Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., REGN, US75886F1075, NASDAQ, USD

2 · Forecasts

3 · Executive Summary

• Wave position. The emitted primary count places REGN in Minor c of Intermediate (B), the corrective B-wave rally inside Primary Ⓨ — the second zigzag of an unfinished Cycle IV double zigzag that began at the August-2024 all-time high of 1211.20.
• Key signal. The 821.11→591.52 decline is a verified impulsive five (heaviest volume of the sequence, 2.99M, and RSI_14 25.95 at the Minor 3 low), while the 591.52→691.13 bounce has retraced only 0.434 of it — the classic proportion for a fourth/B-wave bounce rather than the start of a new bull leg. Price also sits below a falling SMA_200 (705.78) with SMA_50 (641.68) beneath it.
• Top target. Upside first: the 700–726 channel × Fibonacci box between 25 August and 10 September 2026. Then downside 591.52 → 476.72 (C = 1.0 × A, coinciding with the June-2025 low at 476.49) → 422.54.
• Biggest risk. This is a genuine three-way tie (35 / 33 / 32). The primary count's weakest link is that the 476.49→821.11 advance cannot be given a legal corrective decomposition — both the single-zigzag form (C = 1.98 × A) and the double-zigzag form (component W's C = 1.86 × A) are rejected by validate_count.py, so the count survives only by leaving Primary Ⓧ's internals unspecified. A daily close above 733.41, and certainly above 821.11, hands the tape to the bullish Cycle-V count.
• Confidence. Calibrated confidence 0.687 (guideline 0.677, Fibonacci 0.715, indicator 0.680; weights 0.5 / 0.25 / 0.25). The gate returned valid: true across 14 pattern-rule, 28 subdivision and 27 pivot checks with no near-miss caveats and no confidence caps binding.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

REGN is in Minor c (Minor degree, up), the third leg of the Intermediate (B) corrective rally inside Primary Ⓨ of Cycle IV. Minor c began at 637.80 on 23 July 2026; the last close is 655.96.

Confidence rationale

The gate (validate_count.py) returns valid: true: R1 (wave2_not_beyond_start_wave1), R2 (wave3_not_shortest) and R3 (wave4_not_beyond_end_wave1) all pass, across 14 pattern-rule, 28 subdivision and 27 pivot-extreme checks, with no near-miss caveats. Two pattern-rule items and five subdivision items were emitted as pass: null for analyst resolution and are resolved as follows: (i) not_all_of_1_3_5_extended on Intermediate (A) and on Minor a — each impulse carries exactly one labelled extension (Wave 3 in both), so the rule is satisfied; (ii) five generic corrective subdivision items (Cycle II, Intermediate Y's B, Intermediate (A)'s Minor 4, Intermediate (B)'s Minor b, Minor a's Minute iv) — each is a genuine three-wave counter-trend leg whose precise family (zigzag vs flat) is not resolvable at the available granularity; none is a triangle in a wave-2 slot, so none is illegal.

Scoring: guideline_score 0.677 over 22 weighted, applicable guidelines; fib_score 0.715 over nine measured ratio observations; indicator_score 0.680; blended and calibrated confidence 0.687 with no caps binding (the nesting_unverified flag was passed — Cycle I and Cycle III are macro anchors that are not decomposed — but its 0.75 cap sits above the raw confidence, so caps_applied is empty). Normalised against the two rival counts the probabilities are 35 / 33 / 32 — an honest near-tie, not a conviction call.

Alternate count

Primary ② unfinished — Cycle V intact (33%). Cycle IV ended at 476.49 on 5 June 2025 and Cycle V is under way, but Primary ② is a double three, not a completed flat: W ended at 591.52, X is the 591.52→691.13 five, and the Y leg is now running toward 603.43 / 591.52 / 549.24 (0.618 × W, which sits on the 0.786 retracement of Primary ① at 550.24) before Primary ③ resumes. Invalidated above 691.13. The second alternate — Cycle V already advancing in Primary ③ (32%) — is invalidated below 591.52.

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Sub-wave structure of Intermediate (B)

Minor a (591.52 → 691.13) is a verified five: Minute i 591.52→640.82, ii →594.90 (0.931 retrace — deep but legal, R1 clear by 3.38 pts), iii →677.92 (the extended third, 1.684 × i), iv →648.66 (0.352 of iii, no overlap with i's 640.82 top), v →691.13 (0.861 × i). Minor b (691.13 → 637.80) retraced 0.535 of Minor a, between the 0.5 (641.33) and 0.618 (629.57) grid levels. Minor c began at 637.80 and, on 30-minute data, has posted Minute (i) 637.80→667.50 and is consolidating (655.48 low, 667.33 recovery high).

Fibonacci targets and supports

Indicator readings at the labelled pivots

Indicator confluence checklist (deterministic — feeds indicator_score 0.680)

Weighted guideline checklist (feeds guideline_score 0.677)

Fibonacci confluence observations (feed fib_score 0.715)

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Precision layer (1-hour / 30-minute)

Alignment narrative. The monthly and weekly layers are unambiguously corrective — price is 45.8% below the August-2024 all-time high, the weekly SMA(18) is falling and price trades under a declining SMA_200 (705.78 daily). The daily layer is transitional: price has recovered above a still-falling SMA_50 (641.68) while SMA_200 (705.78) remains well overhead — exactly what a maturing B-wave rally looks like. The 1-hour layer is constructive but not yet strong: the last close (655.96) sits between the 1-hour SMA_50 (667.75) and the 1-hour SMA_200 (643.83), with UO at 55.5. Conflict flagged ⚠: the intraday five up from 591.52 is a motive structure inside a higher-degree corrective — the resolution is that it is Minor a of a zigzag, not the first wave of a new bull market, and that reading holds only while price stays below 733.41 / 821.11.

7 · Waves — 1-Hour

8 · Waves — Daily

9 · Waves — Weekly

10 · Disclaimer