Last close: €43.00 (24 July 2026, daily close). Cycle III is under way from the 30.235 low of March 2026; the first Intermediate wave topped at €45.20 on 16 July and an Intermediate (2) correction toward €39.5–€37.7 is the primary read (40%), with €30.235 the level that would void the whole bullish count.
| # | Scenario | Direction | Next expected wave (degree) | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A — Intermediate (2) correction, then Intermediate (3) Primary count: Cycle III intact, first Intermediate wave complete at 45.20 | Down near-term, up thereafter | Intermediate (2) down — Minor c of a zigzag | €39.48 0.382 | €37.72 0.500 | €35.95 0.618 | Daily close > €45.20 (folds into Scenario B); €30.235 voids Cycle III | 40% |
| 2 | B — Minor 3 of Intermediate (1) still extending Mandatory degree-reframe: 45.20 was only Minute (i) of Minor 3 | Up | Minute (iii) of Minor 3 up | €46.97 1.0 × Minor 1 | €50.79 Minor upper parallel, 18-Sep | €54.06 1.618 × Minor 1 | Daily close < €35.505 (Minor 2 low) | 32% |
| 3 | C — Cycle II incomplete; a final Primary Ⓩ still to come The 2026 advance is an X-wave inside a triple-zigzag Cycle II | Down | Primary Ⓩ down (Cycle-degree correction) | €35.95 0.618 of the 2026 advance | €30.24 March low | €24.55 0.5 × Primary Ⓨ from 45.20 | Weekly close > €54.87 (Jan-2026 high) | 28% |
Step 0 · Base channel & trigger. Base channel = the Minor 2-4 baseline
(32.66 on 24-Apr-2026 → 35.505 on 9-Jun-2026) with the upper parallel drawn through the Minor 3 top (41.70,
6-May-2026). Boundary values: 40.64 / 48.94 at 31-Aug, 42.49 / 50.79 at 30-Sep, 48.18 / 56.48 at 31-Dec.
Trigger status: NOT fired — channel_breakout (2-bar confirmation) finds no confirmed close
beyond the upper parallel, and the last close (€43.00) is below the €54.87 breakout shelf.
Step 1 · Retracement grid of the completed advance (Intermediate (1), 30.235 → 45.20): 0.236 = €41.67 (already tagged at the 41.34 low), 0.382 = €39.48, 0.500 = €37.72, 0.618 = €35.95.
Step 2 · Base projection — anchor low €30.235, breakout shelf €54.87 (range 24.635). Inactive: these enter the target menu only on a weekly close above €54.87.
| Level | Price | Activation |
|---|---|---|
| 1.382 × base range | €64.28 | conditional — trigger not yet fired |
| 1.618 × base range | €70.09 | conditional — trigger not yet fired |
| 2.0 × base range | €79.50 | conditional — trigger not yet fired |
Step 3 · Forward retracement grid of the projected (3) leg 37.72 → 61.93 — the pullback zone mapped before the leg happens:
| Retracement | Price |
|---|---|
| 0.382 | €52.68 |
| 0.500 | €49.83 |
| 0.618 | €46.97 |
Step 4 · Dated path with price-time boxes. The 39.48 level and the
rising Minor 2-4 baseline coincide between 8 and 17 August 2026 (fib_line_confluence) —
the highest-confidence location for the Intermediate (2) low.
| Leg | Direction | Target zone | Date window | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2) | down | €37.72 – €39.48 | 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-09 | 0.382-0.5 retracement of Intermediate (1); channel x fib confluence with the rising Minor 2-4 baseline 8-17 Aug 2026 at 39.48 |
| (3) first thrust | up | €46.97 – €50.79 | 2026-10-15 → 2026-12-31 | 1.0 x Intermediate (1) from the (2) low; Minor upper parallel 50.05 (18-Sep) -> 56.48 (31-Dec) |
| (3) | up | €60.42 – €63.45 | 2027-02-01 → 2027-06-30 | 1.618 x Intermediate (1) measured from a 36.21-39.24 (2) low |
Previous roadmap: none — no NOV.roadmap.json existed
before this run, so there is nothing to grade. (The 9-Jul-2026 HTML report, which had Minor 5 of
Intermediate (1) in progress and targeted the €43.2/€45.5 inverse-Wave-4 band, is superseded: that band was
reached exactly, price topping at €45.20 on 16-Jul-2026.)
