Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v5beta3 (v5.0-beta3) · Report generated Thursday, 9 July 2026, 14:30 EEST
Overview
Last close: €6,204.91 (8 July 2026). Primary ③ completed an extended-third impulse at the 6,431 all-time high (6 Jul); a Primary ④ pullback is now underway (bias short-term corrective, medium-term bullish) with Primary ⑤ to new highs to follow — bearish top-is-in alternate voids above 6,431.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Primary — ④ pullback, then ⑤ ③ complete at 6,431; shallow-④ read
Up (net)
Primary ④ down → Primary ⑤ up
5,680 (23.6%)
5,377 (Int (4) support)
⑤ 7,000+ (1.0×W1)
< 4,415 (voids ④ / R3)
56%
Bearish — top-is-in degree-reframe: five from 3,250 complete
Down
Primary/Cycle Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ down
5,680
5,216 (38.2%)
4,950 (0.5×)
> 6,431 (new ATH)
25%
Bullish extension 6,431 only Int (3)/(iii); ⑤ still extending
Up
Int (v) of Primary ⑤ up
6,620
6,900
7,100
< 5,377
19%
SMA(18) side note (daily, descriptive only): the SMA(18) trend is rising (6,280.6); the last two daily bars' lows are not both below SMA(18); the last two daily bars' highs are both above SMA(18). Purely descriptive — it does not affect the count or probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Cycle III of a Supercycle advance; within it Primary ③ (an extended-third impulse from the Sep-2022 low at 3,249.57) completed at the 6,431.42 all-time high on 6 July 2026. Primary ④ is now beginning.
Key signal: momentum has rolled over off the high (daily RSI 68→49, UO 65→49) and Wave (5) advanced on declining volume (16.0M vs 21.8M at the Int (3) top) — a classic fifth-wave exhaustion signature.
Top target: after a Primary ④ dip toward 5,680–5,377, Primary ⑤ projects to 7,000+ (Wave ⑤ ≈ Wave ①).
Biggest risk: the five waves from 3,250 are a complete higher-degree impulse — i.e. 6,431 is THE top and a multi-month A-B-C correction has begun (bearish alternate, 25%).
Confidence: moderate (calibrated 0.66, no caps). Gate fully passed; the main soft weakness is imperfect Wave 2↔4 alternation (both sharp zigzags).
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
The market is in Primary ④ (Intermediate/Primary-degree correction, direction down), which began at the all-time high 6,431.42 on 2026-07-06; last reading 6,204.91 (2026-07-08). This nests inside the still-unfolding Cycle III (from the Mar-2020 low 2,302.84), itself Wave (V) of a Supercycle anchored at the Mar-2009 low.
in progress · from 2026-07-06 @ 6,431.42 → now 6,204.91
Primary ⑤
pending (target 7,000+)
Confidence rationale: the gate passes on every applicable rule (R1: ② low 3,249.57 > ① start 2,302.84; R2: ③ 3,182 pts is not the shortest; R3: ④ stays far above ① top 4,415), all Intermediate sub-waves of Primary ③ were read and verified from the data (subdivision_verified), and the extension sits in the usual place (Wave 3, not fragile). Calibrated confidence 0.66 (guideline 0.667, fib 0.70, indicator 0.60; no caps applied). No sub-Minor near-miss caveats. The chief soft weakness is weak Wave 2↔4 alternation — both corrections are sharp zigzags of similar (≈38–40%) depth.
Alternate count (25%): the five waves from 3,249.57 form a complete Primary/Cycle impulse, making 6,431 the top of the whole advance and starting a larger A-B-C correction toward 5,400/4,950. Invalidated above 6,431.42 (a new ATH). This is the mandatory degree-reframe; it stays the alternate because the current decline retraces only ~23% of Wave (5) — fourth-wave-like, favoring an ongoing impulse.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
Primary ③ subdivided into a clean five at Intermediate degree with the extension in Wave (3): (1)=+1,242, (3)=+2,207 (longest), (5)=+1,055 ≈ Wave (1) (equality of the non-extended legs). Wave (5) topped at 6,431.42 (6 Jul) and price has since turned down — the opening of Primary ④.
Wave detail
Value
Current wave
Primary ④ (corrective, down), in progress
Start
2026-07-06 @ 6,431.42 (all-time high)
Last reading
2026-07-08 @ 6,204.91
Primary ④ retrace targets
0.236 → 5,680.5 · Int (4) support 5,376.8 · 0.382 → 5,216.0
All layers agree: a macro uptrend (Cycle III) with a young counter-trend correction (Primary ④) rippling down through the intraday layers. The daily/weekly bull is intact while price holds above 5,377; a sustained break under 4,415 would be needed to void the bull. Intraday weakness is a corrective opportunity, not a trend change.
Precision Layer Signals
Layer
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
1-Hour (buy ④ low)
5,680–5,377
6,431 then 7,000
< 5,300
Bullish RSI/UO divergence at the ④ low + reclaim of the hourly down-channel
30-Minute (fade rallies)
6,300–6,380
6,150 / 6,050
> 6,431
Lower-high with UO failing prior high (Wave-B trap)
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (5) sub-advance
2026-03-23
2026-07-06 12:00
5,376.81
6,431.42
Minor a (of Primary ④)
2026-07-06 12:00
2026-07-08 17:00
6,431.42
6,180.94
Minor b/c
2026-07-08 17:00
—
6,180.94
—
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle III
2020-03-16
—
2,302.84
—
Primary ①
2020-03-16
2021-11-18
2,302.84
4,415.23
Primary ②
2021-11-18
2022-09-29
4,415.23
3,249.57
Primary ③
2022-09-29
2026-07-06
3,249.57
6,431.42
Intermediate (1)
2022-09-29
2023-07-31
3,249.57
4,491.51
Intermediate (2)
2023-07-31
2023-10-23
4,491.51
3,993.10
Intermediate (3)
2023-10-23
2026-02-26
3,993.10
6,199.78
Intermediate (4)
2026-02-26
2026-03-23
6,199.78
5,376.81
Intermediate (5)
2026-03-23
2026-07-06
5,376.81
6,431.42
Primary ④ (current)
2026-07-06
—
6,431.42
—
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Supercycle (V) (anchor)
2009-03-09
—
1,765.49
—
Cycle I
2009-03-09
2015-04-13
1,765.49
3,836.28
Cycle II
2015-04-13
2020-03-16
3,836.28
2,302.84
Cycle III (current)
2020-03-16
—
2,302.84
—
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.