Claude Opus 4.8 · elliot-wave-analyst-v4beta4-slim (v4.0-beta4-slim) · Report generated Saturday, 27 June 2026, 22:45 EEST
Overview
Last close: $132.26 (26 June 2026). Primary count: a Cycle-degree top at $336.99 (Nov 2025) gave way to a sharp Primary decline to $114.62 (Apr 2026); the bounce to $191.25 (May 2026) failed and price is back near the lows, below a falling SMA-200 ($207.86). Bias is bearish/corrective while under $191.25; $114.62 is the line in the sand.
2 · Forecasts
Scenario
Direction
Next wave (degree)
T1
T2
T3
Invalidation
Prob.
Bear continuation to new lows
Bearish
(C)/wave 3 down
$120 (bounce)
$114.62
$108
$191.25
50%
Bullish - base built, recover
Bullish
Impulse up
$144
$160
$191
$114.62
35%
Sideways triangle / range
Bearish
Triangle (B)
$150
$130
$119
$191.25
15%
SMA(18) side note (descriptive only): trend is falling on the short SMA-18; the last two daily bars' lows are below it and the highs are not above it; the longer SMA-200 ($207.86) is also falling well above price. This note does not affect the wave count or scenario probabilities.
3 · Executive Summary
Wave position: Primary-degree decline from the $336.99 high; price hovers above the $114.62 low after a failed bounce to $191.25.
Key signal: Price is far below the falling SMA-200 ($207.86) - a textbook downtrend; the May rally to $191.25 was a counter-trend B-wave that collapsed.
Top target: Bounces toward $144-$152 are sell zones; a break of $114.62 opens $108 and lower.
Biggest risk: A daily close above $191.25 (the B-wave high) negates the immediate bearish case and signals a base.
Confidence: Medium-high on the downtrend bias given the SMA-200 position; the precise sub-count is less certain.
4 · Current Position in the Cycle
Zscaler topped at $336.99 on 3 Nov 2025 and fell sharply to $114.62 on 10 Apr 2026. The rebound to $191.25 (26 May 2026) was a violent but corrective B-wave that quickly failed, and price has slid back to the $119-$132 area. With price below a falling SMA-200, the larger structure is corrective/bearish and the current move is wave (C) or a third-wave decline.
Degree-hierarchy
Label / status
Cycle top
$336.99 (Nov 2025) - end of the prior advance
Primary correction (active)
In progress - down from $336.99
Intermediate (A) / 1
Complete ($336.99 -> $114.62)
Intermediate (B) / 2
Complete ($114.62 -> $191.25), failed rally
Intermediate (C) / 3 (current)
In progress - down, target $108-$120
Confidence rationale: Price below a falling SMA-200, a failed B-wave bounce, and falling short-term momentum support the bearish primary. Counter-evidence: ZS is far off its highs and a higher low above $114.62 would hint a base is forming, which is why the bullish alternate is non-trivial.
Alternate count (35%): the $114.62 low completed the decline and the structure is basing; a higher low above $114.62 followed by a daily close above $191.25 would confirm a new advance. Invalidation of the corrective primary: daily close above $191.25.
5 · Current Wave Analysis
The active wave is the decline from the $191.25 B-wave high. As long as price holds below $144-$152 (the bounce's Fib band) the path of least resistance is toward and through $114.62.
Item
Reading
Decline (A/1) length
222.37 pts ($336.99 -> $114.62)
Bounce (B/2) retrace
~34% of the decline ($114.62 -> $191.25)
Resistance band (of bounce)
61.8% $143.89 / 50% $152.94
Key support / invalidation-down
$114.62 (Apr 2026 low)
Extension target if broken
$108 then lower toward $99
Wave-Pivot Indicator Table
Pivot
Date
Price
RSI_14
UO
Volume
Read
Cycle top
2025-11-03
$336.99
overbought
high
-
Momentum peak; start of decline
Intermediate (A)/1 low
2026-04-10
$114.62
oversold
low
high
Capitulation low
Intermediate (B)/2 high
2026-05-26
$191.25
~60
~58
spike
Failed counter-trend rally
Recent low
2026-06-12
$119.50
~40
low
elevated
Retest of the lows
Current bar
2026-06-26
$132.26
48.4
54.2
-
Weak bounce below SMA-200
Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $191.25 negates the immediate bearish count; a decisive break below $114.62 confirms the next leg down.
6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Layer
Timeframe
Current wave
Direction
Bias
Key support
Key resistance
Alignment
Macro
Weekly
Primary down
Down
Bearish
$114.62
$191.25
✓
Primary
Daily
(C)/3 down
Down
Bearish
$119.50
$144 / $153
✓
Intermediate
1-Hour
Counter-bounce
Up
Neutral
$119.90
$130 / $133
✓
Minor
30-Minute
Micro bounce
Up
Neutral
$122.15
$132.54
✓
Precision Layer Signals (1-Hour / 30-Minute)
Setup
Entry zone
Target
Stop
Confirmation
Bounce-to-sell (with trend)
$144-$153 rejection
$120 / $114
$192
1h reversal + daily close < $119.50
Reversal long (counter-trend, risky)
higher low > $119.50
$144 / $160
$114
daily close > $144, then > $191.25
Alignment narrative: All timeframes align bearish/corrective with only intraday bounces against the trend. The bias remains lower while price is below $144-$153 and the SMA-200; only a daily close back above $191.25 would change the structure to constructive.
7 · Waves — 1-Hour
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Bounce (B) - up
2026-04-10 09:30
2026-05-26 14:30
$114.62
$191.25
Decline - down
2026-05-26 14:30
2026-06-12 09:30
$191.25
$119.50
Bounce - up
2026-06-12 09:30
2026-06-15 10:30
$119.50
$132.80
Pullback - down
2026-06-15 10:30
2026-06-18 09:30
$132.80
$119.90
Bounce (in progress) - up
2026-06-18 09:30
-
$119.90
-
8 · Waves — Daily
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Cycle advance - up
2023-05-02
2025-11-03
$84.93
$336.99
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-11-03
-
$336.99
-
Intermediate (A)/1 - down
2025-11-03
2026-04-10
$336.99
$114.62
Intermediate (B)/2 - up
2026-04-10
2026-05-26
$114.62
$191.25
Intermediate (C)/3 - down (in progress)
2026-05-26
-
$191.25
-
9 · Waves — Weekly
Wave
Start
End
Start price
End price
Supercycle/Cycle advance - up
2018-05-25
2021-11-19
$24.76
$376.11
Cycle correction - down
2021-11-19
2023-05-02
$376.11
$84.93
Cycle advance - up
2023-05-02
2025-11-03
$84.93
$336.99
Primary correction - down (in progress)
2025-11-03
-
$336.99
-
10 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.