Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v5beta3 (v5.0-beta3) · Report generated Thursday, 9 July 2026, 09:40 EEST
Overview
Last close: €635.91 (8 July 2026). Cycle wave III is topping at the 654.44 all-time high (6 Jul 2026): Primary (5) is completing, so a Cycle-IV correction is the base case (39%) — though a shallow pullback and only mild divergence keep a final high / new-ATH continuation alive (combined 61%). Key near-term invalidation 559.05.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
1. Cycle IV correction begins (top in)
Down
Cycle IV Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ (Primary)
563 (0.236)
538 (0.382 of ③)
507 (0.382 Cycle III)
decisive new highs > 660
39%
2. Primary (4) dip, then new highs
Up
Primary (4) down → Primary (5) up
665
690
715 (new ATH)
daily close < 559.05 (voids < 495.46)
33%
3. One more high now
Up
Minor 5 of Primary (5)
654
668
685
daily close < 602.96
28%
SMA(18) side note (daily; descriptive only — no bearing on the count or probabilities): trend rising; the last two bars’ lows are not both below SMA(18) (639.71); the last two bars’ highs are both above SMA(18).
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Cycle wave III (from the 2009 low, via the 2020 COVID low 268.57) is in its terminal Primary (5), topping at the 654.44 all-time high (6 Jul 2026).
Key signal: a clean five-wave Primary sequence is complete/near-complete at a new ATH, with the last daily bar reversing hard (RSI 69→50, hourly oversold) — classic terminal behaviour, but momentum divergence is only mild.
Top target: ~715 if Primary (5) extends to fresh highs (bullish reframe); otherwise 654.44 stands as the Cycle III high.
Biggest risk: the shallow (≈19%) pullback favours an ongoing impulse — the market may print one more high (or a full new-ATH Primary (5)) before any major top, so shorting the top is low-confidence.
Confidence: moderate (guideline 0.73, blended confidence 0.70). The extended Primary (3) has a ~1.6% internal (4)/(1) overlap → subdivision not cleanly verified (nesting cap noted).
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
The active wave is Primary (5) of Cycle III (up), which began at the March-2026 low 559.05 (2026-03-23) and is completing near the 654.44 ATH. The last confirmed lower-degree pivot is Minor 3 of (5) at 654.44 (6 Jul 2026); the current move is a Minor-4 pullback (last close 635.91, 8 Jul 2026).
Degree hierarchy
Cycle → Primary → Intermediate → Minor
Cycle
Cycle III up, in progress (268.57 → 654.44) — topping
Primary (current)
Primary (5) up, in progress (559.05 → 654.44)
Intermediate
Primary (3) decomposed into (1)-(5); (5) ended 636.16 (Feb 2026)
Minor (current)
Minor 4 of (5) down, in progress (from 654.44)
Confidence rationale: the gate passes at Cycle and Primary degree (R1/R2/R3 all true; Primary (4) low 559.05 > Primary (1) top 495.46 — no R3 overlap). guideline_score 0.73, fib 0.72, indicator 0.63 → blended confidence 0.70. The only blemish is the ~1.6% Intermediate (4)/(1) overlap inside the extended Primary (3) (subdivision_verified=false; nesting_unverified cap 0.75, non-binding). No sub-Minor near-miss caveats.
Alternate count (33%): the bullish degree-reframe — 654.44 is only Primary (3) (or Minor 3 of (5)); a moderate Primary (4) dip toward 576-559 precedes Primary (5) up to ~690-715 (new ATH) before Cycle III ends. Invalidated on a daily close below 559.05; the broader Cycle-III bull voids only below 495.46 (R3).
5 · Current Wave Analysis
Primary (5) (from 559.05) subdivides: Minor 1 559.05→626.58 (17 Apr), Minor 2 →602.96 (29 Apr, 35% retrace), Minor 3 →654.44 (6 Jul, the ATH), Minor 4 in progress. Primary (5) is a compact, weak terminal fifth (95 pts vs Primary (1) 227 and (3) 256) — possibly an ending diagonal — consistent with an exhaustion top.
