Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $304.20 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Palo Alto Networks is in a powerful Primary-degree bull and printed a fresh all-time high at $306.24 (26 Jun); the advance from $139.57 (Feb 2026) is an Intermediate (5)/(3) impulse, with RSI ~70 and UO ~69 confirming strength and price far above a rising SMA-200 ($198.57). Above $139.57 the uptrend holds; the main risk is late-cycle exhaustion near the highs.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bull (5) extends to new highs
Bullish
Intermediate up
$320
$335
$350
$139.57
50%
Pullback then resume up
Bearish
Minor (4) then (5)
$267
$243
$320 (later)
$139.57
30%
Blow-off, sharp correction
Bearish
Intermediate correction
$260
$222
$205
$306.24
20%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are not below it and the highs are above it; price is far above the rising SMA-200 ($198.57). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Intermediate (5)/(3) up within a Primary bull; the Feb-2026 low ($139.57) anchors a steep advance to a new ATH ($306.24).
Key signal: Price is far above a rising SMA-200 with RSI ~70 and UO ~69 - momentum strongly confirms the trend, no clear bearish divergence yet.
Top target: Continuation projects $320-$350; pullbacks toward $267 (23.6%) should hold.
Biggest risk: A steep advance at the highs raises exhaustion risk; a break of $139.57 voids the bullish count.
Confidence: Medium-high on trend, lower on remaining upside given the mature, near-vertical wave.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Palo Alto Networks remains in a Primary-degree bull. After the Feb-2026 low at $139.57 it more than doubled to a fresh all-time high of $306.24 on 26 Jun 2026. The current direction is up, with strong RSI/UO and price far above the rising SMA-200; the advance is mature and steep but intact above $139.57.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull (active)
In progress - multi-year uptrend
Intermediate (4) low
$139.57 (Feb 2026)
Intermediate (5)/(3) (current)
In progress - up, new ATH $306.24
Momentum
RSI ~70 / UO ~69 - strong, no divergence
Next objective
$320 -> $335 -> $350
Confidence rationale: Price far above a rising SMA-200, a clean steep impulse into new highs, and strong RSI/UO confirm the bullish wave. Counter-evidence: the advance is near-vertical and mature, so exhaustion/blow-off risk is rising; watch for bearish RSI/UO divergence on the next high.
Alternate count (30%): the advance is even more extended and recent action is wave 3 of (5), implying still-higher targets before a top; a bullish variation. Invalidation of the bullish primary: a daily close below $139.57.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (5)/(3) up. Shallow pullbacks toward $267 are buyable while the structure holds; fresh highs above $306.24 keep momentum targets ($320-$350) in play.
Item
Reading
Up-leg ((4) low -> ATH)
$166.67 ($139.57 -> $306.24)
Support (of the up-leg)
23.6% $266.91 / 38.2% $242.57
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$198.57 (rising)
Momentum targets
$320 -> $335 -> $350
Invalidation-down
$139.57 (Feb 2026 low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Intermediate (4) low
2026-02-24
$139.57
oversold
low
elevated
Launch of the advance
Interim high
2026-06-01
$302.95
~68
~66
steady
First test of the highs
New ATH
2026-06-26
$306.24
~70
~69
steady
Fresh all-time high; no clear divergence
Pullback (intraday)
2026-06-23
$282.52
~62
~60
steady
Shallow dip held
Current bar
2026-06-26
$304.20
70.3
68.7
-
Strong; far above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below $139.57 voids the bullish impulse; near term, a loss of $267 (23.6%) would warn of a deeper Minor (4).
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary bull
Up
Bullish
$140 / $199
$306 (ATH)
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5)/(3) up
Up
Bullish
$267 / $243
$320 / $350
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Minor up-leg
Up
Bullish
$282.52
$306.24
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro up-leg
Up
Bullish
$295.75
$306.24
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Trend long (with trend)
$285-$295 pullback hold
$320 / $335
$267
1h close > $306.24
Breakout add
close > $306.24
$335 / $350
$285
daily close > $306.24
Alignment narrative: All timeframes are bullish and aligned. Dips are bought while price holds above $267 and the SMA-200; the near-vertical slope means a blow-off and sharp correction become more likely as the move matures - watch momentum at new highs.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Minor advance - up
2026-05-15 09:30
2026-06-01 14:30
$230.26
$302.95
Pullback - down
2026-06-01 14:30
2026-06-09 12:30
$302.95
$251.21
Advance - up
2026-06-09 12:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$251.21
$295.75
Pullback - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-23 09:30
$295.75
$282.52
Push to ATH (in progress) - up
2026-06-23 09:30
-
$282.52
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2025-04-07
2026-06-26
$144.15
$306.24
Intermediate (4) - down
2025-10-28
2026-02-24
$223.61
$139.57
Intermediate (5)/(3) - up (in progress)
2026-02-24
-
$139.57
-
(5) interim high
2026-02-24
2026-06-01
$139.57
$302.95
(5) new ATH
2026-06-01
2026-06-26
$302.95
$306.24
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (multi-year) - up
2022-05-19
2026-06-26
$70.26
$306.24
Intermediate (4) - down
2025-10-28
2026-02-24
$223.61
$139.57
Intermediate (5)/(3) - up (in progress)
2026-02-24
-
$139.57
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.