sma18_signals on the weekly bundle —
the daily bundle's moving-average column stops on 30-Jun-2026, the weekly series is complete to 20-Jul-2026:
trend direction rising (SMA18 = 38.12); the lows of the last two weekly bars are not below
SMA(18); the highs of the last two weekly bars are above SMA(18). The daily series through 30-Jun
agreed (rising, SMA18 = 39.17).indicator_score = 1.00).extension_fragile because Minor 5 (9.695) marginally exceeds Minor 3 (9.04), the rarer
extended-fifth placement. The gate passes cleanly (27 pattern-rule, 36 subdivision and 40 pivot checks,
no failures, no near-miss caveats).| Active wave | Intermediate (2) — corrective (zigzag), down |
| Degree / parent | Intermediate, inside Primary ① of Cycle III |
| Started | 16 July 2026 at €45.20 (16:00 hourly bar) |
| Progress | Minor a complete 45.20 → 41.34 (23-Jul-2026); Minor b bouncing, €43.57 swing high,
€43.00 last. Retracement of Intermediate (1) so far: 0.258 (classify_pullback →
fourth_wave_like). |
| Last completed wave | Intermediate (1), 27-Mar-2026 €30.235 → 16-Jul-2026 €45.20 (+14.965 pts, +49.5%), extended fifth |
| Key support | €41.34 → €39.48 → €37.72 → €35.95; structural floor €30.235 |
| Key resistance | €43.57 → €45.20 (Intermediate (1) high) → €50.05 (Minor upper parallel, Sep) → €54.87 |
| Degree | Label | Direction | Status | Start | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supercycle | (I) | up | in progress | 2002-08-06 @ €1.135 | — |
| Cycle | III | up | in progress | 2026-03-27 @ €30.235 | — |
| Primary | ① | up | in progress | 2026-03-27 @ €30.235 | — |
| Intermediate | (2) | down | in progress — current | 2026-07-16 @ €45.20 | — |
| Minor | b | up | in progress | 2026-07-23 @ €41.34 | — |
| Minute | (b) of b | up | in progress | 2026-07-24 @ €42.165 | — |
validate_count.py returned valid: true for the primary tree —
R1 (wave 2 not beyond the start of wave 1), R2 (wave 3 not the shortest) and R3 (wave 4 not beyond the end of
wave 1) all pass, across 27 pattern-rule, 36 subdivision and 40 pivot-extreme checks, with an empty
near_miss_caveats list. Six items were returned pass: null for analyst resolution:
(i) four not_all_of_1_3_5_extended items — resolved, exactly one sub-wave is labelled extended in each
impulse; (ii) pitfall_wave4_retrace_gt_50pct_w3 on Intermediate (1) — Minor 4 retraced 68.5% of Minor 3
and its 35.505 low cleared the Minor 1 end (35.39) by 0.115 pts, 1.27% of Minor 3: verified against the daily
bars, a tight but genuine R3 pass, and the single most fragile joint in the count; (iii) the generic
corrective child types in wave-2/wave-4 positions — accepted, the sub-degree detail of those
corrections is below the resolution this report claims.
Scores: guideline_score 0.6818 (15.0 of 22.0 weighted points —
the misses are the extended-fifth placement, wave 4 not being a flat/triangle, the channel-line target and the
Fibonacci proportion of the extended fifth), fib_score 0.5357, indicator_score
1.00. Blended raw confidence 0.7248, calibrated to 0.70 by the extension_fragile cap
(0.70): Minor 5 (9.695) exceeds Minor 3 (9.04), the rarer extension placement, which the skill explicitly
down-weights. Weights used: guideline 0.50 / fib 0.25 / indicator 0.25.