Fibonacci targets
Direction
Basis
Level
Down (Cycle IV)
0.236 of Cycle III
563.4 (≈ Primary (4) low 559)
Down
0.382 of Primary (3)
538.2
Down
0.382 of Cycle III
507.0
Up (extension)
inverse-W4 (1.236-1.618×)
654-684
Up (new ATH)
modest Primary (5) projection
690-715
Indicator readings
Daily RSI_14 66.6 at the 6-Jul high vs 69.1 at the Feb-2026 (636) high — only mild bearish divergence; last bar RSI collapsed to 50.7 and UO to 50.9. Hourly RSI is oversold (29.5), signalling the pullback is stretched short-term.
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Wave (degree)
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Read
Primary (3) top
2026-02-27
636.16
69.1
58.0
strong
Primary (4) low
2026-03-23
559.05
~35
~32
oversold turn
Minor 3 / ATH
2026-07-06
654.44
66.6
63.6
mild divergence
Minor 4 (current)
2026-07-08
635.91
50.7
50.9
rolling over
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Align
Macro
Weekly/Monthly
Cycle III
Up (mature)
Topping
559 / 495
654 / 715
✓
Primary
Daily
Primary (5)
Up
Late-stage
559.05
654.44
✓
Minor
1-Hour
Minor 4 pullback
Down
Corrective
625 / 603
654.44
⚠
Minute
30-Min
a-b-c down
Down
Corrective
634
645 / 654
⚠
Higher timeframes are bullish-but-topping; intraday is corrective. This is the expected picture at a fifth-wave top: the daily impulse is complete/near-complete while the 1-hour/30-min work off a pullback. A close below 559.05 would tip the balance decisively bearish; sustained trade above 654.44 favours the extension.
Precision Layer Signals
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Fade the top (Cycle IV)
645-654
563 → 507
> 660 close
daily close < 620, then < 602.96
Buy the (4)/Minor-4 dip
576-559
690-715
< 559.05 close
hourly reversal + reclaim 645
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Minor 1 (of Primary (5))
2026-03-23
2026-04-17
559.05
626.58
Minor 2
2026-04-17
2026-04-29
626.58
602.96
Minor 3
2026-04-29
2026-07-06 09:00
602.96
654.44
Minor 4 (in progress)
2026-07-06 09:00
—
654.44
634.29 (low)
Minute a (of Minor 4)
2026-07-06 09:00
2026-07-08 11:00
654.35
634.29
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle III
2020-03-16
—
268.57
654.44 (topping)
Primary (1)
2020-03-16
2022-01-04
268.57
495.46
Primary (2)
2022-01-04
2022-10-13
495.46
379.72
Primary (3)
2022-10-13
2026-02-27
379.72
636.16
Intermediate (1)
2022-10-13
2023-07-27
379.72
471.74
Intermediate (2)
2023-07-27
2023-10-27
471.74
429.58
Intermediate (3)
2023-10-27
2025-03-03
429.58
565.18
Intermediate (4) ⚠
2025-03-03
2025-04-07
565.18
464.31
Intermediate (5)
2025-04-07
2026-02-27
464.31
636.16
Primary (4)
2026-02-27
2026-03-23
636.16
559.05
Primary (5) (in progress)
2026-03-23
—
559.05
654.44 (ATH)
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle I
2009-03-09
2020-02-19
155.38
433.90
Cycle II
2020-02-19
2020-03-16
433.90
268.57
Cycle III (in progress)
2020-03-16
—
268.57
654.44 (topping)
Primary (1)
2020-03-16
2022-01-04
268.57
495.46
Primary (2)
2022-01-04
2022-10-13
495.46
379.72
Primary (3)
2022-10-13
2026-02-27
379.72
636.16
Primary (4)
2026-02-27
2026-03-23
636.16
559.05
Primary (5) (in progress)
2026-03-23
—
559.05
654.44
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.