Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $98.34 (26 June 2026). Primary count: ServiceNow topped at the $239.62 all-time high (Jan 2025) and has fallen sharply in a Primary-degree decline - wave (A) to $81.24 (Apr 2026), a wave (B) bounce to $139.20 (Jun 2026), and wave (C) pressing back toward the lows ($89.39). Price is far below a falling SMA-200 ($134.53); bias is bearish while under ~$139.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave (C) lower / retest lows
Bearish
(C) Intermediate down
$110 (bounce)
$89
$80
$139.20
50%
Bullish - base, recover
Bullish
Impulse up
$117
$135
$139
$81.24
30%
Deeper new low
Bearish
(C) extended down
$85
$80
$70
$139.20
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is far below the falling SMA-200 ($134.53). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree A-B-C correction off the $239.62 ATH; wave (C) is developing after the (B) high at $139.20.
Key signal: Price is far below a falling SMA-200 ($134.53) with daily RSI ~47; the May-June rally to $139.20 was a counter-trend B-wave that has since failed.
Top target: Bounces toward $110-$117 are sell zones; wave (C) targets a retest of $81.24 and potentially lower.
Biggest risk: A daily close back above $139.20 would negate the immediate bearish case and signal a base.
Confidence: Medium - the corrective downtrend is clear, but the stock is deeply discounted from its highs.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
ServiceNow topped at the all-time high of $239.62 (28 Jan 2025) and fell sharply to $81.24 (10 Apr 2026) as wave (A). The rebound to $139.20 (1 Jun 2026) was a sharp wave (B), and price has since slid back to $89.39 (25 Jun) in wave (C). The current direction is down, with price far below the falling SMA-200; the correction is mature but a confirmed low is not yet in place.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Cycle/Primary top (ATH)
$239.62 (Jan 2025)
Primary correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from $239.62
Intermediate (A)
Complete ($239.62 -> $81.24)
Intermediate (B)
Complete ($81.24 -> $139.20), sharp bounce
Intermediate (C) (current)
In progress - down, retesting the lows
Confidence rationale: The A-B-C shape off the ATH, price far below a falling SMA-200, and a failed B-wave bounce support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: ServiceNow is deeply discounted and a higher low above $81.24 would hint a base, so a bullish alternate carries some weight.
Alternate count (30%): the $81.24 low completed the decline and the rally to $139.20 began a new advance; a higher low followed by a daily close above $139.20 would confirm this. Invalidation of the corrective primary: daily close above $139.20.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (C) down. While price holds below $110-$117 and the SMA-200, the path of least resistance is toward a retest of $81.24; a reclaim of $117-$135 would warn the correction is ending.
Item
Reading
Wave (A) length
$158.38 ($239.62 -> $81.24)
Wave (B) retrace of (A)
36.6% ($81.24 -> $139.20)
Resistance band (of B up-leg)
38.2% $117.06 / 50% $110.22
(C) objective
retest $81.24, potentially lower toward $70-$80
Invalidation-up
$139.20 (B high)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary top (ATH)
2025-01-28
$239.62
overbought
high
-
All-time high
Intermediate (A) low
2026-04-10
$81.24
oversold
low
high
Capitulation low of wave (A)
Intermediate (B) high
2026-06-01
$139.20
~58
~55
spike
Sharp counter-trend bounce
Wave (C) low
2026-06-25
$89.39
~47
~43
elevated
Pressing back toward the lows
Current bar
2026-06-26
$98.34
47.2
42.9
-
Weak bounce below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $139.20 negates the bearish count; a decisive break below $81.24 confirms wave (C) extending lower.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary (C) down
Down
Bearish
$81 / $70
$139
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (C) down
Down
Bearish
$89 / $81
$110 / $135
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$89.39
$107.18
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$89.39
$98.92
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$107-$117 rejection
$89 / $81
$140
1h reversal + daily close < $89.39
Reversal long (counter-trend, risky)
higher low > $89.39
$110 / $117
$81
daily close > $117, then > $139.20
Alignment narrative: All timeframes align bearish/corrective with only intraday bounces against the trend. The bias remains lower while price is below $110-$117 and the SMA-200; only a daily close back above $139.20 would change the structure.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (B) high
2026-06-01 09:30
2026-06-01 09:30
$139.20
$139.20
Down-leg - down
2026-06-01 09:30
2026-06-12 09:30
$139.20
$98.42
Bounce - up
2026-06-12 09:30
2026-06-15 11:30
$98.42
$107.18
Down-leg - down
2026-06-15 11:30
2026-06-25 09:30
$107.18
$89.39
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-25 09:30
-
$89.39
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle/Primary bull - up
2022-10-13
2025-01-28
$67.40
$239.62
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-01-28
-
$239.62
-
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-01-28
2026-04-10
$239.62
$81.24
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-04-10
2026-06-01
$81.24
$139.20
Intermediate (C) - down (in progress)
2026-06-01
-
$139.20
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle/Primary bull (to ATH) - up
2022-10-13
2025-01-28
$67.40
$239.62
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-01-28
2026-04-10
$239.62
$81.24
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-04-10
2026-06-01
$81.24
$139.20
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-01-28
-
$239.62
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.