Minor 3 of Intermediate (1) still extending (mandatory degree-reframe) — 32%. The degree-reframe of the 'Intermediate (1) complete' call: the advance is Minor 1 (30.235-41.70), Minor 2 (to 35.505, a textbook 0.540 retracement) and an extending Minor 3 from 35.505, with the 45.20-41.34 dip only Minute (ii). classify_pullback rates the current 0.258 retracement 'fourth_wave_like', which favours an ongoing impulse; against it, the 45.20 high carried falling volume (212,647 vs 1,067,575 at the 41.70 high) and an RSI bearish divergence (66.5 vs 71.3) - third-wave behaviour is absent, which is why indicator confluence collapses to 0.267 for this count. Targets 46.97 / 50.79 / 54.06; invalidated below 35.505.
Second alternate — 28%. Cycle II is not finished: the 30.235 → 45.20 advance is Primary Ⓧ2 inside a triple-zigzag Cycle II (its 0.362 retracement of Primary Ⓨ sits right at the 0.382 X-wave norm), with a final Primary Ⓩ still to come toward €30.24 and, in the extreme, the 0.854/0.886 retracements of Cycle I near €21/€18. Invalidated by a weekly close above €54.87.
| Wave | Intermediate (2), corrective zigzag, down — in progress |
| Span so far | 16-Jul-2026 €45.20 → 23-Jul-2026 €41.34 (Minor a), bouncing to €43.57 / €43.00 |
| Sub-waves done | Minor a (five hourly waves: 45.20 → 44.21 → 44.945 → 43.50 → 44.19 → 41.34) |
| Sub-wave in progress | Minor b — 0.577 of Minor a recovered; a Minor c leg is expected |
| Fibonacci supports | €41.67 (0.236, tagged) · €39.48 (0.382) · €37.72 (0.500) · €35.95 (0.618) |
| Channel context | Rising Minor 2-4 baseline: €39.59 (14-Aug) · €40.64 (31-Aug) · €41.75 (18-Sep) · €43.42 (15-Oct). Upper parallel: €48.94 (31-Aug) · €50.05 (18-Sep) |
| Indicators now | Daily RSI 52.1 · Weekly RSI 55.7, UO 67.0 · Hourly RSI 54.7, UO 51.1 · 30-min RSI 58.3, UO 51.0 |
| Invalidation | Daily close above €45.20 (count folds into Scenario B); €30.235 voids Cycle III |
impulse_w5_targets on the completed Intermediate (1) put the
inverse-wave-4 band at €43.16 (1.236 × W4) and €45.53 (1.618 × W4) — the 45.20 top landed inside it, and
0.89 pts (10.7% of channel width) below the Minor 2-4 upper parallel at €46.09. Forward:
Intermediate (3) = 1.0 × (1) → €46.97–€54.21 depending on the (2) low; 1.618 × (1) → €60.42 (from 36.21),
€61.93 (from 37.72), €63.45 (from 39.24).
