Nebius Group N.V., NBIS, NL0009805522, NASDAQ, USD
Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $240.30 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Nebius has staged a parabolic advance from $18.31 (Apr 2025) to a fresh all-time high of $299.86 (22 Jun 2026) - a ~16x move in 14 months. The count reads as an extended Intermediate (5) of a Primary impulse; price is far above a rising SMA-200 ($129.85) and has just pulled back from the high. Exhaustion risk is elevated; the structure is void only below $73.52. (Short listing history - macro context limited.)
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Pullback then higher (extended 5)
Bullish
(5) extension up
$280
$300
$320
$73.52
45%
Blow-off top, sharp correction
Bearish
Intermediate (A)-(B)-(C) down
$246 (23.6%)
$213 (38.2%)
$160
$299.86 (for the top)
40%
Deeper correction to 130
Bearish
(C) extended down
$213
$187
$130
$299.86
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are not below it though the highs are not above the latest peak; price is far above the rising SMA-200 ($129.85). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Completing (or just completed) an extended Intermediate (5) of a Primary impulse; ATH $299.86, a ~16x parabolic move since April 2025.
Key signal: Price is hugely extended above a rising SMA-200 ($129.85) with RSI ~50 after the pullback - the parabola flags exhaustion risk.
Top target: A final spike can tag $300-$320; if the top is in, a correction targets $213-$246 first, then potentially $160.
Biggest risk: Parabolas can extend or reverse violently - both shorting and chasing are high-risk; the eventual correction can be sharp.
Confidence: Lower than typical - a short listing history and a vertical fifth wave make precise wave-degree and timing calls difficult.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Nebius has staged one of the sharpest advances in the market: from $18.31 (7 Apr 2025) to a fresh all-time high of $299.86 (22 Jun 2026). After an Intermediate (4) low at $73.52 (Feb 2026), wave (5) extended parabolically into the high. The current direction is up but extremely extended; the favoured read is that this extended fifth is completing or just completed, with a sharp correction the likely next move. The structure is void only below $73.52. Note the short listing history limits macro context.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary impulse (active)
In progress - five waves up from $18.31
Intermediate (4) low
$73.52 (Feb 2026)
Intermediate (5) (current)
Extended, parabolic - ATH $299.86
Momentum
RSI ~50 after the pullback
Next move (expected)
Sharp correction or final spike
Confidence rationale: The advance is a clean impulsive five from $18.31 with a parabolic fifth; price far above a rising SMA-200 confirms the trend's power but also its extension. Counter-evidence: parabolic fifths can extend beyond any target, and the short history limits confidence in the exact degree - so timing the top is low-precision.
Alternate count (45%): the fifth wave sub-divides and a further extension to $320+ occurs before the top; a bullish variation that does not change the eventual large correction. Invalidation of the bullish impulse: a daily close below $73.52.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is an extended Intermediate (5), now in a pullback from $299.86. Risk is two-sided: a final spike to $300-$320 or an immediate sharp reversal. A loss of the rising short-term averages would be the first sign the top is in.
Item
Reading
Wave (5) leg
$226.34 ($73.52 -> $299.86)
Retrace targets (of wave 5)
23.6% $246.44 / 38.2% $213.40 / 50% $186.69
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$129.85 (rising)
Final-spike targets
$300 -> $320
Invalidation-down
$73.52 (Feb 2026 (4) low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary low
2025-04-07
$18.31
oversold
low
high
Launch of the advance
Intermediate (4) low
2026-02-05
$73.52
~45
~45
contracting
Healthy 4th-wave dip
Interim high
2026-03-16
$132.30
~65
~60
steady
Mid-fifth high
Wave (5)/ATH
2026-06-22
$299.86
~60
~55
spike
Parabolic all-time high
Current bar
2026-06-26
$240.30
50.5
42.5
-
Pullback from the ATH; extended
Invalidation: a daily close below $73.52 voids the bullish impulse; nearer term, a loss of the rising short-term averages signals the parabolic top is in.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary impulse up
Up
Bullish (extended)
$213 / $160
$299.86 (ATH)
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5) extended
Up
Bullish (exhausting)
$205 / $187
$300 / $320
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Blow-off / first pullback
Down
Neutral
$200.34
$299.86
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro pullback
Down
Neutral
$234.40
$299.86
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Reversal short (top-pick, risky)
$290-$300 stall
$246 / $213
$305
1h reversal + daily close < $200
Pullback long (with trend, risky)
$205-$215 hold
$300 / $320
$185
1h higher low + close > $265
Alignment narrative: The trend is powerfully up but at a parabolic extreme; intraday shows the first pullback from the ATH. While price holds the rising short-term averages, the fifth can still extend; a daily close below $200 would be the first evidence a correction is underway.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Wave (5) sub-advance - up
2026-04-28 10:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$132.70
$299.86
Pullback - down
2026-06-04 15:30
2026-06-09 12:30
$264.47
$200.34
Advance - up
2026-06-09 12:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$200.34
$299.86
Pullback (in progress) - down
2026-06-22 09:30
-
$299.86
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-22
$18.31
$299.86
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-04-07
2025-10-10
$18.31
$141.10
Intermediate (4) - down
2025-10-10
2026-02-05
$141.10
$73.52
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-02-05
2026-06-22
$73.52
$299.86
Pullback from ATH - down (in progress)
2026-06-22
-
$299.86
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary impulse (off 2024/2025 low) - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-22
$18.31
$299.86
Intermediate (4) - down
2025-10-10
2026-02-05
$141.10
$73.52
Intermediate (5) - up (extended)
2026-02-05
2026-06-22
$73.52
$299.86
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.