Last close: $68.89 (23 July 2026). Primary count: Cycle wave III is underway — Primary ① topped at the 134.12 all-time high, Primary ② is a zigzag now correcting into the 50–61 confluence zone (a bullish RSI divergence is already forming near 65), and Primary ③ up toward 163–210 should follow. The bearish reframe (the top is in at 134.12) stays live below 48.50.
| Scenario | Dir. | Next wave (degree) | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary — Cycle III up ② completes, then ③ to new highs | Bull | Primary ② low (Primary) → Primary ③ up; ③ targets 163 / 181 / 210 | 61.29 | 54.70 | 49.84 | weakens < 48.50; voids < 16.27 | 51% |
| Bear — the top is in 134.12 = major Cycle top | Bear | Cycle-degree correction down (Cycle) | 48.50 | 40.00 | 34.47 | voids > 134.12 | 28% |
| Deeper ② first ② extends before ③ | Bull (lower first) | Primary ② extension to the C=A shelf, then Primary ③ up (Primary) | 49.84 | 45.00 | 41.49 | voids < 16.27 | 21% |
Probabilities are the normalized calibrated confidences across the mutually-exclusive counts (guideline 0.82 / fib 0.53 / indicator 0.16 → blended confidence 0.58; nesting_unverified flag noted, non-binding). Honest estimates, not guarantees.
Base channel & trigger: not yet active. The bull continuation trigger is a daily close above the prior major high 134.12 together with an escape of the 2025–26 down-channel; price (68.89) is far below, so the base projection is conditional.
Base projection (conditional — anchor low ≈ 58, breakout shelf 134.12): 1.382 → 163.2, 1.618 → 181.2, 2.0 → 210.2. These enter the Primary ③ target menu only once the trigger fires.
| Leg | Direction | Target zone | Date window | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary ② (C down) — active | Down | 49.84 – 61.29 | Aug – Nov 2026 | 0.618 retrace of ① (61.29); C=A (49.84); zigzag C-termination channel (~55 by Oct) |
| Primary ③ (up) | Up | 163.2 – 210.2 | 2027 | 1.382–2.0 × base range; impulse-channel upper (via-3) ~167 into 2027; new all-time high |
Forward grid (pre-mapped Primary ④ pullback of a projected 58→178 leg): 0.382 → 132.2, 0.5 → 118.0, 0.618 → 103.8. No prior NFLX.roadmap.json existed, so there is no previous roadmap to grade.
Current wave: Primary ② (Primary degree), direction down, in progress, a corrective zigzag that began at the 134.12 all-time high on 30 Jun 2025. It nests inside Cycle wave III (up, in progress from the 2022 low of 16.27), which in turn sits within the post-2002 Supercycle advance. The active sub-wave is Minute wave 5 of Intermediate (C), probing the 65 area.
| Degree hierarchy | Supercycle (I) ▸ Cycle III ▸ Primary ② ▸ Intermediate (C) ▸ Minute 5 |
| Degree | Wave | Status | Direction | From → To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supercycle | (I) | in progress | Up | 0.03 (2002) → — |
| Cycle | III | in progress | Up | 16.27 (2022) → — |
| Primary | ② | in progress | Down | 134.12 (Jun 2025) → ~65 |
| Intermediate | (C) | in progress | Down | 108.95 (Apr 2026) → 65.08 |
| Minute | 5 | in progress (current) | Down | 78.44 (Jul 2) → 65.08 |
Confidence rationale. The count passes the mechanical gate (validate_count.py: valid = true; R1/R2/R3 all pass; all 17 pivot-extreme checks OK; no near-misses). Guideline score 0.82, blended/calibrated confidence 0.58. The indicator score is low (0.16) because the 134.12 top carried no bearish divergence and the Intermediate (1) pivot printed an earnings-spike volume — mechanically weak for a "completing impulse," but consistent with a wave-one (not terminal) top.
| Item | Reading |
|---|---|
| Active wave | Primary ② (down) — Intermediate (C) — Minute 5 |
| (C) sub-wave count | Minute i (108.95→85.10) · ii (→91.48) · iii (→70.86) · iv (→78.44) · v (→65.08, in progress) |
| ② completion zone | 50 – 61 (0.618 retrace of ① = 61.29; C=A = 49.84; zigzag channel ≈ 55 by Oct) |
| Primary ③ targets (next up) | T1 163.2 · T2 181.2 · T3 210.2 |
| Invalidation | Bull weakens < 48.50; Cycle III voids < 16.27; bearish reframe voids > 134.12 |
Primary ① is a textbook extended-third impulse: (1) 32.23 pts, (3) 71.98 pts (extended), (5) 52.01 pts — and (5)/(1) = 1.61, a clean Fibonacci equality-substitute (fib sub-score 0.97). Primary ② is a zigzag: wave (B) retraced 57.4% of (A) (a normal zigzag B), and wave (C) has travelled 0.74× (A) so far, heading for the C=A objective at 49.84. The 58.6% retrace of Primary ① classifies as ambiguous (between 0.5 and 0.618).
