68.31 ($61.54 -> $129.85)
Wave (3)
$367.96 ($103.38 -> $471.34) - longest leg
Wave (5) (extended)
$943.51 ($311.49 -> $1,255.00)
Retrace targets (of wave 5)
23.6% $1,032 / 38.2% $895 / 61.8% $672
Invalidation-down
$311.49 (wave (4) low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Wave (1) start
2025-04-07
$61.54
oversold
low
high
Launch of the advance
Wave (3) high
2026-03-18
$471.34
overbought
high
high
Longest impulse leg
Wave (4) low
2026-03-31
$311.49
~45
~45
contracting
Healthy 4th-wave dip
Wave (5)/ATH
2026-06-25
$1,255.00
~60
~55
spike
Parabolic all-time high
Current bar
2026-06-26
$1,132.33
59.0
54.8
-
Extended; first pullback from the ATH
Invalidation: a daily close below $311.49 voids the bullish impulse entirely; nearer term, a loss of the rising short-term averages signals the parabolic top is in.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary impulse up
Up
Bullish (extended)
$895 / $672
$1,255 (ATH)
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5) extended
Up
Bullish (exhausting)
$991 / $895
$1,255 / $1,350
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Blow-off / first pullback
Down
Neutral
$991.10
$1,255.00
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro pullback
Down
Neutral
$1,121.56
$1,255.00
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Reversal short (top-pick, risky)
$1,210-$1,255 stall
$1,032 / $895
$1,275
1h reversal + daily close < $991.10
Pullback long (with trend, risky)
$1,000-$1,030 hold
$1,255 / $1,350
$890
1h higher low + close > $1,213
Alignment narrative: The trend is powerfully up but at a parabolic extreme; intraday shows the first pullback from the ATH. While price holds the rising short-term averages, the fifth wave can still extend; a daily close below $991 would be the first evidence the top is in and a correction underway.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Wave (5) sub-advance - up
2026-05-20 09:30
2026-06-25 09:30
$700.66
$1,255.00
Pullback - down
2026-06-09 09:30
2026-06-09 12:30
$989.15
$854.35
Advance - up
2026-06-09 12:30
2026-06-25 09:30
$854.35
$1,255.00
Pullback (in progress) - down
2026-06-25 09:30
-
$1,255.00
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-25
$61.54
$1,255.00
Intermediate (1) - up
2025-04-07
2025-06-26
$61.54
$129.85
Intermediate (2) - down
2025-06-26
2025-08-01
$129.85
$103.38
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-08-01
2026-03-18
$103.38
$471.34
Intermediate (4) - down
2026-03-18
2026-03-31
$471.34
$311.49
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-03-31
2026-06-25
$311.49
$1,255.00
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse (off 2022/2025 lows) - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-25
$61.54
$1,255.00
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-08-01
2026-03-18
$103.38
$471.34
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-03-31
2026-06-25
$311.49
$1,255.00
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.