Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $379.71 (26 June 2026). Primary count: Tesla topped at the $498.83 all-time high (Dec 2025) and is in a Primary-degree correction - wave (A) to $337.24 (Apr 2026), a deep wave (B) bounce to $453.40 (May 2026), and wave (C) now developing. Price is below a falling SMA-200 ($417.96); above $498.83 the correction is void, below $337.24 it deepens.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Wave (C) lower toward 320
Bearish
(C) Intermediate down
$410 (bounce)
$357
$322
$498.83
50%
Bull - correction done, up
Bullish
Impulse up
$430
$453
$499
$337.24
35%
Deeper (C) to 290
Bearish
(C) extended down
$357
$322
$290
$498.83
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; price is below the falling SMA-200 ($417.96). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree correction off the $498.83 all-time high; an A-B-C with wave (C) developing after the (B) high at $453.40.
Key signal: Price is below a falling SMA-200 ($417.96) with daily RSI ~41; the May bounce to $453.40 retraced a deep 72% of wave (A) - a B-wave that has since rolled over.
Top target: Bounces toward $410-$432 are sell zones; wave (C) targets the $322-$357 area, with $337.24 the key floor.
Biggest risk: The deep (B) at $453.40 means a daily close above it - and ultimately $498.83 - would flip the structure bullish.
Confidence: Medium - the corrective tape is clear, but Tesla's high volatility and a 72% B-wave keep a bullish alternate credible.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Tesla completed a Primary-degree bull at the all-time high of $498.83 (22 Dec 2025) and has since been correcting. The decline to $337.24 (7 Apr 2026) was wave (A), the rebound to $453.40 (13 May 2026) a deep (72%) wave (B), and price is now in wave (C) down, trading at $379.71 below the falling SMA-200. The current direction is down at the corrective degree.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull
Complete - into the Dec-2025 ATH ($498.83)
Primary correction (active)
In progress - A-B-C from $498.83
Intermediate (A)
Complete ($498.83 -> $337.24)
Intermediate (B)
Complete ($337.24 -> $453.40), deep 72% bounce
Intermediate (C) (current)
In progress - down, target $322-$357
Confidence rationale: The A-B-C shape off the ATH, price below a falling SMA-200, and a rolled-over B-wave support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: wave (B) retraced a deep 72% of (A) and Tesla is highly volatile/news-driven, so a completed-correction alternate and sharp reversals are real possibilities.
Alternate count (35%): the $337.24 low completed the correction (or a fourth wave) and the rally to $453.40 began a new advance; a daily close above $453.40 then $498.83 confirms this. Invalidation of the corrective primary: daily close above $498.83.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (C) down. While price holds below $410-$432 and the structure stays under $453.40, the path of least resistance is toward $357/$322; a reclaim of $432-$453 would warn the correction is ending.
Item
Reading
Wave (A) length
$161.59 ($498.83 -> $337.24)
Wave (B) retrace of (A)
71.9% ($337.24 -> $453.40) - deep
38.2% retrace of the bull
$390.12
(C)=(A) projection
~$291.81 from $453.40; nearer-term $322-$357
Invalidation-up
$498.83 (ATH); a close > $453.40 warns first
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Primary top (ATH)
2025-12-22
$498.83
overbought
high
-
All-time high
Intermediate (A) low
2026-04-07
$337.24
oversold
low
elevated
First correction low
Intermediate (B) high
2026-05-13
$453.40
~58
~55
steady
Deep 72% counter-trend bounce
Recent low
2026-06-26
$368.60
~41
~46
steady
Wave (C) pressing lower
Current bar
2026-06-26
$379.71
41.2
45.9
-
Weak; below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $498.83 voids the corrective count; a close above $453.40 warns first. A sustained break below $337.24 confirms wave (C) lower.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary (C) down
Down
Bearish (corrective)
$337 / $322
$499
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (C) down
Down
Bearish
$369 / $337
$410 / $453
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Down-leg / bounce
Down
Bearish
$368.60
$414.75
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$368.60
$387.80
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$410-$432 rejection
$357 / $322
$454
1h reversal + daily close < $368.60
Reversal long (counter-trend)
reclaim $415
$432 / $453
$365
daily close > $432, then > $453.40
Alignment narrative: Higher timeframes are corrective/down while intraday shows only bounces against the trend. The bias stays lower while price is below $410-$453 and the SMA-200; given Tesla's volatility, a daily close above $453.40 would shift the structure toward the bullish alternate.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (B) high
2026-05-13 11:30
2026-05-13 11:30
$453.40
$453.40
Down-leg - down
2026-05-13 11:30
2026-06-05 14:30
$453.40
$388.59
Bounce - up
2026-06-05 14:30
2026-06-22 09:30
$388.59
$414.75
Down-leg - down
2026-06-22 09:30
2026-06-26 09:30
$414.75
$368.60
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 09:30
-
$368.60
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2025-04-07
2025-12-22
$214.25
$498.83
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-12-22
-
$498.83
-
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-12-22
2026-04-07
$498.83
$337.24
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-04-07
2026-05-13
$337.24
$453.40
Intermediate (C) - down (in progress)
2026-05-13
-
$453.40
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (off 2025 low) - up
2025-04-07
2025-12-22
$214.25
$498.83
Intermediate (A) - down
2025-12-22
2026-04-07
$498.83
$337.24
Intermediate (B) - up
2026-04-07
2026-05-13
$337.24
$453.40
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-12-22
-
$498.83
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.