| Pivot | Date | Close | Volume | RSI_14 | UO | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle II low | 2022-05-12 | 17.43 | 176.6M | 26.4 | 41.1 | oversold bottom |
| Int (1) top | 2023-07-19 | 47.76 | 210.0M | 74.7 | 63.6 | earnings-spike volume |
| Int (2) low | 2023-10-18 | 34.62 | 114.3M | 27.4 | 27.3 | oversold |
| Int (3) top | 2025-02-14 | 105.86 | 31.5M | 75.6 | 64.4 | strong momentum |
| Int (4) low | 2025-04-07 | 86.78 | 66.6M | 37.1 | 44.8 | healthy dip |
| Int (5)/① top | 2025-06-30 | 133.91 | 32.8M | 78.8 | 67.2 | no bearish divergence (RSI > (3)) |
| Int (A) low | 2026-02-23 | 76.02 | 38.4M | 31.9 | 44.6 | wave-A washout |
| Int (B) top | 2026-04-16 | 107.79 | 64.9M | 79.1 | 72.4 | overbought B-trap |
| Minute iii (C) | 2026-06-25 | 70.90 | 44.6M | 19.1 | 26.8 | deeply oversold |
| Minute v low | 2026-07-17 | 68.95 | 142.0M | 30.7 | 44.7 | bullish divergence vs iii |
| Last close | 2026-07-23 | 68.89 | 45.0M | 33.7 | 45.4 | lifting off lows |
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Weekly / Monthly | Cycle III (Primary ②) | Corrective down | Bullish (larger) | 50 – 61 | 108.95 / 134.12 | ✓ |
| Primary | Daily | Primary ② — Int (C) | Down | Bearish (near-term) | 61 / 50 | 78.44 / 91.48 | ✓ |
| Intraday | 1-Hour | Minute 5 of (C) | Down, ending | Turning | 65.08 | 70.57 / 78.44 | ✓ |
| Micro | 30-Minute | Minuette of Minute 5 | Basing | Turning | 65.08 / 66.69 | 70.57 | ✓ |
Alignment narrative. All layers agree on direction: a near-complete corrective decline nested inside a larger bull trend. The daily/weekly bias is a completing Primary ②; the intraday layers show Minute 5 of wave (C) with a bullish momentum divergence — i.e. an intraday correction that is close to exhausting. This is the classic "wait-for-confirmation long" set-up: bearish until Primary ② confirms its low, then aligned bullish for Primary ③.
| Setup | Entry zone | Targets | Stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary long (③) | On ② low 50–61, then reclaim of 70.57 → 78.44 | 91.5 → 108.95 → 134.12 → 163+ | Daily close < 48.50 (thesis); intraday < last ② low | Impulsive 1-hour rally + higher-low above 65.08 |
| Near-term caution | — | ② targets 61 / 55 / 50 | — | Stay defensive until 5 of (C) confirms its low |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minute i (of (C)) | 2026-04-16 11:30 | 2026-05-11 15:30 | 108.94 | 85.10 |
| Minute ii | 2026-05-11 15:30 | 2026-05-19 09:30 | 85.10 | 91.48 |
| Minute iii | 2026-05-19 09:30 | 2026-06-25 15:30 | 91.48 | 70.86 |
| Minute iv | 2026-06-25 15:30 | 2026-07-02 13:30 | 70.86 | 78.44 |
| Minute v (current) | 2026-07-02 13:30 | — | 78.44 | 65.08 |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate (1) | 2022-05-12 | 2023-07-19 | 16.27 | 48.50 |
| Intermediate (2) | 2023-07-19 | 2023-10-18 | 48.50 | 34.47 |
| Intermediate (3) | 2023-10-18 | 2025-02-14 | 34.47 | 106.45 |
| Intermediate (4) | 2025-02-14 | 2025-04-07 | 106.45 | 82.11 |
| Intermediate (5) | 2025-04-07 | 2025-06-30 | 82.11 | 134.12 |
| Intermediate (A) | 2025-06-30 | 2026-02-23 | 134.12 | 75.01 |
| Intermediate (B) | 2026-02-23 | 2026-04-16 | 75.01 | 108.95 |
| Intermediate (C) (current) | 2026-04-16 | — | 108.95 | 65.08 |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle I | 2002-10-10 | 2021-11-17 | 0.03 | 70.10 |
| Cycle II | 2021-11-17 | 2022-05-12 | 70.10 | 16.27 |
| Cycle III (current) | 2022-05-12 | — | 16.27 | — |
| Primary ① (of III) | 2022-05-12 | 2025-06-30 | 16.27 | 134.12 |
| Primary ② (of III, current) | 2025-06-30 | — | 134.12 | 65.08 |