Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $189.39 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Qualcomm staged a steep run from $121.99 (Apr 2026) to a fresh high of $259.92 (29 May 2026), and is now in a sharp correction of that advance - a wave (A)/(C) decline that has reached the 50% retracement ($191) at $186.26. Price is below the short averages but above a rising SMA-200 ($167.92). Bias is corrective while under ~$233; the larger uptrend is intact above $167.92.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Correction lower toward 175
Bearish
(C) Minor down
$210 (bounce)
$191
$175
$259.92
50%
Bull - dip done, up
Bullish
Impulse up
$215
$233
$260
$167.92
35%
Deeper to 150
Bearish
(C) extended down
$175
$168
$150
$259.92
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price remains above the rising SMA-200 ($167.92). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Sharp correction of the Apr-May 2026 run ($121.99 -> $259.92); price has retraced ~50% of that advance to $186.26.
Key signal: Price is below the short averages but above a rising SMA-200 ($167.92) with daily RSI ~42 - a corrective pullback within a larger uptrend.
Top target: Bounces toward $210 are resistance; the correction targets $191/$175, with the SMA-200 ($168) the key support.
Biggest risk: A break of the SMA-200 ($167.92) would deepen the decline toward $150; conversely a reclaim of $233 reopens the highs.
Confidence: Medium - the pullback is sharp but so-far-normal against a rising SMA-200; the run was steep, so volatility is high.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Qualcomm surged from $121.99 (7 Apr 2026) to a fresh high of $259.92 (29 May 2026) - a steep ~113% run - and has since fallen sharply to $186.26 (26 Jun), about a 50% retracement of that advance. The current direction is down at the corrective degree, with price below the short averages but holding above the rising SMA-200; the larger uptrend is intact unless $167.92 gives way.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Larger uptrend (active)
In progress - off the 2025/2026 lows
Run high
$259.92 (29 May 2026)
Correction (active)
In progress - down from $259.92
Support / SMA-200
$167.92 (rising)
Resumption (if dip holds)
Up toward / above $259.92
Confidence rationale: A sharp but measured retracement (~50%) of a steep advance, with price holding above a rising SMA-200, supports a corrective pullback within an uptrend. Counter-evidence: the run was near-vertical and the pullback equally sharp, so a deeper correction toward the SMA-200 or below cannot be ruled out.
Alternate count (35%): the $259.92 high completed only the first leg of a larger advance and the dip is a wave 2; a reclaim of $233 then $259.92 confirms new highs. Invalidation of the immediate corrective bias: a daily close above $259.92.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is the corrective decline from $259.92. While price holds below ~$210-$233, the path of least resistance is toward $191/$175; the rising SMA-200 ($168) is the pivotal support, and a reclaim of $233 would argue the dip is over.
Item
Reading
Run length
$137.93 ($121.99 -> $259.92)
Retrace band (of the run)
38.2% $207.23 / 50% $190.96 / 61.8% $174.68
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
$167.92 (rising)
Correction objective
$191 -> $175, the SMA-200 the key floor
Invalidation-up
$259.92 (run high)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Prior low
2026-04-07
$121.99
oversold
low
elevated
Launch of the run
Run high
2026-05-29
$259.92
overbought
high
spike
Steep advance peak
Bounce high
2026-06-22
$233.44
~50
~48
steady
Lower high - corrective
Recent low
2026-06-26
$186.26
~42
~38
elevated
~50% retracement of the run
Current bar
2026-06-26
$189.39
42.5
37.6
-
Pullback above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close back above $259.92 voids the corrective count; a decisive break below the SMA-200 ($167.92) deepens the decline toward $150.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Larger uptrend
Up
Bullish
$168 / $150
$259.92
✓
Primary
Daily
Corrective pullback
Down
Neutral-bear
$191 / $168
$210 / $233
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$186.26
$219.00 / $233
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$186.26
$219.00
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with the dip)
$210-$233 rejection
$191 / $175
$260
1h reversal + daily close < $186.26
Dip-buy (with larger trend)
$175-$190 / SMA-200 hold
$215 / $233
$167
daily close > $210, then > $233
Alignment narrative: The weekly trend is up; daily and intraday show a sharp corrective pullback. While price holds the rising SMA-200, the dip is buyable toward a resumption; a decisive break of $167.92 would shift the bias to a larger correction.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Run high
2026-05-29 09:30
2026-05-29 09:30
$259.92
$259.92
Down-leg - down
2026-05-29 09:30
2026-06-10 12:30
$259.92
$190.10
Bounce - up
2026-06-10 12:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$190.10
$233.44
Down-leg - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-26 15:30
$233.44
$186.26
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 15:30
-
$186.26
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Larger uptrend - up
2026-04-07
2026-05-29
$121.99
$259.92
Run (impulse) - up
2026-04-07
2026-05-29
$121.99
$259.92
Correction - down (in progress)
2026-05-29
-
$259.92
-
Bounce within correction - up
2026-06-10
2026-06-22
$190.10
$233.44
Down-leg - down (in progress)
2026-06-22
-
$233.44
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Larger uptrend (off 2026 low) - up
2026-04-07
2026-05-29
$121.99
$259.92
Correction - down (in progress)
2026-05-29
-
$259.92
-
Down-leg to recent low - down
2026-06-22
2026-06-26
$233.44
$186.26
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.