fib_confluence_score = 0.5357)| Relationship | Measured | Nearest expected | Distance | Sub-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 2 retrace of Minor 1 | 0.5296 | 0.5 | 0.0296 | 0.803 |
| Minor 3 vs Minor 1 | 1.7536 | 1.618 | 0.1356 | 0.096 |
| Minor 4 retrace of Minor 3 | 0.6853 | 0.5 | 0.1853 | 0.000 |
| Minor 5 vs |Minor 4| (inverse-W4) | 1.5650 | 1.618 | 0.0530 | 0.646 |
| Minor 5 vs net(Minor 1->3) (W5-extended) | 0.8456 | 1.0 | 0.1544 | 0.000 |
| Minute ii retrace of Minute i | 0.5863 | 0.618 | 0.0317 | 0.788 |
| Minute iv retrace of Minute iii | 0.2703 | 0.236 | 0.0343 | 0.771 |
| Minute v vs Minute i | 0.7601 | 0.618 | 0.1421 | 0.053 |
| Intermediate (1) retrace of Cycle II | 0.1383 | 0.146 | 0.0077 | 0.948 |
| Cycle II retrace of Cycle I | 0.7881 | 0.786 | 0.0021 | 0.986 |
| Minor 4 low as price proportion of Intermediate (1) | 0.3522 | 0.382 | 0.0298 | 0.801 |
guideline_score = 0.6818)| Guideline | Hedge weight | Satisfied |
|---|---|---|
| W4 almost always a different corrective pattern than W2 | almost always | ✓ |
| W2 usually a zigzag or zigzag combination | usually | ✓ |
| W4 usually a flat, triangle or flat combination | usually | ✗ |
| W5 exceeded W3's end (no truncation) | sometimes | ✓ |
| W5 often ends at/slightly beyond the 2-4 channel parallel through W3 | often | ✗ |
| Centre of W3 has the steepest slope of any equal period | almost always | ✓ |
| One of W1/W3/W5 is usually extended | usually | ✓ |
| Extension usually belongs to W3 (extended-third preferred) | usually | ✗ |
| Rarely do two subwaves extend (only one does) | rarely | ✓ |
| An extended W5 is often in Fibonacci proportion to net(W1->W3) | often | ✗ |
| W4 typically ends within the range of sub-wave four of W3 | typically | ✓ |
| W4 often divides the impulse into Fibonacci proportion (price/time) | often | ✓ |
indicator_score = 1.00)| Check | Weight | Satisfied | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| volume_w3_highest | usually | ✓ | W1 388,877 / W3 1,067,575 / W5 212,647 |
| volume_w5_below_w3 | usually | ✓ | 212,647 vs 1,067,575 |
| rsi_w3_overbought | often | ✓ | RSI 71.3 at the Minor-3 top |
| rsi_w5_bearish_divergence | usually | ✓ | close 45.03 > 39.34 but RSI 66.5 < 71.3 |
| price above SMA_50 and SMA_200 (daily trend context) | usually | ✓ | 43.00 vs SMA_50 38.14 / SMA_200 41.14 |
| Pivot | Date | Price | Volume | RSI_14 | UO | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate (1) start / Cycle III low | 2026-03-27 | €30.235 | 216,698 | 28.8 | 45.9 | Selling exhaustion; UO bullish divergence vs 27.0 at the 5-Feb low |
| Minor 1 top | 2026-04-16 | €35.39 | 388,877 | 58.9 | 55.2 | Healthy opening thrust |
| Minor 2 low | 2026-04-24 | €32.66 | 372,463 | 57.7 | 52.4 | Shallow momentum give-back — no damage |
| Minor 3 top | 2026-05-06 | €41.70 | 1,067,575 | 71.3 | 53.2 | Highest volume of the sequence, RSI > 70 — third-wave confirmation |
| Minor 4 low | 2026-06-09 | €35.505 | 184,081 | 40.9 | 42.0 | Contracting volume, RSI holds the 40s — healthy consolidation |
| Minute i top | 2026-06-17 | €39.36 | 259,920 | 53.8 | 52.5 | — |
| Minute ii low | 2026-06-18 | €37.10 | 212,923 | 48.8 | 50.6 | — |
| Minute iii top | 2026-07-06 | €44.185 | 128,673 | 60.5 | n/a | Daily UO column ends 30-Jun-2026 |
