Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $192.53 (26 June 2026). Primary count: NVIDIA set a fresh all-time high at $236.54 (14 May 2026) and is now pulling back; the decline reads as an Intermediate (4)/Minor correction within a Primary bull, with price sitting right at a rising SMA-200 ($190.64) and RSI ~37. Above the SMA-200 the uptrend holds; a final wave (5) higher is favoured once the dip completes - but a loss of $190/$164 would warn of a larger top.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave (4) pullback, then (5) up
Bearish
(4) down then (5) up
$188 (SMA-200)
$176
$250 (then up)
$236.54 (for the dip)
50%
Bull resumes now to new ATH
Bullish
(5) up
$213
$236
$250
$164.27
30%
Larger top, deeper drop
Bearish
Intermediate correction
$176
$164
$140
$236.54
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18 (the active pullback); the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is right at the rising SMA-200 ($190.64). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Pullback after the 14 May 2026 all-time high ($236.54); read as an Intermediate (4)/Minor correction in a Primary bull.
Key signal: Price is testing the rising SMA-200 ($190.64) with daily RSI ~37 - a deep but so-far-normal corrective pullback.
Top target: The dip is testing $188-$190; a final wave (5) then projects new highs toward $250.
Biggest risk: A decisive daily close below the SMA-200 ($190.64), then $164.27, would warn of a larger top.
Confidence: Medium - the bull trend is intact at the SMA-200, but the test of that level is the pivotal call.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
NVIDIA set the all-time high of $236.54 (14 May 2026) and has since pulled back to test the rising SMA-200, printing $191.22 intraday on 26 Jun. The current direction is down at the corrective degree - an Intermediate (4)/Minor wave within the advance - with price right at the SMA-200; a final wave (5) to new highs is favoured if the SMA-200 holds, but a decisive break would warn of a larger top.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull (active)
In progress - uptrend off the 2022/2025 lows
Intermediate (3) high
ATH $236.54 (14 May 2026)
Intermediate (4)/correction (current)
In progress - down from $236.54
Support / SMA-200
$190.64 (rising) - being tested
Intermediate (5) (expected)
Up toward / above $236.54 (~$250)
Confidence rationale: A rising SMA-200, a measured pullback from the ATH, and an intact higher-timeframe uptrend support a fourth-wave correction within the bull. Counter-evidence: RSI/UO have rolled to ~37 and price is at the SMA-200, so a decisive break would open a deeper (4) or a larger top.
Alternate count (20%): the ATH completed a larger advance and the decline is the start of a bigger Intermediate correction toward $164/$140 rather than a shallow fourth wave. Invalidation of the larger-top case: a daily close back above $236.54.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is a corrective pullback (Intermediate (4)/Minor) from $236.54, now testing the SMA-200. Holding $188-$190 sets up a final wave (5) toward $250; losing it opens $176/$164.
Item
Reading
Decline from ATH (so far)
-$45.32 ($236.54 -> $191.22)
Retrace band (of the up-leg)
23.6% $219.48 / 38.2% $208.93 / 61.8% $191.88
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$190.64 (rising) - pivotal
Wave (5) target (after the dip)
new highs ~$250
Invalidation (larger top)
daily close below $190.64 then $164.27
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Intermediate (4) prior low
2026-03-30
$164.27
oversold
low
elevated
Launch of the latest up-leg
Intermediate (3)/ATH
2026-05-14
$236.54
overbought
high
steady
All-time high
Pullback low (intraday)
2026-06-26
$191.22
~37
~38
steady
Test of the SMA-200
Recent high
2026-06-22
$213.99
~45
~45
steady
Lower high - corrective
Current bar
2026-06-26
$192.53
37.5
38.7
-
Testing SMA-200
Invalidation: a decisive daily close below the SMA-200 ($190.64), then $164.27, warns of a larger top; a daily close back above $236.54 confirms a new ATH.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary bull
Up
Bullish
$190 / $164
$236.54
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (4) down
Down (pullback)
Neutral
$190 / $176
$214 / $236
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Corrective down-leg
Down
Bearish
$191.22
$213.99
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro down-leg
Down
Bearish
$191.22
$213.99
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Dip-buy (with trend)
$188-$192 SMA-200 hold
$213 / $236
$176
1h higher low + close > $213
Breakdown short (counter-trend)
close < $190
$176 / $164
$237
daily close < $190.64
Alignment narrative: Weekly is bullish; daily and intraday show a corrective pullback testing the SMA-200. While price holds the SMA-200, dips are buyable into a final wave (5); a decisive daily close below it would shift the bias to a larger correction.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Up-leg into ATH - up
2026-05-05 15:30
2026-05-14 14:30
$196.03
$236.54
Decline - down
2026-05-14 14:30
2026-06-09 12:30
$236.54
$199.34
Bounce - up
2026-06-09 12:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$199.34
$213.99
Decline - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$213.99
$191.22
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:30
-
$191.22
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2025-04-07
2026-05-14
$86.62
$236.54
Intermediate (3) - up
2026-03-30
2026-05-14
$164.27
$236.54
Intermediate (4) - down (in progress)
2026-05-14
-
$236.54
-
Pullback low (intraday)
2026-05-14
2026-06-26
$236.54
$191.22
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (off 2025 low) - up
2025-04-07
2026-05-14
$86.62
$236.54
Intermediate (3)/ATH
2026-03-30
2026-05-14
$164.27
$236.54
Intermediate (4) - down (in progress)
2026-05-14
-
$236.54
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.