Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $460.02 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Spotify topped at the $785.00 all-time high (Jun 2025) and is in a Primary-degree correction - wave (A) to $405.00 (Feb 2026), a choppy wave (B) rally that peaked near $534-$570, and wave (C) now developing. Price is below a falling SMA-200 ($549.76); above $785 the correction is void, below $405 it deepens.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave (C) lower toward 405
Bearish
(C) Intermediate down
$500 (bounce)
$440
$410
$785.00
50%
Bull - correction done, up
Bullish
Impulse up
$540
$595
$660
$405.00
35%
Deeper (C) to 370
Bearish
(C) extended down
$440
$405
$370
$785.00
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is below the falling SMA-200 ($549.76). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree correction off the $785.00 all-time high; an A-B-C with wave (C) developing after a choppy (B) near $534.
Key signal: Price is below a falling SMA-200 ($549.76) with daily RSI ~45; the rebound from $405 has been corrective and overlapping, not impulsive.
Top target: Bounces toward $500-$534 are sell zones; wave (C) targets the $405-$440 area, with $405 the key floor.
Biggest risk: A daily close back above $534 - then $785 - would flip the structure bullish toward new highs.
Confidence: Medium - the corrective read is clear, but the choppy structure leaves a credible completed-correction alternate.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Spotify completed a Primary-degree bull at the all-time high of $785.00 (27 Jun 2025) and has since been correcting. The decline to $405.00 (5 Feb 2026) was wave (A), the choppy rebound peaking near $534-$570 a wave (B), and price is now in wave (C) down, trading at $460.02 below the falling SMA-200. The current direction is down at the corrective degree.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull
Complete - into the Jun-2025 ATH ($785.00)
Primary correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from $785.00
Intermediate (A)
Complete ($785.00 -> $405.00)
Intermediate (B)
Complete ($405.00 -> ~$534), choppy
Intermediate (C) (current)
In progress - down, target $405-$440
Confidence rationale: The A-B-C shape off the ATH, price below a falling SMA-200, and an overlapping/corrective rebound support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: the structure is choppy and the $405 low has held on a retest, so a completed-correction alternate carries weight.
Alternate count (35%): the $405.00 low completed the correction (or a fourth wave) and the rebound began a new advance; a daily close above $534 then $785 confirms this. Invalidation of the corrective primary: daily close above $785.00.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (C) down. While price holds below $500-$534 and the structure stays under the (B) peak, the path of least resistance is toward $440/$410; a reclaim of $500-$540 would warn the correction is ending.
Item
Reading
Wave (A) length
$380.00 ($785.00 -> $405.00)
Wave (B) peak
~$534-$570 (choppy, overlapping)
61.8% retrace of the bull
$593.43
(C) objective
$405-$440, potentially $370 if extended
Invalidation-up
$785.00 (ATH); a close > $534 warns first
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary top (ATH)
2025-06-27
$785.00
overbought
high
-
All-time high
Intermediate (A) low
2026-02-05
$405.00
oversold
low
elevated
First correction low
Intermediate (B) peak
2026-05-22
$534.00
~55
~55
steady
Choppy counter-trend high
Recent low
2026-06-26
$438.70
~45
~46
steady
Wave (C) pressing lower
Current bar
2026-06-26
$460.02
45.2
46.4
-
Weak bounce below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $785.00 voids the corrective count; a close above $534 warns first. A sustained break below $405.00 confirms wave (C) lower.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary (C) down
Down
Bearish (corrective)
$405 / $370
$785
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (C) down
Down
Bearish
$438 / $405
$500 / $534
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$438.70
$472.72 / $515
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$438.70
$467.08
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$500-$534 rejection
$440 / $405
$535
1h reversal + daily close < $438.70
Reversal long (counter-trend)
reclaim $500
$534 / $570
$435
daily close > $515, then > $534
Alignment narrative: Higher timeframes are corrective/down while intraday shows only bounces against the trend. The bias stays lower while price is below $500-$534 and the SMA-200; a daily close above $534 would shift the structure toward the bullish alternate.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (B) peak
2026-05-22 11:30
2026-05-22 11:30
$534.00
$534.00
Down-leg - down
2026-05-22 11:30
2026-06-12 09:30
$534.00
$470.92
Bounce - up
2026-06-12 09:30
2026-06-18 13:30
$470.92
$472.72
Down-leg - down
2026-06-18 13:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$472.72
$438.70
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:30
-
$438.70
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2022-11-04
2025-06-27
$69.29
$785.00
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-06-27
-
$785.00
-
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-06-27
2026-02-05
$785.00
$405.00
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-02-05
2026-05-22
$405.00
$534.00
Intermediate (C) - down (in progress)
2026-05-22
-
$534.00
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (multi-year) - up
2022-11-04
2025-06-27
$69.29
$785.00
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-06-27
2026-02-05
$785.00
$405.00
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-02-05
2026-05-22
$405.00
$534.00
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-06-27
-
$785.00
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.