| Minute iv low | 2026-07-14 | €42.27 | 111,789 | 55.2 | n/a | Lightest volume of the leg |
| Minute v / Intermediate (1) top | 2026-07-16 | €45.20 | 212,647 | 66.5 | n/a | RSI bearish divergence (66.5 vs 71.3) on 1/5 of the Minor-3 volume — fifth-wave exhaustion |
| Minor a low | 2026-07-23 | €41.34 | 186,808 | 50.4 | n/a | Expanding volume on the decline — corrective A-wave behaviour |
| Last bar | 2026-07-24 | €43.00 (close) | 119,380 | 52.1 | n/a | Minor b bounce, light volume |
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Cycle III wave 1 (up) | Up | Bullish | €30.24 | €54.87 | ✓ |
| Primary | Weekly | Primary ① / Intermediate (2) | Down (corrective) | Bullish | €39.48 | €45.20 | ✓ |
| Intermediate | Daily | Intermediate (2), Minor b | Up (counter-trend) | Corrective | €41.34 | €45.20 | ✓ |
| Minor | 1-Hour | Minor b of Intermediate (2) | Up | Bounce | €42.165 | €43.57 / €44.59 | ✓ |
| Minute | 30-Minute | Minute (b) of Minor b | Up | Bounce | €42.40 | €43.57 | ✓ |
| Layer | Set-up | Entry zone | Target | Stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Hour | Sell the Minor b bounce (primary count) | €43.60 – €44.60 | €39.48 → €37.72 | Hourly close > €45.20 | Hourly RSI rolling over below 60 with the bounce failing under the 44.59 (15-Jul) shelf |
| 1-Hour | Buy the Intermediate (2) low (primary count) | €39.48 – €37.72 (8 Aug – 9 Oct) | €46.97 → €54.06 | Daily close < €35.505 | Five-wave Minor c into the band with a bullish RSI divergence, then an hourly close back above the Minor 2-4 baseline |
| 30-Minute | Momentum long (Scenario B) | Break and 30-min close > €43.57 | €44.59 → €45.20 | 30-min close < €42.165 | Volume expansion above the 5,600–14,500 recent baseline; UO holding > 50 |
All five layers agree on structure — the disagreement is only about degree. Monthly and weekly are unambiguously in a new upward Cycle-degree sequence (weekly RSI 55.7, UO 67.0, price above the weekly SMA(18) and rising). Daily and below are in a counter-trend phase, which is exactly what an Intermediate (2) looks like. There is no ⚠ cross-timeframe conflict: the hourly bounce nests inside the daily correction, and the daily correction nests inside the weekly advance. The one place to watch is the hourly: a sustained move above €45.20 would mean the daily "correction" was only a Minute (ii), and the count shifts to Scenario B without changing the bullish medium-term conclusion.
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate (1) | 2026-03-27 15:00 | 2026-07-16 16:00 | €30.235 | €45.20 |
| Intermediate (2) | 2026-07-16 16:00 | — | €45.20 | — |
| Minor 4 (of (1)) | 2026-05-06 09:00 | 2026-06-09 15:00 | €41.70 | €35.505 |
| Minor 5 (of (1)) | 2026-06-09 15:00 | 2026-07-16 16:00 | €35.505 | €45.20 |
| Minute i (of 5) | 2026-06-09 15:00 | 2026-06-17 13:00 | €35.505 | €39.36 |
| Minute ii (of 5) | 2026-06-17 13:00 | 2026-06-18 15:00 | €39.36 | €37.10 |
| Minute iii (of 5) | 2026-06-18 15:00 | 2026-07-06 09:00 | €37.10 | €44.185 |
| Minute iv (of 5) | 2026-07-06 09:00 | 2026-07-14 15:00 | €44.185 | €42.27 |
| Minute v (of 5) | 2026-07-14 15:00 | 2026-07-16 16:00 | €42.27 | €45.20 |
| Minor a (of (2)) | 2026-07-16 16:00 | 2026-07-23 09:00 | €45.20 | €41.34 |
| Minor b (of (2)) | 2026-07-23 09:00 | — | €41.34 | — |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle I | 2002-08-06 | 2024-06-26 | €1.135 | €138.48 |
