Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: €77.09 (26 June 2026). Primary count: UniCredit S.p.A. is in a strong multi-year Primary-degree bull (the post-2023 European-bank re-rating) and printed a fresh high at €80.95 (18 Jun 2026); the advance from the €57.36 low (23 Mar 2026) is Intermediate (5) up, with price above a rising SMA-200 (€68.35). Above €57.36 the uptrend holds; the main risk is late-cycle exhaustion near the highs.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bull (5) extends to new highs
Bullish
Intermediate (5) up
€83
€85
€88
€57.36
55%
Pullback then resume up
Bearish
Minor (4) then (5)
€75.38
€71.94
€83 (later)
€57.36
30%
Top, deeper correction
Bearish
Intermediate correction
€71.94
€68.35
€57.36
€80.95
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is rising on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are not below it and the highs are above it; price is above the rising SMA-200 (€68.35). This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Intermediate (5) up within a multi-year Primary bull; the 23 Mar 2026 low (€57.36) anchors the leg and a new high (€80.95) was just set.
Key signal: Price is above a rising SMA-200 (€68.35) - the post-2023 bank re-rating trend remains firmly intact.
Top target: Continuation projects €83-€88; shallow pullbacks toward €75.38 should hold.
Biggest risk: A fifth wave near the highs is vulnerable; a break of €57.36 voids the bullish count.
Confidence: Medium-high on trend, lower on remaining upside given the mature wave position.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
UniCredit S.p.A. remains in a strong Primary-degree bull. After the Intermediate (4) low at €57.36 (23 Mar 2026) it rallied to a fresh high of €80.95 (18 Jun 2026) as wave (5). The current direction is up with a shallow pullback in progress; price holds above the rising SMA-200, and the advance is mature but intact above €57.36.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Primary bull (active)
In progress - multi-year uptrend
Intermediate (4) low
€57.36 (23 Mar 2026)
Intermediate (5) (current)
In progress - up, new high €80.95
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
€68.35 (rising)
Next objective
€83 -> €85 -> €88
Confidence rationale: Price above a rising SMA-200, a clean impulse into new highs, and the intact post-2023 bank re-rating support the bullish wave. Counter-evidence: this is a fifth wave at multi-year highs, where exhaustion risk rises; watch for bearish RSI/UO divergence.
Alternate count (30%): the advance is more extended and recent action is wave 3 of (5), implying still-higher targets before a top; a bullish variation. Invalidation of the bullish primary: a daily close below €57.36.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is Intermediate (5) up, now in a shallow pullback. Holding €75.38-€71.94 keeps the momentum targets in play; fresh highs above €80.95 confirm continuation.
Item
Reading
Wave (5) leg
€57.36 -> €80.95
Support (of the up-leg)
23.6% €75.38 / 38.2% €71.94
SMA-200 (trend anchor)
€68.35 (rising)
Momentum targets
€83 -> €85 -> €88
Invalidation-down
€57.36 (23 Mar 2026 (4) low)
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Intermediate (4) low
23 Mar 2026
€57.36
oversold
low
elevated
Correction low; launch point
New high
18 Jun 2026
€80.95
~60
~55
steady
Fresh multi-year high
Current bar
2026-06-26
€77.09
-
-
-
Constructive above SMA-200
Invalidation: a daily close below €57.36 voids the bullish impulse; a loss of the SMA-200 (€68.35) would warn of a deeper correction.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary bull
Up
Bullish
€57.36 / €68.35
€80.95
✓
Primary
Daily
Intermediate (5) up
Up
Bullish
€75.38 / €68.35
€83 / €88
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Minor pullback
Down
Neutral
€76.47
€80.95
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro pullback
Down
Neutral
€76.47
€80.95
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Trend long (with trend)
€75.38 pullback hold
€83 / €85
€71.94
1h close > €80.95
Breakout add
close > €80.95
€85 / €88
€75.38
daily close > €80.95
Alignment narrative: Weekly and daily trends are bullish; intraday shows a normal pullback. Dips are bought while price holds above the SMA-200; a daily close above €80.95 extends the move, while a loss of €57.36 would end it.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Intermediate (4) low
2026-03-23 09:00
2026-03-23 09:00
€57.36
€57.36
Minor advance - up
2026-03-23 09:00
2026-06-18 16:00
€57.36
€80.95
Pullback - down
2026-06-18 16:00
2026-06-26 15:00
€80.95
€76.47
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-26 15:00
-
€76.47
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull - up
2022-07-21
2026-06-18
€8.24
€80.95
Intermediate (3) - up
2025-04-07
2026-02-10
€38.52
€79.79
Intermediate (4) - down
2026-02-10
2026-03-23
€79.79
€57.36
Intermediate (5) - up (in progress)
2026-03-23
-
€57.36
-
(5) interim high
2026-03-23
2026-06-18
€57.36
€80.95
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Primary bull (multi-year) - up
2022-07-21
2026-06-18
€8.24
€80.95
Intermediate (4) - down
2026-02-10
2026-03-23
€79.79
€57.36
Intermediate (5) - up (in progress)
2026-03-23
-
€57.36
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.