| Cycle II | 2024-06-26 | 2026-03-27 | €138.48 | €30.235 |
| Cycle III | 2026-03-27 | — | €30.235 | — |
| Primary Ⓦ (of II) | 2024-06-26 | 2025-04-17 | €138.48 | €50.47 |
| Primary Ⓧ (of II) | 2025-04-17 | 2025-06-13 | €50.47 | €71.53 |
| Primary Ⓨ (of II) | 2025-06-13 | 2026-03-27 | €71.53 | €30.235 |
| Primary ① (of III) | 2026-03-27 | — | €30.235 | — |
| Intermediate (A) of Ⓦ | 2024-06-26 | 2024-08-05 | €138.48 | €106.00 |
| Intermediate (B) of Ⓦ | 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-03 | €106.00 | €126.24 |
| Intermediate (C) of Ⓦ | 2024-09-03 | 2025-04-17 | €126.24 | €50.47 |
| Minor 1 of (C) | 2024-09-03 | 2024-11-19 | €126.24 | €93.60 |
| Minor 2 of (C) | 2024-11-19 | 2024-12-09 | €93.60 | €106.46 |
| Minor 3 of (C) | 2024-12-09 | 2025-03-12 | €106.46 | €67.10 |
| Minor 4 of (C) | 2025-03-12 | 2025-03-18 | €67.10 | €76.85 |
| Minor 5 of (C) | 2025-03-18 | 2025-04-17 | €76.85 | €50.47 |
| Intermediate (w) of Ⓨ | 2025-06-13 | 2025-08-07 | €71.53 | €38.54 |
| Intermediate (x) of Ⓨ | 2025-08-07 | 2025-09-19 | €38.54 | €53.46 |
| Intermediate (y) of Ⓨ | 2025-09-19 | 2025-11-24 | €53.46 | €35.755 |
| Intermediate (x2) of Ⓨ | 2025-11-24 | 2026-01-23 | €35.755 | €54.87 |
| Intermediate (z) of Ⓨ | 2026-01-23 | 2026-03-27 | €54.87 | €30.235 |
| Minor 1 of (z) | 2026-01-23 | 2026-02-02 | €54.87 | €48.33 |
| Minor 2 of (z) | 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-03 | €48.33 | €50.40 |
| Minor 3 of (z) | 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-05 | €50.40 | €36.55 |
| Minor 4 of (z) | 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-09 | €36.55 | €43.10 |
| Minor 5 of (z) | 2026-02-09 | 2026-03-27 | €43.10 | €30.235 |
| Intermediate (1) of ① | 2026-03-27 | 2026-07-16 | €30.235 | €45.20 |
| Intermediate (2) of ① | 2026-07-16 | — | €45.20 | — |
| Minor 1 of (1) | 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-16 | €30.235 | €35.39 |
| Minor 2 of (1) | 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-24 | €35.39 | €32.66 |
| Minor 3 of (1) | 2026-04-24 | 2026-05-06 | €32.66 | €41.70 |
| Minor 4 of (1) | 2026-05-06 | 2026-06-09 | €41.70 | €35.505 |
| Minor 5 of (1) | 2026-06-09 | 2026-07-16 | €35.505 | €45.20 |
| Minor a of (2) | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-23 | €45.20 | €41.34 |
| Minor b of (2) | 2026-07-23 | — | €41.34 | — |
| Wave | Start | End | Start price | End price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supercycle (I) | 2002-08-06 | — | €1.135 | — |
| Cycle I | 2002-08-06 | 2024-06-26 | €1.135 | €138.48 |
| Cycle II | 2024-06-26 | 2026-03-27 | €138.48 | €30.235 |
| Cycle III | 2026-03-27 | — | €30.235 | — |
| Primary ① (of I) | 2002-08-06 | 2011-03-03 | €1.135 | €9.401 |
| Primary ② (of I) | 2011-03-03 | 2011-08-25 | €9.401 | €6.811 |
| Primary ③ (of I) | 2011-08-25 | 2023-05-19 | €6.811 | €79.71 |
| Primary ④ (of I) | 2023-05-19 | 2023-07-12 | €79.71 | €67.66 |
| Primary ⑤ (of I) | 2023-07-12 | 2024-06-26 | €67.66 | €138.48 |
| Primary Ⓦ (of II) | 2024-06-26 | 2025-04-17 | €138.48 | €50.47 |
| Primary Ⓧ (of II) | 2025-04-17 | 2025-06-13 | €50.47 | €71.53 |
| Primary Ⓨ (of II) | 2025-06-13 | 2026-03-27 | €71.53 | €30.235 |
| Primary ① (of III) | 2026-03-27 | — | €30.235 | — |